The weather pattern over California this week brought near normal conditions for the middle of August. The state is very dry, except for extreme northern California, north of the city of Ukiah. The Pacific High continues to dominate the Golden State steering most storms into the Pacific Northwest. However, rain did fall north of Ukiah, California from the tail end of cold fronts moving into the Northwest, ranging from a trace up to about half an inch of precipitation. Sky conditions were mostly clear for the rest of California. Daytime high temperatures throughout the state were seasonable with 60s and 70s along the immediate coast, 80s to upper 90s in the valley and foothills, uppers 90s to around 120 in the desert, and 70s through the lower 90s in the mountains.
Nut crops
Almond harvest remained underway. Some groves were still being irrigated. Walnut orchards were being prepared for harvest. Some walnut groves were also irrigated. Treatments for husk fly and mites continued in some areas.
Friday, September 05, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Kenya: "Ban cashew nut exports",
Kenya: "Ban cashew nut exports", State toldThe Government has been urged to ban the exportation of raw cashew nuts to revive the industry. The chairman of Millennium Management Limited, a local nut processing firm, Mr Charanjit Singh Hayer, said cashew nut processors only handle about 22,000 tons of the raw nuts produced in the country. He said that it was estimated that more was exported to India by other players in the industry.He was speaking to 38 MPs from the East African Legislative Assembly based in Arusha in Tanzania who paid him a courtesy call in his office.Mr Hayer said: "If the Government controls the marketing of the raw nuts in the country and leaves it to local processors, employment opportunities can be created."Severe problemsHe said that only four companies were involved in the processing of cashew-nuts in the country. Mr Hayer said that his company was faced with severe problems in getting raw nuts as they were being bought by traders who exported the produce to India.He added that they had collected only about 270 tonnes this season, enough to run the factory for only 30 days."The purpose of our tour is to give legislators the opportunity to see and learn the problems facing the private and public sectors in the region so that when we are talking in our Parliament we can see how to tackle the issues emerging in every member state," said Speaker Abdirahim Abdi.Source: allafrica.com
Monday, August 25, 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY HITS SE PEANUT BELT
TROPICAL STORM FAY HITS SE PEANUT BELT – Tropical Storm Fay pounded the Florida peanut belt and finally started moving its slow trek West across North Florida bringing lots of rain to the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina and Southern Alabama. Some parts of Florida received over 2 feet. The impact on peanuts is unknown, but drainage should be quick since the area was so dry and many farmers hope to get back to harvest next week. The rains should help the peanut crop, provided the peanuts can drain. Harvest in Georgia and Alabama has not started, likely after Labor Day.
UPDATE ON GEORGIA ACREAGE – Peanut Farm Market News had reported 653,156 acres, two percent higher than the estimated 640,000 acres from the 2008 peanut acreage estimate. FSA reported this week that some counties were late and now the certified acreage number is 684,680 acres, almost a 7% increase above the estimate and 31.6% above last year. This number could change again until about September 1. Top 10 counties on acreage are:
Worth – 33,902; Mitchell - 32,192; Decatur – 26,199; Early -25,892; Dooly – 24,711; Irwin - 24,477; Bulloch - 24,040; Coffee - 23,223; Miller – 22,943; and Colquitt - 21,880.
– Tropical Storm Fay pounded the Florida peanut belt and finally started moving its slow trek West across North Florida bringing lots of rain to the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina and Southern Alabama. Some parts of Florida received over 2 feet. The impact on peanuts is unknown, but drainage should be quick since the area was so dry and many farmers hope to get back to harvest next week. The rains should help the peanut crop, provided the peanuts can drain. Harvest in Georgia and Alabama has not started, likely after Labor Day.
UPDATE ON GEORGIA ACREAGE – Peanut Farm Market News had reported 653,156 acres, two percent higher than the estimated 640,000 acres from the 2008 peanut acreage estimate. FSA reported this week that some counties were late and now the certified acreage number is 684,680 acres, almost a 7% increase above the estimate and 31.6% above last year. This number could change again until about September 1. Top 10 counties on acreage are:
Worth – 33,902; Mitchell - 32,192; Decatur – 26,199; Early -25,892; Dooly – 24,711; Irwin - 24,477; Bulloch - 24,040; Coffee - 23,223; Miller – 22,943; and Colquitt - 21,880.
UPDATE ON GEORGIA ACREAGE – Peanut Farm Market News had reported 653,156 acres, two percent higher than the estimated 640,000 acres from the 2008 peanut acreage estimate. FSA reported this week that some counties were late and now the certified acreage number is 684,680 acres, almost a 7% increase above the estimate and 31.6% above last year. This number could change again until about September 1. Top 10 counties on acreage are:
Worth – 33,902; Mitchell - 32,192; Decatur – 26,199; Early -25,892; Dooly – 24,711; Irwin - 24,477; Bulloch - 24,040; Coffee - 23,223; Miller – 22,943; and Colquitt - 21,880.
– Tropical Storm Fay pounded the Florida peanut belt and finally started moving its slow trek West across North Florida bringing lots of rain to the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina and Southern Alabama. Some parts of Florida received over 2 feet. The impact on peanuts is unknown, but drainage should be quick since the area was so dry and many farmers hope to get back to harvest next week. The rains should help the peanut crop, provided the peanuts can drain. Harvest in Georgia and Alabama has not started, likely after Labor Day.
UPDATE ON GEORGIA ACREAGE – Peanut Farm Market News had reported 653,156 acres, two percent higher than the estimated 640,000 acres from the 2008 peanut acreage estimate. FSA reported this week that some counties were late and now the certified acreage number is 684,680 acres, almost a 7% increase above the estimate and 31.6% above last year. This number could change again until about September 1. Top 10 counties on acreage are:
Worth – 33,902; Mitchell - 32,192; Decatur – 26,199; Early -25,892; Dooly – 24,711; Irwin - 24,477; Bulloch - 24,040; Coffee - 23,223; Miller – 22,943; and Colquitt - 21,880.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Pecan Crop Outlook
Pecan Crop Outlook
Millions of pounds of pecans were shipped to China this year... which gave farmers in Georgia an unexpected boost in business. But as Eyewitness Reporter Kim Carapucci explains, this new demand from abroad will dramatically affect prices here in the U.S.
Some say pecan, others say pe-can. But either way, one thing's for sure... these nuts are about to get pricey.
Paul Joseph is the manager of the South Georgia Pecan Company gift shop. "You'll probably see a 10-15% increase in the price of pecans."Joseph has been in the pecan business for over 24 years and says he's never seen anything like this before."It's just simple economics with supply and demand. With China's demand going up three-fold this year over last year, it's just gonna put a lot more pressure here in the U.S."
Next year, the pecan crop is predicted to yield only half as much as last year...And with less supply and more demand, the price will only rise.Which is good news for farmers, but bad news for buyers.
Buck Paulk owns one of the largest pecan groves in South Georgia."We see expanding our market as a good thing. So I can't see any justification where it would be..anytime there's an increase in demand for your product that it could be anything but good."
Paul Joseph: "We're definitely concerned because people are having to spend so much money now for gas and necessities . Pecans are almost gonna be a luxury item this year and people probably won't buy as many."
Luxury or not, people will be shelling out more cash for these shelled nuts.
The prices are expected to rise by fall, so if you have a taste for pecans, you might want to buy them now.
Find this article at: http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/26936864.html
Millions of pounds of pecans were shipped to China this year... which gave farmers in Georgia an unexpected boost in business. But as Eyewitness Reporter Kim Carapucci explains, this new demand from abroad will dramatically affect prices here in the U.S.
Some say pecan, others say pe-can. But either way, one thing's for sure... these nuts are about to get pricey.
Paul Joseph is the manager of the South Georgia Pecan Company gift shop. "You'll probably see a 10-15% increase in the price of pecans."Joseph has been in the pecan business for over 24 years and says he's never seen anything like this before."It's just simple economics with supply and demand. With China's demand going up three-fold this year over last year, it's just gonna put a lot more pressure here in the U.S."
Next year, the pecan crop is predicted to yield only half as much as last year...And with less supply and more demand, the price will only rise.Which is good news for farmers, but bad news for buyers.
Buck Paulk owns one of the largest pecan groves in South Georgia."We see expanding our market as a good thing. So I can't see any justification where it would be..anytime there's an increase in demand for your product that it could be anything but good."
Paul Joseph: "We're definitely concerned because people are having to spend so much money now for gas and necessities . Pecans are almost gonna be a luxury item this year and people probably won't buy as many."
Luxury or not, people will be shelling out more cash for these shelled nuts.
The prices are expected to rise by fall, so if you have a taste for pecans, you might want to buy them now.
Find this article at: http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/26936864.html
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Global California almond shipments soar
Aug 12, 2008 10:25 AM
Exports of California almonds soared for the marketing year just closed, according to the Almond Board of California, Modesto, Calif. Almonds soared to new all-time records, indicating continued strong global demand.
Record shipments accompany the industry’s largest crop ever. 1.38 billion pounds of almonds, 24 percent more than the previous year, were harvested during 2007.
Total worldwide shipments grew by 18 percent over the prior crop year to reach 1.26 billion pounds. Specifically, shipments within the U.S. rose 7.2 percent to reach 394.8 million pounds. The U.S. is the largest single market for California almonds. Domestic shipments accounted for 31 percent share versus 69 percent for export shipments.
Almond shipments to overseas markets increased to 866.4 million pounds, up 24 percent over the previous year, led by strong growth in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Notably, almond exports have achieved new monthly records for the past 13 consecutive months.
Western Europe and Asia remained the top two export destinations on a regional basis, with shares of 54 percent and 23 percent respectively. Exports to Western Europe grew 24 percent over the previous year, while exports to Asia grew 20 percent, driven by strong demand in markets such as India, China and Korea where new shipment highs were recorded. In terms of individual markets, the top five export destinations were Spain, Germany, India, Japan and China.
“The growers and handlers of California almonds have set the stage for this unprecedented growth with forward-thinking, strategically sound programs administered by the Almond Board of California. From the research in the field aimed at creating a more sustainable environment for growing almonds to the investment in research to understand almond nutritional benefits, the entire almond community has been focused on making record crops and record demand a reality,” said Almond Board President Richard Waycott. “In fact, almonds continue to be the second most frequently used nut worldwide for new nut product introductions and if demand continues to grow at this rate, almonds will become the number one nut for global new product introductions in 2008.”
Find this article at: http://www.westernfarmpress.com/tree-nut-crops/almond-shipments-0812/index.html
Exports of California almonds soared for the marketing year just closed, according to the Almond Board of California, Modesto, Calif. Almonds soared to new all-time records, indicating continued strong global demand.
Record shipments accompany the industry’s largest crop ever. 1.38 billion pounds of almonds, 24 percent more than the previous year, were harvested during 2007.
Total worldwide shipments grew by 18 percent over the prior crop year to reach 1.26 billion pounds. Specifically, shipments within the U.S. rose 7.2 percent to reach 394.8 million pounds. The U.S. is the largest single market for California almonds. Domestic shipments accounted for 31 percent share versus 69 percent for export shipments.
Almond shipments to overseas markets increased to 866.4 million pounds, up 24 percent over the previous year, led by strong growth in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Notably, almond exports have achieved new monthly records for the past 13 consecutive months.
Western Europe and Asia remained the top two export destinations on a regional basis, with shares of 54 percent and 23 percent respectively. Exports to Western Europe grew 24 percent over the previous year, while exports to Asia grew 20 percent, driven by strong demand in markets such as India, China and Korea where new shipment highs were recorded. In terms of individual markets, the top five export destinations were Spain, Germany, India, Japan and China.
“The growers and handlers of California almonds have set the stage for this unprecedented growth with forward-thinking, strategically sound programs administered by the Almond Board of California. From the research in the field aimed at creating a more sustainable environment for growing almonds to the investment in research to understand almond nutritional benefits, the entire almond community has been focused on making record crops and record demand a reality,” said Almond Board President Richard Waycott. “In fact, almonds continue to be the second most frequently used nut worldwide for new nut product introductions and if demand continues to grow at this rate, almonds will become the number one nut for global new product introductions in 2008.”
Find this article at: http://www.westernfarmpress.com/tree-nut-crops/almond-shipments-0812/index.html
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Weekly Cashews Update
Aug 2, 2008
Cashew market undertone has been steady this week – although there was very little activity, prices are holding up and there is hardly any selling interest at lower levels. Prices continued to be in a wide range i.e. 3.40-3.55 for W240, 3,30-3.45 for W320, 3.10-3.25 FOB for W450. Splits and Pieces moved up in Indian market but were reportedly soft in international market
Traditionally, July is quiet but it has been unusually quiet this year… this makes it all the more difficult to judge market trend. If buying interest for nearbys is limited, prices may ease a bit as small & medium packers will have product to sell for Aug-Oct shipment. If buyers need to cover large quantities for this period, then prices will remain around current levels and may even move up a bit
During Aug/Sep, EU buyers do major portion of their buying for the next year and USA buyers do their top-up buying for rest of the current year. This year, there is a lot of uncertainty about both and this will make it difficult for all stakeholders to take decisions on pricing & extent of position taking.. The historically high prices and higher level of uncertainty are a challenge (and for some, an opportunity)
General feeling is that prices will remain around current levels or little higher in the coming weeks – it will be interesting to see what impact this has on the volume of business that people are able (willing) to do for 2009 shipments
What is your opinion about market situation & trend ? Would appreciate your views & forecast on consumption / demand trends and any other info & news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew market undertone has been steady this week – although there was very little activity, prices are holding up and there is hardly any selling interest at lower levels. Prices continued to be in a wide range i.e. 3.40-3.55 for W240, 3,30-3.45 for W320, 3.10-3.25 FOB for W450. Splits and Pieces moved up in Indian market but were reportedly soft in international market
Traditionally, July is quiet but it has been unusually quiet this year… this makes it all the more difficult to judge market trend. If buying interest for nearbys is limited, prices may ease a bit as small & medium packers will have product to sell for Aug-Oct shipment. If buyers need to cover large quantities for this period, then prices will remain around current levels and may even move up a bit
During Aug/Sep, EU buyers do major portion of their buying for the next year and USA buyers do their top-up buying for rest of the current year. This year, there is a lot of uncertainty about both and this will make it difficult for all stakeholders to take decisions on pricing & extent of position taking.. The historically high prices and higher level of uncertainty are a challenge (and for some, an opportunity)
General feeling is that prices will remain around current levels or little higher in the coming weeks – it will be interesting to see what impact this has on the volume of business that people are able (willing) to do for 2009 shipments
What is your opinion about market situation & trend ? Would appreciate your views & forecast on consumption / demand trends and any other info & news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Thursday, July 31, 2008

Food industry bitten by its lobbying success
By LARRY MARGASAK Associated Press WriterWASHINGTON — One of the worst outbreaks of foodborne illness in the U.S. is teaching the food industry the truth of the adage, "Be careful what you wish for because you might get it."The industry pressured the Bush administration years ago to limit the paperwork companies would have to keep to help U.S. health investigators quickly trace produce that sickens consumers, according to interviews and government reports reviewed by The Associated Press.
In this Feb. 2, 2007 file photo, Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson speaks at a political forum in Henderson, Nev. Thompson had pushed to increase the number of food safety inspections, and is now part of a coalition lobbying to increase the FDA budget and turn around several years of stagnant spending on food. Thompson has acknowledged he had to compromise when the food industry opposed tough food tracing and record-keeping rules. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)The White House also killed a plan to require the industry to maintain electronic tracking records that could be reviewed easily during a crisis to search for an outbreak's source. Companies complained the proposals were too burdensome and costly, and warned they could disrupt the availability of consumers' favorite foods.The apparent but unintended consequences of the lobbying success: a paper record-keeping system that has slowed investigators, with estimated business losses of $250 million. So far, nearly 1,300 people in 43 states, the District of Columbia and Canada have been sickened by salmonella since April.Investigators initially focused on tomatoes as a culprit. Now they are turning attention to jalapeno peppers.A former member of Bush's Cabinet and three former senior officials in the Food and Drug Administration told the AP that government food safety experts did not get the strong record-keeping and trace-back system originally proposed under a bioterrorism law to cope with a major foodborne illness."In retrospect, yes, if they (the regulations) had been broader and a bit more far-reaching, it could have helped with this," said Robert Brackett, senior vice president of the Grocery Manufacturers Association. "It wouldn't have hurt, for sure." Brackett formerly was a top safety official at the FDA.Under pressure in 2003 and 2004, the White House agreed to dilute record-keeping proposals by FDA safety experts."If the FDA had been given the resources and authority years ago that it asked for to solve these kinds of problems, I think we would have solved this already," said William Hubbard, a former FDA associate commissioner.Tommy Thompson, who was health secretary during the industry's lobbying campaign, acknowledged that a more robust food-tracking system — opposed by business groups as too expensive — could have helped stem the current illnesses and business losses."We went in with the larger package but knew we had to compromise," Thompson told the AP. "I was satisfied with this being the first step. It's always better to be a Monday morning quarterback. We could have ended up with nothing. If we had more, would it help the situation now? Yes."According to government records reviewed by the AP, business groups met at least 10 times with the White House between March 2003 and March 2004, as the FDA regulations were under debate. Food industry lobbyists successfully blunted proposals using arguments familiar in other regulatory debates: The government's plans would saddle business with unnecessary and costly regulations."The FDA's strong proposed bioterrorism rules were significantly watered down before they became final," said Caroline Smith DeWaal, food safety director at the Washington-based Center for Science in the Public Interest. The private advocacy group obtained the White House meeting records under the Freedom of Information Act and provided them to the AP.Participants in the meetings included companies and trade groups up and down the food chain, including Altria Group Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc., when Altria was Kraft's parent; The Kroger Co.; Safeway Inc.; ConAgra Foods Inc.; The Procter & Gamble Co.; the American Forest and Paper Association; the Polystyrene Packaging Council; the Glass Packaging Institute; the Cocoa Merchants' Association of America; the World Shipping Council; and the Food Marketing Institute.The Grocery Manufacturers Association spent $2.6 million on lobbing in 2003 and 2004, the period when the FDA rules were under consideration, according to federal lobbying records. The Food Marketing Institute spent $1.7 million during the period. The figures were for all lobbying by the trade groups and on their behalf.The grocery group complained during the comment period that the FDA was overstepping authority that Congress had granted under the new bioterrorism law. It said the FDA wanted a "cradle-to-grave record-keeping system" to track every morsel of food delivered to every retail grocery shelf and said more tracking information does not always produce a better result.The marketing institute said a proposed tracking system as envisioned by the FDA "would be exorbitantly costly."The food industry now says it will agree to a better tracing system operated by the government, as long as the industry can advise how to design it."We support the government requiring industry to have traceability systems that are effective and work," said Jill Hollingsworth, group vice president for food safety programs at the marketing institute. "But industry has to come up with a system that follows products throughout the food chain."The FDA official in charge of the current salmonella investigation, David Acheson, said the agency slowly is reviewing paper records to help trace tainted produce. But Acheson disputed arguments that an electronic records system would necessarily have helped investigators."We still haven't managed to figure out this outbreak," he said in an interview days before the case's biggest break — discovery of a tainted Mexican-grown jalapeno in a southern Texas warehouse.The White House Office of Management and Budget defended its meetings with food industry groups in 2003 and 2004, saying it regularly meets with companies and individuals with a stake in proposed government rules."Our door is open for anyone — from non-profits, industry representatives to individual citizens — who request meetings on regulations," OMB spokeswoman Jane Lee said. "These are listening sessions in conjunction with personnel from the regulating agency and we publicly post these meetings online."
By LARRY MARGASAK Associated Press WriterWASHINGTON — One of the worst outbreaks of foodborne illness in the U.S. is teaching the food industry the truth of the adage, "Be careful what you wish for because you might get it."The industry pressured the Bush administration years ago to limit the paperwork companies would have to keep to help U.S. health investigators quickly trace produce that sickens consumers, according to interviews and government reports reviewed by The Associated Press.
In this Feb. 2, 2007 file photo, Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson speaks at a political forum in Henderson, Nev. Thompson had pushed to increase the number of food safety inspections, and is now part of a coalition lobbying to increase the FDA budget and turn around several years of stagnant spending on food. Thompson has acknowledged he had to compromise when the food industry opposed tough food tracing and record-keeping rules. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)The White House also killed a plan to require the industry to maintain electronic tracking records that could be reviewed easily during a crisis to search for an outbreak's source. Companies complained the proposals were too burdensome and costly, and warned they could disrupt the availability of consumers' favorite foods.The apparent but unintended consequences of the lobbying success: a paper record-keeping system that has slowed investigators, with estimated business losses of $250 million. So far, nearly 1,300 people in 43 states, the District of Columbia and Canada have been sickened by salmonella since April.Investigators initially focused on tomatoes as a culprit. Now they are turning attention to jalapeno peppers.A former member of Bush's Cabinet and three former senior officials in the Food and Drug Administration told the AP that government food safety experts did not get the strong record-keeping and trace-back system originally proposed under a bioterrorism law to cope with a major foodborne illness."In retrospect, yes, if they (the regulations) had been broader and a bit more far-reaching, it could have helped with this," said Robert Brackett, senior vice president of the Grocery Manufacturers Association. "It wouldn't have hurt, for sure." Brackett formerly was a top safety official at the FDA.Under pressure in 2003 and 2004, the White House agreed to dilute record-keeping proposals by FDA safety experts."If the FDA had been given the resources and authority years ago that it asked for to solve these kinds of problems, I think we would have solved this already," said William Hubbard, a former FDA associate commissioner.Tommy Thompson, who was health secretary during the industry's lobbying campaign, acknowledged that a more robust food-tracking system — opposed by business groups as too expensive — could have helped stem the current illnesses and business losses."We went in with the larger package but knew we had to compromise," Thompson told the AP. "I was satisfied with this being the first step. It's always better to be a Monday morning quarterback. We could have ended up with nothing. If we had more, would it help the situation now? Yes."According to government records reviewed by the AP, business groups met at least 10 times with the White House between March 2003 and March 2004, as the FDA regulations were under debate. Food industry lobbyists successfully blunted proposals using arguments familiar in other regulatory debates: The government's plans would saddle business with unnecessary and costly regulations."The FDA's strong proposed bioterrorism rules were significantly watered down before they became final," said Caroline Smith DeWaal, food safety director at the Washington-based Center for Science in the Public Interest. The private advocacy group obtained the White House meeting records under the Freedom of Information Act and provided them to the AP.Participants in the meetings included companies and trade groups up and down the food chain, including Altria Group Inc. and Kraft Foods Inc., when Altria was Kraft's parent; The Kroger Co.; Safeway Inc.; ConAgra Foods Inc.; The Procter & Gamble Co.; the American Forest and Paper Association; the Polystyrene Packaging Council; the Glass Packaging Institute; the Cocoa Merchants' Association of America; the World Shipping Council; and the Food Marketing Institute.The Grocery Manufacturers Association spent $2.6 million on lobbing in 2003 and 2004, the period when the FDA rules were under consideration, according to federal lobbying records. The Food Marketing Institute spent $1.7 million during the period. The figures were for all lobbying by the trade groups and on their behalf.The grocery group complained during the comment period that the FDA was overstepping authority that Congress had granted under the new bioterrorism law. It said the FDA wanted a "cradle-to-grave record-keeping system" to track every morsel of food delivered to every retail grocery shelf and said more tracking information does not always produce a better result.The marketing institute said a proposed tracking system as envisioned by the FDA "would be exorbitantly costly."The food industry now says it will agree to a better tracing system operated by the government, as long as the industry can advise how to design it."We support the government requiring industry to have traceability systems that are effective and work," said Jill Hollingsworth, group vice president for food safety programs at the marketing institute. "But industry has to come up with a system that follows products throughout the food chain."The FDA official in charge of the current salmonella investigation, David Acheson, said the agency slowly is reviewing paper records to help trace tainted produce. But Acheson disputed arguments that an electronic records system would necessarily have helped investigators."We still haven't managed to figure out this outbreak," he said in an interview days before the case's biggest break — discovery of a tainted Mexican-grown jalapeno in a southern Texas warehouse.The White House Office of Management and Budget defended its meetings with food industry groups in 2003 and 2004, saying it regularly meets with companies and individuals with a stake in proposed government rules."Our door is open for anyone — from non-profits, industry representatives to individual citizens — who request meetings on regulations," OMB spokeswoman Jane Lee said. "These are listening sessions in conjunction with personnel from the regulating agency and we publicly post these meetings online."
Monday, June 23, 2008
Unbridled Cashew Speculation - History Lesson 102
June 20, 2008
By David Rosenthal
"Enhancing" contracts?
On May 28th members of the Association of Food Industries Nut and Agricultural Section met with diplomats at the Vietnamese Embassy in Washington DC to discuss the magnitude of cashew defaults from Vietnam over the past several months. It is reported that approximately 2000 container loads have been defaulted on by Vietnamese cashew shippers between November 2007 and April 2008. These actions by the Vietnamese shippers have had a major impact on cashew prices with some grades increasing by over $2.00 per pound. Importers are being forced to pay 'enhancements' in order to have their contracted product shipped. This puts the importing community in a position to lose millions of dollars, depending on the volume of contractual obligations to roasters at lower market prices. Several importers who had agreed to these enhancements have been caught off guard when shippers again refused to ship already renegotiated containers unless they agreed to further increases to the enhancements as a result of higher market prices at the time of shipment. Diplomats at the Vietnamese Embassy gave very little hope to the importers and roasters who attended the May meeting. They asked for the AFI members affected by the defaults to have sympathy for the suppliers who have suffered due to higher production costs, increases in raw material and high inflation rates. One roaster commented that he could understand the plight of the Vietnamese cashew suppliers if the enhancements were a one time event, but that asking for further enhancements to release shipments was unsustainable. Three weeks have passed since this meeting and in this short time the FOB price on 320's has moved up by almost $0.35 per pound.
Flashback to 1999
Industry wide defaults by cashew suppliers are not new to the industry. In 1999 Indian shippers defaulted in unprecedented numbers, resulting in tremendous market increases, and huge losses were absorbed by the importing and roasting community. Ironically, these actions by Indian shippers resulted in increased support of the Vietnamese cashew industry. Now that we have experienced this behavior from both major cashew producing countries we may have to reassess the way we conduct business, as taking forward positions has proven to be a very risky venture. Understandably this is a difficult proposition since retailers continue to demand long term contractual agreements to lock in pricing, in some cases for more than one year. With a market certainty time frame of approximately 3 months, the speculative nature of the business has always presented a risk for the cashew commodity trader. Traditionally, if a trader called the market wrong he stood to lose a great deal of money. In today's environment, the trader runs the risk that, even if he calls the market right, his profitable forward position may turn out to be a worthless printout of uncollectible contracts.
Speculative Trading Now Riskier
The current conditions in the cashew market clearly indicate the high price paid for aggressive speculative trading practices from unreliable sources. The desire to get the lowest price sends many importers to small, poorly funded suppliers who not only have questionable manufacturing practices, but also have proven to be unreliable when markets go against them. The ripple effects of this behavior became so far reaching this year that even major Vietnamese suppliers that have been historically reliable caved in to the temptation to demand "price enhancements" in order to fulfill contractual obligations.
Hard Lessons
The cashew industry has experienced the same devastating events twice within one decade. Price increases of over $2.00 lb. are bound to have a negative impact on business with retailers - indeed cashew consumption is already down as consumers, faced with increased fuel and food expenses, cut back on snacks and luxury items. No one in the importing or roasting sectors is benefiting from the present conditions. The great American philosopher, George Santayana once said "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". We've had two hard lessons - do we really want to continue on this path?
www.cashewconcern.com
By David Rosenthal
"Enhancing" contracts?
On May 28th members of the Association of Food Industries Nut and Agricultural Section met with diplomats at the Vietnamese Embassy in Washington DC to discuss the magnitude of cashew defaults from Vietnam over the past several months. It is reported that approximately 2000 container loads have been defaulted on by Vietnamese cashew shippers between November 2007 and April 2008. These actions by the Vietnamese shippers have had a major impact on cashew prices with some grades increasing by over $2.00 per pound. Importers are being forced to pay 'enhancements' in order to have their contracted product shipped. This puts the importing community in a position to lose millions of dollars, depending on the volume of contractual obligations to roasters at lower market prices. Several importers who had agreed to these enhancements have been caught off guard when shippers again refused to ship already renegotiated containers unless they agreed to further increases to the enhancements as a result of higher market prices at the time of shipment. Diplomats at the Vietnamese Embassy gave very little hope to the importers and roasters who attended the May meeting. They asked for the AFI members affected by the defaults to have sympathy for the suppliers who have suffered due to higher production costs, increases in raw material and high inflation rates. One roaster commented that he could understand the plight of the Vietnamese cashew suppliers if the enhancements were a one time event, but that asking for further enhancements to release shipments was unsustainable. Three weeks have passed since this meeting and in this short time the FOB price on 320's has moved up by almost $0.35 per pound.
Flashback to 1999
Industry wide defaults by cashew suppliers are not new to the industry. In 1999 Indian shippers defaulted in unprecedented numbers, resulting in tremendous market increases, and huge losses were absorbed by the importing and roasting community. Ironically, these actions by Indian shippers resulted in increased support of the Vietnamese cashew industry. Now that we have experienced this behavior from both major cashew producing countries we may have to reassess the way we conduct business, as taking forward positions has proven to be a very risky venture. Understandably this is a difficult proposition since retailers continue to demand long term contractual agreements to lock in pricing, in some cases for more than one year. With a market certainty time frame of approximately 3 months, the speculative nature of the business has always presented a risk for the cashew commodity trader. Traditionally, if a trader called the market wrong he stood to lose a great deal of money. In today's environment, the trader runs the risk that, even if he calls the market right, his profitable forward position may turn out to be a worthless printout of uncollectible contracts.
Speculative Trading Now Riskier
The current conditions in the cashew market clearly indicate the high price paid for aggressive speculative trading practices from unreliable sources. The desire to get the lowest price sends many importers to small, poorly funded suppliers who not only have questionable manufacturing practices, but also have proven to be unreliable when markets go against them. The ripple effects of this behavior became so far reaching this year that even major Vietnamese suppliers that have been historically reliable caved in to the temptation to demand "price enhancements" in order to fulfill contractual obligations.
Hard Lessons
The cashew industry has experienced the same devastating events twice within one decade. Price increases of over $2.00 lb. are bound to have a negative impact on business with retailers - indeed cashew consumption is already down as consumers, faced with increased fuel and food expenses, cut back on snacks and luxury items. No one in the importing or roasting sectors is benefiting from the present conditions. The great American philosopher, George Santayana once said "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". We've had two hard lessons - do we really want to continue on this path?
www.cashewconcern.com
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Cashew prices firm up on lower global output
Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia may witness fall in crop
Ground realities
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains.
Firm price trends likely to persist till the end of the current year
Our Bureau
Kochi, June 16 Cashew prices have begun to firm up on projections of lower production in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia this year.
Raw nut production
Raw cashew nuts production for 2007-08 is expected to be lower by 20 and 10 per cent in Vietnam and Brazil respectively, while the Indian crop is expected to be normal, the Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI) has pointed out.
Preliminary indications are that shortfalls are expected from the Indonesian crop as well.
Increased global cashew consumption and greater consumption from India are also expected to contribute to the firm price trends.
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions of the country such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains. Prices, which had been reigning low for close to a decade have begun to climb back to the peaks of 1999.
Record price
F.o.b prices of cashew grade W-320 have risen to $3.04 a pound in April, closing in on the record price of $3.16 a pound attained in August 1999.
Prices had subsequently touched a low of $1.66 a pound during March 2003. The price spurt of 1999 was mainly contributed by rising domestic and global consumption, CEPCI said.
Rise in acreage
However, there has been significant growth in area and production of cashew since then. The area under cashew registered a growth of 4.2 per cent to 8.5 lakh hectares and production grew by eight per cent to 6.2 lakh tonnes in 2007-08, as against the previous year. This is far ahead of the 7.06 lakh hectares under the crop and 5.2 lakh tonnes production of 1999.
On the processing front, import of raw cashew nut this year was reported to be 6.05 lakh tonnes and the kernel exports stood at 1.14 lakh tonnes. The domestic consumption is also expected to be higher this year on account of increased disposable income of the people and better health awareness. Though raw cashew nut imports have risen this year, kernel exports have dropped due to the sharp appreciation in the value of the rupee.
Trend to persist
Going by the present trends in production, consumption and growing purchasing power in the hands of the consumers, industry sources were optimistic that the firm price trends would persist to the end of the current year and future trends would become evident with the next crop.
Ground realities
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains.
Firm price trends likely to persist till the end of the current year
Our Bureau
Kochi, June 16 Cashew prices have begun to firm up on projections of lower production in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia this year.
Raw nut production
Raw cashew nuts production for 2007-08 is expected to be lower by 20 and 10 per cent in Vietnam and Brazil respectively, while the Indian crop is expected to be normal, the Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI) has pointed out.
Preliminary indications are that shortfalls are expected from the Indonesian crop as well.
Increased global cashew consumption and greater consumption from India are also expected to contribute to the firm price trends.
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions of the country such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains. Prices, which had been reigning low for close to a decade have begun to climb back to the peaks of 1999.
Record price
F.o.b prices of cashew grade W-320 have risen to $3.04 a pound in April, closing in on the record price of $3.16 a pound attained in August 1999.
Prices had subsequently touched a low of $1.66 a pound during March 2003. The price spurt of 1999 was mainly contributed by rising domestic and global consumption, CEPCI said.
Rise in acreage
However, there has been significant growth in area and production of cashew since then. The area under cashew registered a growth of 4.2 per cent to 8.5 lakh hectares and production grew by eight per cent to 6.2 lakh tonnes in 2007-08, as against the previous year. This is far ahead of the 7.06 lakh hectares under the crop and 5.2 lakh tonnes production of 1999.
On the processing front, import of raw cashew nut this year was reported to be 6.05 lakh tonnes and the kernel exports stood at 1.14 lakh tonnes. The domestic consumption is also expected to be higher this year on account of increased disposable income of the people and better health awareness. Though raw cashew nut imports have risen this year, kernel exports have dropped due to the sharp appreciation in the value of the rupee.
Trend to persist
Going by the present trends in production, consumption and growing purchasing power in the hands of the consumers, industry sources were optimistic that the firm price trends would persist to the end of the current year and future trends would become evident with the next crop.
Monday, June 16, 2008
India: Cashew nut union leader shot dead this is really getting ugly
India: Cashew nut union leader shot dead at ChatrapurIn a stunning incident, K Srinivash Rao, a union leader of cashew nut traders has been shot dead on broad day light at Chatrapur, the district headquarter town of Ganjam on Saturday. According to the cashew nut traders of nearby areas who were gathered at the post mortem centre at MKCG Medical College, two miscreants riding on a motorbike on the highway alleged fired two rounds at him from the back when Srinivash along with U Ramesh, a businessman returning from the factory in Chatrapur.The local people in Chhatrapur says the fateful incident took place at around 7.30 am near the Ujuli maa temple, outskirts of chhatrapur. Srinivash, president of the Ganjam district union of cashew nut traders has received two bullets; one below his neck and another at back near backbone. He had been taken to the hospital at Chatrapur and then shifted to the MKCG Medical but declared dead after some time in MKCG.Ramesh who was shocked after seeing the deadly seen lost his consciousness after some time of the incident and was not in a condition to reveal all the details about the murder. Meanwhile National Congress party (NCP) leader Rabi Rath demanded a crime branch inquiry into the murder of Srinivash, adding that he was very popular among the local businessman.
Monday, June 02, 2008
Weekly Cashew Update
May 31, 2008
The Cashew market is entering uncharted waters. There has not been much activity this week but undertone is very firm. Business has been done W240 around 3.45, W320 between 3.20 and 3.25, W450 around 3.00-3.05 FOB from India. Most of the business in W320 was with USA for shipments upto Sep but there were reoorts of some business for forwards as well. Stray business being done to off markets few cents higher.
Some processors in Vietnam have been selling few cents lower than India but business being done only for nearbys. Shipments of old re-negotiated contracts is reported to be slow. Buyers say they come to know price they have to pay for each lot only when it is actually shipped !
RCN prices have also moved up. Price for some goods shipped and under shipment are being re-negotiated. Some traders are re-selling afloat parcels at higher prices to other buyers. RCN still available in IVC are with lower yields. Situation in Guinea Bissau is very messy. Over 50,000mt have arrived in port but very small quantity has been shipped. It is reported that sellers are holding buyers to ransom, playing one against the other. Already, re-negotiated prices are about 300 dollars per mt (equiv to 60 cents per lb, kernel basis) higher than original prices and it is still not certain what prices will finally have to be paid to get the goods.
For the time being, buyers (RCN and kernels) have no option but to keep buying what they need to fulfill their delivery commitments. It will be several months before things come close to normal flow of supplies.
If - and only if - demand slows down significantly in coming weeks, we can expect some stability in prices this year; otherwise the firmness will continue till end of the year. And If current firmness continues till beginning of last quarter, RCN prices will be high in Brazil + Indonesia + East Africa leading to higher prices in first quarter 2009 as well.
We will be entering the third quarter - which is traditionally a busy period - with lot of uncertainty and consequent volatility. Next few months are going to be very difficult for all stakeholders – instability distorts trends and decision making becomes difficult
Would appreciate your comments on market situtation, views & forecast of demand & market trend and any other news / info AND opinion
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
The Cashew market is entering uncharted waters. There has not been much activity this week but undertone is very firm. Business has been done W240 around 3.45, W320 between 3.20 and 3.25, W450 around 3.00-3.05 FOB from India. Most of the business in W320 was with USA for shipments upto Sep but there were reoorts of some business for forwards as well. Stray business being done to off markets few cents higher.
Some processors in Vietnam have been selling few cents lower than India but business being done only for nearbys. Shipments of old re-negotiated contracts is reported to be slow. Buyers say they come to know price they have to pay for each lot only when it is actually shipped !
RCN prices have also moved up. Price for some goods shipped and under shipment are being re-negotiated. Some traders are re-selling afloat parcels at higher prices to other buyers. RCN still available in IVC are with lower yields. Situation in Guinea Bissau is very messy. Over 50,000mt have arrived in port but very small quantity has been shipped. It is reported that sellers are holding buyers to ransom, playing one against the other. Already, re-negotiated prices are about 300 dollars per mt (equiv to 60 cents per lb, kernel basis) higher than original prices and it is still not certain what prices will finally have to be paid to get the goods.
For the time being, buyers (RCN and kernels) have no option but to keep buying what they need to fulfill their delivery commitments. It will be several months before things come close to normal flow of supplies.
If - and only if - demand slows down significantly in coming weeks, we can expect some stability in prices this year; otherwise the firmness will continue till end of the year. And If current firmness continues till beginning of last quarter, RCN prices will be high in Brazil + Indonesia + East Africa leading to higher prices in first quarter 2009 as well.
We will be entering the third quarter - which is traditionally a busy period - with lot of uncertainty and consequent volatility. Next few months are going to be very difficult for all stakeholders – instability distorts trends and decision making becomes difficult
Would appreciate your comments on market situtation, views & forecast of demand & market trend and any other news / info AND opinion
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Peanut Update
1 person killed, 1 wounded
1 person killed, 1 wounded Another attack on cashew harvesters in SenegalArmed men opened fire on a group of villagers as they tried to harvest cashew nuts Thursday in southern Senegal, killing one person and wounding another, authorities said. The attack came two weeks after a group of armed men rounded up about 20 villagers in the area and sliced off their left ears with machetes in a warning to leave the cashew trees alone. Cashew nuts, one of the restive Casamance region's more lucrative crops, are regularly harvested by villagers, bandits and rebel fighters struggling to survive in the bush.The villagers were attacked Thursday morning outside the village of Baraka-Bounao, near the country's border with Guinea-Bissau, said Lucien Gomis, president of the rural department that includes the village. Police confirmed the incident. Military officials said the villagers went out to harvest without asking for a military escort, as officials have recommended. "Our people in the zone were alerted by the sound of shooting," Lt. Malamine Camara, a regional spokesman, said. Camara said the shooters had left by the time his men got to the site.It was unclear if any organized group was behind the attack. Victims of the previous attack had said their assailants claimed to be rebel fighters with the Movement of the Democratic Forces, which has waged a low-level insurgency against Senegal's government since 1983. The group denied any involvement in the attack.Casamance, separated from the rest of Senegal by Gambia, has been plagued by sporadic violence for years as rebels fought for independence and against each other. The region also is sown with land mines, and bandits regularly attack vehicles on its roads. More than 1,200 people have been killed in more than two decades of fighting in the region.Source: iht.com
Monday, May 19, 2008
Weekly Cashews Update
May 17, 2008
Cashew prices moved up a few cents this week due to lack of offers. Some business was done at the higher prices e.g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.05 FOB, W450 around 2.85 FOB for shipments upto Oct.
From India, limited quantities are available for nearbys and due to the high RCN prices, there is very little interest to sell forward positions. Business with Vietnam is for nearbys only as buyers willing to buy forwards from very few processors there.
Normally, forward trading should be at peak during this main harvest period but due to the high prices & uncertainty everybody wants to play it safe PLUS number of forward players is limited due to the overhang of recent problem
Until inventory levels and supply lines come back close to normal levels, it will be very difficult to know the real usage & demand trends. Increase in all costs and general increase in prices of all commodities will also have some impact on the Nuts sector - price as well as demand. This means that taking forward positions will continue to be difficult for both sellers and buyers
Guinea Bissau RCN prices have moved up but these levels cannot be supported unless kernel prices move up as well. If kernel market softens or demand slows down, traders will find it difficult to realise the high prices being negotiated now. Despite a good crop, shipments from IVC continue to be slow and there are reports that yields of goods now arriving in Abidjan are quite low
We continue to feel that short & medium trend will remain firm and this could well spillover into early 2009 (the last time prices crossed 3.00 – in 1999 - they remained around that level for about seven months from May to Dec and started declining from Jan 2000 with the big decline happening only in 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2000)
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views / forecast of demand and market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew prices moved up a few cents this week due to lack of offers. Some business was done at the higher prices e.g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.05 FOB, W450 around 2.85 FOB for shipments upto Oct.
From India, limited quantities are available for nearbys and due to the high RCN prices, there is very little interest to sell forward positions. Business with Vietnam is for nearbys only as buyers willing to buy forwards from very few processors there.
Normally, forward trading should be at peak during this main harvest period but due to the high prices & uncertainty everybody wants to play it safe PLUS number of forward players is limited due to the overhang of recent problem
Until inventory levels and supply lines come back close to normal levels, it will be very difficult to know the real usage & demand trends. Increase in all costs and general increase in prices of all commodities will also have some impact on the Nuts sector - price as well as demand. This means that taking forward positions will continue to be difficult for both sellers and buyers
Guinea Bissau RCN prices have moved up but these levels cannot be supported unless kernel prices move up as well. If kernel market softens or demand slows down, traders will find it difficult to realise the high prices being negotiated now. Despite a good crop, shipments from IVC continue to be slow and there are reports that yields of goods now arriving in Abidjan are quite low
We continue to feel that short & medium trend will remain firm and this could well spillover into early 2009 (the last time prices crossed 3.00 – in 1999 - they remained around that level for about seven months from May to Dec and started declining from Jan 2000 with the big decline happening only in 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2000)
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views / forecast of demand and market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Pecan Market Update May 5,2008
Cold storage holdings for the month of April were reported to be 331,339,000 pounds. This is a slight increase of 3.5 million Pecan pounds. This should be the peak. If history repeats itself, we most likely will begin reducing the cold storage holdings in April all the way through September – deducting what would appear to be around 160 million pounds. If so, the carry out would be approximately 171 million pounds at the end of September – which is high.
The uncharted waters that we have been mentioning in our recent market updates appear to be realistic. Here we are with a large cold storage number and what also looks like will be a large carry-out but the market remains very strong along with some sizes and grades being very short – particularly with halves.
It appears the reasons for this being the case are as follows:
We are going into the off-year; although, it’s too early to be sure of how short the crop will be. We will keep you informed.
Consumption of Pecans remains strong; furthermore, we are still getting heavy interest from customers still needing to contract needs for this year.
Walnut pieces remain strong and customers continue to look at pecans as an alternative supply.
Customers, for the most part, contracted solidly through December 2008.
Inshell pecans continue to be held to supply already written contracts. With that, inshell is still being held by growers and some shellers for China to cover their needs until new crop becomes available to ship.
China’s usage remains strong. The commerce department reported 29,432,578 pounds of inshell pecans have already been shipped to the orient through the month of February. The guess is that China will buy about 15 to 20 million more pounds between the end of February through the month of September of 2008.
It is definite that the uncharted waters are in full swing. As always and more than ever, proceed with caution.
Kind Regards,
Sam DiGregorio
Southwest Nut Company
The uncharted waters that we have been mentioning in our recent market updates appear to be realistic. Here we are with a large cold storage number and what also looks like will be a large carry-out but the market remains very strong along with some sizes and grades being very short – particularly with halves.
It appears the reasons for this being the case are as follows:
We are going into the off-year; although, it’s too early to be sure of how short the crop will be. We will keep you informed.
Consumption of Pecans remains strong; furthermore, we are still getting heavy interest from customers still needing to contract needs for this year.
Walnut pieces remain strong and customers continue to look at pecans as an alternative supply.
Customers, for the most part, contracted solidly through December 2008.
Inshell pecans continue to be held to supply already written contracts. With that, inshell is still being held by growers and some shellers for China to cover their needs until new crop becomes available to ship.
China’s usage remains strong. The commerce department reported 29,432,578 pounds of inshell pecans have already been shipped to the orient through the month of February. The guess is that China will buy about 15 to 20 million more pounds between the end of February through the month of September of 2008.
It is definite that the uncharted waters are in full swing. As always and more than ever, proceed with caution.
Kind Regards,
Sam DiGregorio
Southwest Nut Company
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Almond Crop Estimate 7 May 08
Almond Crop Estimate 7 May 08
Dear Friends:
1.46 Billion Lbs—that’s the almonds crop estimate released today by the Almond Board and USDA Calif Ag Statistics Service compiled from a grower survey of 251 growers representing 18% of the acreage. The estimated yield of 2212 lbs per acre on 660,000 estimated bearing acres would give us the 3rd record crop in a row and a yield just short of last year’s 2241 lbs/acre record.
Most in the industry were expecting an estimate in the 1.3 to 1.4 billion lbs range, so this estimate is a surprise on the high side. There may be some softening of prices in the short run in the Calif varieties. Nonpareil are hard to find now, so I would not expect and price reductions. In the long run, I expect the market can handle this crop size. We have a history of shipping more than expected when supply is available and prices are reasonable as they are now. Almonds are the lowest priced tree nut and many of the others are over 3 and 4 USD/lb.
Tomorrow we have a position report with April shipments. At that time, I’ll make another report with some crop inventory projections and comments on price reactions to the crop estimate.
Best regards, Ned
Dear Friends:
1.46 Billion Lbs—that’s the almonds crop estimate released today by the Almond Board and USDA Calif Ag Statistics Service compiled from a grower survey of 251 growers representing 18% of the acreage. The estimated yield of 2212 lbs per acre on 660,000 estimated bearing acres would give us the 3rd record crop in a row and a yield just short of last year’s 2241 lbs/acre record.
Most in the industry were expecting an estimate in the 1.3 to 1.4 billion lbs range, so this estimate is a surprise on the high side. There may be some softening of prices in the short run in the Calif varieties. Nonpareil are hard to find now, so I would not expect and price reductions. In the long run, I expect the market can handle this crop size. We have a history of shipping more than expected when supply is available and prices are reasonable as they are now. Almonds are the lowest priced tree nut and many of the others are over 3 and 4 USD/lb.
Tomorrow we have a position report with April shipments. At that time, I’ll make another report with some crop inventory projections and comments on price reactions to the crop estimate.
Best regards, Ned
Monday, May 05, 2008
Weekly cashews update
May 3, 2008
Cashew market is steady – with a slightly firm undertone for nearbys but not much activity for forwards. No change in prices in the last two weeks - business was done for W240 around 3.20, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some business was done few cents higher as well)
RCN prices from West Africa are also steady but very little new business has been done in last couple of weeks. Brazil has entered the RCN import market after a long gap (their previous import was in 1998/99). Shipments are picking up and after reasonable quantity of old purchases have been shipped, new business will be done. There is still a lot of seed available but there are delays in arrival in India & Vietnam plus some holding back for higher prices. Unless kernel prices pick up for forward positions, processors will be reluctant to pay high prices as there is very limited demand for later positions at the moment
Due to the uncertainty of when – and how much cashews – will be shipped from Vietnam, it seems that kernel market is likely to be more of a spot market for quite some time. This is going to make things difficult for people who want to take forward positions – they will be reluctant to take on any big commitments as they are already caught on the wrong foot and cannot afford to aggravate an already difficult situation
Usage in first quarter has been good in most markets – despite some retail level price increases in some markets. Usage in second quarter must be watched closely to get an idea of extent of buying cashews still to be done for 2008 deliveries and to get some idea of how demand will develop in late 2008 / early 2009
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Cashew market is steady – with a slightly firm undertone for nearbys but not much activity for forwards. No change in prices in the last two weeks - business was done for W240 around 3.20, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some business was done few cents higher as well)
RCN prices from West Africa are also steady but very little new business has been done in last couple of weeks. Brazil has entered the RCN import market after a long gap (their previous import was in 1998/99). Shipments are picking up and after reasonable quantity of old purchases have been shipped, new business will be done. There is still a lot of seed available but there are delays in arrival in India & Vietnam plus some holding back for higher prices. Unless kernel prices pick up for forward positions, processors will be reluctant to pay high prices as there is very limited demand for later positions at the moment
Due to the uncertainty of when – and how much cashews – will be shipped from Vietnam, it seems that kernel market is likely to be more of a spot market for quite some time. This is going to make things difficult for people who want to take forward positions – they will be reluctant to take on any big commitments as they are already caught on the wrong foot and cannot afford to aggravate an already difficult situation
Usage in first quarter has been good in most markets – despite some retail level price increases in some markets. Usage in second quarter must be watched closely to get an idea of extent of buying cashews still to be done for 2008 deliveries and to get some idea of how demand will develop in late 2008 / early 2009
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Cashew Market Price Hikes and Defaults – Must They Go Hand in Hand?
By David Rosenthal
As if a staggering rise in cashew prices were not enough, reliable sources estimate that Vietnamese shippers have defaulted on over 2000 containers of cashews scheduled to arrive between November 2007 and February 2008. This presents a market differential in excess of 40 million dollars. The Vietnamese have protested that the discrepancies between current market prices and the lower prices contracted before the market overheated is so great that honoring the contracts would effectively put them out of business. Indian shippers (who so far have not defaulted) maintain that fulfilling the contracts would not result in substantial losses, because the Vietnamese raw seed, both domestic and imported, was bought at reasonable price levels and was sufficient to meet Vietnamese contractual obligations.
The problem is that much higher profits can be had by delaying shipments and causing supply disruptions. Historically, the default tolerance level is $0.20 lb. Once the market goes beyond this price differential, the temptation to default and sell to buyers willing to pay a higher price (and there appear to be plenty of these high bidders in China and Malaysia) is too much for some suppliers. And there is every possibility that even this traditional default tolerance threshold could decrease.
There is no question that these defaults are fueling the severe rise in cashew prices. It is by no means an isolated problem, but widespread – continuing from last year’s crop into the current one. The number of defaulted containers that need to be covered has triggered a wave of buying that is permeated with fear – both of shortages and of further price increases. The combination of fear and uncertainty is always a grim mix, and Indian shippers who know the extent of the defaults are not likely to allow prices to soften. There is a slim hope for price relief as the peak arrival period of raw seed in India and West Africa approaches, but the fear factor, delays and defaults seem to have created an environment in which the market firms almost as soon as it eases.
The problem is not unique to the United States. Our counterparts at CENTA have banded together and are working through their governments to resolve the situation through treaties and trade agreements with Vietnam. Although the United States does not have the same types of treaties, the AFI is also trying to safeguard the interests of American importers, who are caught in the vise of having to fulfill contracts to their customers while having to pay more for cashews purchased on an emergency basis in order to cover the defaults. Unfortunately American importers have the added handicap of the weakening dollar, making their bargaining position more problematic.
In order to recoup their losses and stabilize the situation, the importers need for these older, less expensive contracts to be shipped in full. There can be no question of “Force Majeure” from Vietnam, because they continue to offer containers of cashews for 5 – 6 months out (at high prices) which we must assume to be the very containers that they are not shipping for their contracts! By whatever means – arbitration, diplomacy, etc. the defaults need to be addressed, and resolved, because it is not only the short term that is at stake. The commodity trading and speculative market approach that has been the mainstay of the industry could be at risk if commodity traders (importers) are perceived to have no power to effectively enforce contracts.
The cashew industry has experienced these “perfect storms” in the past, and will weather this one also. It is worth mentioning that not all of the Vietnamese shippers have defaulted on their contracts – many are honoring their obligations. These tend to be the ‘best of the best’ – shippers who view long term relationships as more important than quick profits. These difficult situations are always learning opportunities – if nothing else, hopefully, the importing community will remember who the reliable suppliers are when the good times come around again.
As if a staggering rise in cashew prices were not enough, reliable sources estimate that Vietnamese shippers have defaulted on over 2000 containers of cashews scheduled to arrive between November 2007 and February 2008. This presents a market differential in excess of 40 million dollars. The Vietnamese have protested that the discrepancies between current market prices and the lower prices contracted before the market overheated is so great that honoring the contracts would effectively put them out of business. Indian shippers (who so far have not defaulted) maintain that fulfilling the contracts would not result in substantial losses, because the Vietnamese raw seed, both domestic and imported, was bought at reasonable price levels and was sufficient to meet Vietnamese contractual obligations.
The problem is that much higher profits can be had by delaying shipments and causing supply disruptions. Historically, the default tolerance level is $0.20 lb. Once the market goes beyond this price differential, the temptation to default and sell to buyers willing to pay a higher price (and there appear to be plenty of these high bidders in China and Malaysia) is too much for some suppliers. And there is every possibility that even this traditional default tolerance threshold could decrease.
There is no question that these defaults are fueling the severe rise in cashew prices. It is by no means an isolated problem, but widespread – continuing from last year’s crop into the current one. The number of defaulted containers that need to be covered has triggered a wave of buying that is permeated with fear – both of shortages and of further price increases. The combination of fear and uncertainty is always a grim mix, and Indian shippers who know the extent of the defaults are not likely to allow prices to soften. There is a slim hope for price relief as the peak arrival period of raw seed in India and West Africa approaches, but the fear factor, delays and defaults seem to have created an environment in which the market firms almost as soon as it eases.
The problem is not unique to the United States. Our counterparts at CENTA have banded together and are working through their governments to resolve the situation through treaties and trade agreements with Vietnam. Although the United States does not have the same types of treaties, the AFI is also trying to safeguard the interests of American importers, who are caught in the vise of having to fulfill contracts to their customers while having to pay more for cashews purchased on an emergency basis in order to cover the defaults. Unfortunately American importers have the added handicap of the weakening dollar, making their bargaining position more problematic.
In order to recoup their losses and stabilize the situation, the importers need for these older, less expensive contracts to be shipped in full. There can be no question of “Force Majeure” from Vietnam, because they continue to offer containers of cashews for 5 – 6 months out (at high prices) which we must assume to be the very containers that they are not shipping for their contracts! By whatever means – arbitration, diplomacy, etc. the defaults need to be addressed, and resolved, because it is not only the short term that is at stake. The commodity trading and speculative market approach that has been the mainstay of the industry could be at risk if commodity traders (importers) are perceived to have no power to effectively enforce contracts.
The cashew industry has experienced these “perfect storms” in the past, and will weather this one also. It is worth mentioning that not all of the Vietnamese shippers have defaulted on their contracts – many are honoring their obligations. These tend to be the ‘best of the best’ – shippers who view long term relationships as more important than quick profits. These difficult situations are always learning opportunities – if nothing else, hopefully, the importing community will remember who the reliable suppliers are when the good times come around again.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Peanut Planting Update
Good afternoon,
In general the peanut markets have been very quiet the last week. Little to no offers on ’07 Crop and certainly no offers on ’08 Crop.
I have talked to some farmers, this week, that advised that some additional acres (planned for peanuts) have been planted in corn. The price for corn topped $6/bl. last week and some acres were planted in corn. The weather was good and University of Georgia planting guides allow planting of corn through April 15.
There is no way to tell how significant this increase in corn may be, but any reduction in peanut acres is not good.
Export Peanut numbers were released by FAS for February. They show total peanut exports up 72% Feb ’08 vs. Feb ’07. For the crop year Exports are up 14.7%. Most exporters agree, this trend will continue. The peanuts have already been sold and the numbers will come in as they ship.
This continues to bring concern that supply will be tight on peanuts as we move through the summer.
Again, it is very hard to get price indications from any Sheller.
The shellers are waiting to see how many acres are planted and shell a few more tons to see how yields come out.
We may see some additional offers on ’07 and ’08 crop in late May or early June.
Let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Thanks Stewart
In general the peanut markets have been very quiet the last week. Little to no offers on ’07 Crop and certainly no offers on ’08 Crop.
I have talked to some farmers, this week, that advised that some additional acres (planned for peanuts) have been planted in corn. The price for corn topped $6/bl. last week and some acres were planted in corn. The weather was good and University of Georgia planting guides allow planting of corn through April 15.
There is no way to tell how significant this increase in corn may be, but any reduction in peanut acres is not good.
Export Peanut numbers were released by FAS for February. They show total peanut exports up 72% Feb ’08 vs. Feb ’07. For the crop year Exports are up 14.7%. Most exporters agree, this trend will continue. The peanuts have already been sold and the numbers will come in as they ship.
This continues to bring concern that supply will be tight on peanuts as we move through the summer.
Again, it is very hard to get price indications from any Sheller.
The shellers are waiting to see how many acres are planted and shell a few more tons to see how yields come out.
We may see some additional offers on ’07 and ’08 crop in late May or early June.
Let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Thanks Stewart
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Cashew Concern Certification
I came across the attached commentary in the CCC website on the devastating effect that ignoring potential vulnerabilities has had on the Airline industry. Although addressing these issues proactively would have cost American Airlines a substantial amount of money it pales in comparison to the tens of millions that it will now cost to remedy the situation, not to mention the the effect this will have on consumer confidence.
This comes in addition to the recent news regarding the high levels salmonella recently found in the Malt O Meal cereals and their co packed private label brands. Both of these issues bring to light how vulnerable industries are today and that ignoring potential problems can result in a very costly lesson.
Bentzy Klein
Cashew Concern Certification
This comes in addition to the recent news regarding the high levels salmonella recently found in the Malt O Meal cereals and their co packed private label brands. Both of these issues bring to light how vulnerable industries are today and that ignoring potential problems can result in a very costly lesson.
Bentzy Klein
Cashew Concern Certification
Monday, April 14, 2008
Growing NOW problem poses serious pistachio aflatoxin threat
Apr 11, 2008 11:10 AM, By Harry ClineFarm Press Editorial Staff
California’s 2007 pistachio crop was not only huge in size, but also alarmingly high in aflatoxin levels — almost 30 percent in at least one sampling.
For an industry facing future record-after-record crops, the prospect of a growing aflatoxin problem is not good. Handlers report unwanted high levels in the nuts processed from this crop.
The problem has become so alarming, handlers are now considering penalties for growers who deliver nuts unacceptably high in aflatoxin levels/Navel orangeworm damage and to reward those who avoid the problem with good management practices and deliver a clean crop.
And giving your handler a very clean crop is not that difficult, according to Bob Beede, University of California Cooperative Extension tree nut crop farm advisor for Kings and Tulare counties.
Beede told the recent Western Pistachio Association’s U.S. Pistachio Conference in Santa Barbara that a team of UC entomologists have put together a thorough package of knowledge and control strategies to reduce Navel orangeworm populations, and therefore significantly reduce the chances of aflatoxin in California pistachios.
Food safety is hammered hard at just about every crop production and handling meeting these days. It was no different with pistachios which can ill afford a food contamination crisis.
Pistachios remain almost a niche snack food consumers would quickly avoid if they perceived there was a food safety issue.
Consuming high levels of aflatoxin can make people seriously ill. It has also been linked to liver cancer.
“Folks, we have a problem we have to solve collectively. You have to take Navel orangeworm management with extreme seriousness,” Beede told about 400 growers, processors and PCAs at the conference.
Last season’s high levels have been blamed on the “perfect storm” of a heavy crop with strung out maturity, a large percentage of early splits and a late harvest.
Beede acknowledged that it may have been ideal for NOW and aflatoxin, but the overwintering NOW population left behind will not go away.
Nor will the growing number of perennial crops that host NOW go away, particularly almonds, another crop seriously impacted by NOW.
Beede insists that a 7-step program will significantly reduce any overwintering or growing NOW problem.
It begins with sanitation; shaking mummies from trees, blowing mummies off berms into middles, and disking them in.
“It may cost $100 to $150 per acre to do the sanitation work,” said Beede. It may pay off by not getting a call from your processor who says he does not want your pistachio nuts because of high NOW damage/aflatoxin levels.
As important as sanitation and beneficial insects are in controlling NOW, those two things together or alone will not control damaging levels of NOW. Control will go beyond those.
Most all generations of NOW in a season overlap, some in as brief a time span as 10 days per generation. However, the first generation does not overlap with the second. It is that initial flush where growers have a shot at cleaning up overwinter populations with a pesticide.
Beede recommends using one of the new soft, non-disruptive insecticides to control worms then. Don’t use an organophosphate early because it will take out beneficial parasites early.
“This first generation early treatment would be around the first week to 10 days of May in a normal year,” said Beede.
He also suggested disking middles in June to break pest production cycles; applying soft materials in July if warranted.
“If you wait until August to do something about a NOW infestation, you will not be able to control NOW with pesticides then” he warned.
“And harvest early,” he added. “Don’t wait for all the nuts to split. They won’t.”
After harvest, Beede said, is another opportunity to break a NOW reproduction cycle. “Remember when you are harvesting nuts, Navel orangeworm also are harvesting nuts.”
“Look at a post harvest treatment with Intrepid and a pyrethroid,” he suggested.
Early splits create an ideal environment for NOW generations to enter the nut and reproduce rapidly. Early splits last year were correlated to deficit irrigation in many cases, according to one handler.
Emerging NOWs do not have to be high numbers initially to create problems. Beede said one entomologist collected 200,000 mummies, but only 190 adults emerged.
“Not a problem? Let’s say there are only two Navel orangeworms per tree in an orchard. Each one can lay 100 eggs giving you 200 eggs per tree. Assuming 50 percent mortality in those eggs, that still leaves 100 worms per tree. That is a problem,” Beede said.
In the pistachio industry, we are all in the same boat when it comes to NOW and aflatoxin ... all in the same boat without a commander,” Beede said, indicating that NOW control is a grower-by-grower decision.
However, there is one common thread among growers and it is that there is plenty of information about this insect pest and how to control it.
“One thing we all have is knowledge and knowledge is power,” Beede emphasized.
He encouraged growers to “seize the opportunity” to control NOW and reduce any aflatoxin threat and “preserve the food safety and preserve the market that California pistachios have always been recognized for.”
email: hcline@farmpress.com
California’s 2007 pistachio crop was not only huge in size, but also alarmingly high in aflatoxin levels — almost 30 percent in at least one sampling.
For an industry facing future record-after-record crops, the prospect of a growing aflatoxin problem is not good. Handlers report unwanted high levels in the nuts processed from this crop.
The problem has become so alarming, handlers are now considering penalties for growers who deliver nuts unacceptably high in aflatoxin levels/Navel orangeworm damage and to reward those who avoid the problem with good management practices and deliver a clean crop.
And giving your handler a very clean crop is not that difficult, according to Bob Beede, University of California Cooperative Extension tree nut crop farm advisor for Kings and Tulare counties.
Beede told the recent Western Pistachio Association’s U.S. Pistachio Conference in Santa Barbara that a team of UC entomologists have put together a thorough package of knowledge and control strategies to reduce Navel orangeworm populations, and therefore significantly reduce the chances of aflatoxin in California pistachios.
Food safety is hammered hard at just about every crop production and handling meeting these days. It was no different with pistachios which can ill afford a food contamination crisis.
Pistachios remain almost a niche snack food consumers would quickly avoid if they perceived there was a food safety issue.
Consuming high levels of aflatoxin can make people seriously ill. It has also been linked to liver cancer.
“Folks, we have a problem we have to solve collectively. You have to take Navel orangeworm management with extreme seriousness,” Beede told about 400 growers, processors and PCAs at the conference.
Last season’s high levels have been blamed on the “perfect storm” of a heavy crop with strung out maturity, a large percentage of early splits and a late harvest.
Beede acknowledged that it may have been ideal for NOW and aflatoxin, but the overwintering NOW population left behind will not go away.
Nor will the growing number of perennial crops that host NOW go away, particularly almonds, another crop seriously impacted by NOW.
Beede insists that a 7-step program will significantly reduce any overwintering or growing NOW problem.
It begins with sanitation; shaking mummies from trees, blowing mummies off berms into middles, and disking them in.
“It may cost $100 to $150 per acre to do the sanitation work,” said Beede. It may pay off by not getting a call from your processor who says he does not want your pistachio nuts because of high NOW damage/aflatoxin levels.
As important as sanitation and beneficial insects are in controlling NOW, those two things together or alone will not control damaging levels of NOW. Control will go beyond those.
Most all generations of NOW in a season overlap, some in as brief a time span as 10 days per generation. However, the first generation does not overlap with the second. It is that initial flush where growers have a shot at cleaning up overwinter populations with a pesticide.
Beede recommends using one of the new soft, non-disruptive insecticides to control worms then. Don’t use an organophosphate early because it will take out beneficial parasites early.
“This first generation early treatment would be around the first week to 10 days of May in a normal year,” said Beede.
He also suggested disking middles in June to break pest production cycles; applying soft materials in July if warranted.
“If you wait until August to do something about a NOW infestation, you will not be able to control NOW with pesticides then” he warned.
“And harvest early,” he added. “Don’t wait for all the nuts to split. They won’t.”
After harvest, Beede said, is another opportunity to break a NOW reproduction cycle. “Remember when you are harvesting nuts, Navel orangeworm also are harvesting nuts.”
“Look at a post harvest treatment with Intrepid and a pyrethroid,” he suggested.
Early splits create an ideal environment for NOW generations to enter the nut and reproduce rapidly. Early splits last year were correlated to deficit irrigation in many cases, according to one handler.
Emerging NOWs do not have to be high numbers initially to create problems. Beede said one entomologist collected 200,000 mummies, but only 190 adults emerged.
“Not a problem? Let’s say there are only two Navel orangeworms per tree in an orchard. Each one can lay 100 eggs giving you 200 eggs per tree. Assuming 50 percent mortality in those eggs, that still leaves 100 worms per tree. That is a problem,” Beede said.
In the pistachio industry, we are all in the same boat when it comes to NOW and aflatoxin ... all in the same boat without a commander,” Beede said, indicating that NOW control is a grower-by-grower decision.
However, there is one common thread among growers and it is that there is plenty of information about this insect pest and how to control it.
“One thing we all have is knowledge and knowledge is power,” Beede emphasized.
He encouraged growers to “seize the opportunity” to control NOW and reduce any aflatoxin threat and “preserve the food safety and preserve the market that California pistachios have always been recognized for.”
email: hcline@farmpress.com
Friday, April 11, 2008
Vietnam: Long An Food expects Vietnam’s 2008 cashew harvest to drop 23 pct
Long An Food Processing Joint-Stock Company, Vietnam’s biggest publicly traded cashew processor and exporter, said it expects the country’s harvest to drop 23 percent this year. The stock fell for the first time in 10 days. Vietnam’s cashew harvest will decline to 270,000 tons this year from 350,000 tons in 2007, said Le Huu Phuong, deputy general director in charge of finance at Long An Food. The stock slipped VND500, or 1.9 percent, to VND26,000 in Hanoi."The country will have a bad harvest due to the weather", Phuong said Wednesday in a telephone interview from Long An, a province in southern Vietnam. "We have some difficulties, but we foresaw the situation and signed up contracts to buy cashew nuts from African countries." The company needs to source for cashews to boost its earnings. The Long An-based company expects pretax profit to rise 14 percent to VND25 billion (US$1.6 million) in 2008 from VND22 billion last year, Phuong said.Source: thanhniennews.com
10 April, 2008 - A contentious food tracking system that Chinese authorities insist will radically improve safety has been incorporated into draft law
Source: FLEXNEWS10/04/2008
The new product and identification system however has met with resistance from major manufacturers who say it will fail to address the problem while significantly adding to production costs.Under the new arrangements each product will be allocated a unique code which, say Chinese officials, will allow it to be tracked at each stage of its productions and distribution cycle. Once it comes into full law, it will be illegal to sell food without such a code.China’s Government originally said the system had to be up and running by June but has now extended the deadline until the end of 2009.However, reports in Chinese media say many of the largest food companies, including Mars, Nestlé, Coca-Cola and Pepsico have raised concerns about the proposed system.Many companies said it would raise production costs and lead to price rises of up to 15%.More importantly, say opponents, the system has a number of fundamental flaws. It does not apply to small companies which, say many, are the cause of the majority of food safety breaches.Li Yu, scientific and regulatory affairs director of Mars China, was reported as saying: “The system is of little use in ensuring product safety, as it doesn't deal with the quality of raw materials."Also, the system doesn't apply to small food plants, and they have the most problems.”A Chinese Government official responsible for implementing the system said the government would work with companies to solve problems as they arose.
Marc Stevens
The new product and identification system however has met with resistance from major manufacturers who say it will fail to address the problem while significantly adding to production costs.Under the new arrangements each product will be allocated a unique code which, say Chinese officials, will allow it to be tracked at each stage of its productions and distribution cycle. Once it comes into full law, it will be illegal to sell food without such a code.China’s Government originally said the system had to be up and running by June but has now extended the deadline until the end of 2009.However, reports in Chinese media say many of the largest food companies, including Mars, Nestlé, Coca-Cola and Pepsico have raised concerns about the proposed system.Many companies said it would raise production costs and lead to price rises of up to 15%.More importantly, say opponents, the system has a number of fundamental flaws. It does not apply to small companies which, say many, are the cause of the majority of food safety breaches.Li Yu, scientific and regulatory affairs director of Mars China, was reported as saying: “The system is of little use in ensuring product safety, as it doesn't deal with the quality of raw materials."Also, the system doesn't apply to small food plants, and they have the most problems.”A Chinese Government official responsible for implementing the system said the government would work with companies to solve problems as they arose.
Marc Stevens
Monday, April 07, 2008
Weekly cashews update
April 5, 2008
Market was very quiet this week – very little business reported. No change in prices e. g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.00, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some large processors sold few cents higher). Prices for Splits & LWP moved up a bit in domestic market.
WA season seems to be progressing normally - Prices came down 3-4% i.e. Benin is around 950 and IVC is around 875 C&F. If RCN prices ease further, we might see some kernel selling interest as processors would like to have some sales on books before buying too much RCN. But before selling any big volume, they would like to cover reasonable quantities as they would not like to go short again even though prices are high
In Vietnam, Vinacas has organized meetings between processors & some large buyers this weekend.. Outcome of these meetings will have a great impact on supplies from Vietnam and positions & buying strategy of most buyers in main importing countries
Until there is significant improvement in flow of product to USA & Europe – and this is unlikely to happen before June even if enough RCN is available – supply lines will be tight. Need for spot and nearby shipments will probably keep the market firm. In turn, this might result in steady RCN prices affecting ability of processors to offer kernels at lower prices for next few months. What impact this will have in second half of 2008 & early 2009 – on demand and prices - is a big question mark
Overall, difficult times & delicately poised market means that everyone will have to be extra careful for next few weeks
I would appreciate your views on the current situation, information on demand and price trends in your market... and your opinion on how market will develop in coming weeks & months
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Market was very quiet this week – very little business reported. No change in prices e. g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.00, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some large processors sold few cents higher). Prices for Splits & LWP moved up a bit in domestic market.
WA season seems to be progressing normally - Prices came down 3-4% i.e. Benin is around 950 and IVC is around 875 C&F. If RCN prices ease further, we might see some kernel selling interest as processors would like to have some sales on books before buying too much RCN. But before selling any big volume, they would like to cover reasonable quantities as they would not like to go short again even though prices are high
In Vietnam, Vinacas has organized meetings between processors & some large buyers this weekend.. Outcome of these meetings will have a great impact on supplies from Vietnam and positions & buying strategy of most buyers in main importing countries
Until there is significant improvement in flow of product to USA & Europe – and this is unlikely to happen before June even if enough RCN is available – supply lines will be tight. Need for spot and nearby shipments will probably keep the market firm. In turn, this might result in steady RCN prices affecting ability of processors to offer kernels at lower prices for next few months. What impact this will have in second half of 2008 & early 2009 – on demand and prices - is a big question mark
Overall, difficult times & delicately poised market means that everyone will have to be extra careful for next few weeks
I would appreciate your views on the current situation, information on demand and price trends in your market... and your opinion on how market will develop in coming weeks & months
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, March 31, 2008
Initial Projected 2008 Peanut Crop Planting
Good Monday morning,
The USDA issued the Prospective Plantings Report this morning.
Peanut acres are estimated to increase 16% over 2007 crop to 1,430,000 acres.
This would yield a little more than 2,100,000 tons, with an average yield.
This is certainly not too many peanuts when you consider a demand of 1,950,000 tons and the short carry-in to the 2008 crop.
I will give a more detailed report, later.
Have a Great week. Richard
Peanuts: Area Planted by State
and United States, 2006-2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2006 : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2008/2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- Percent
:
AL : 165.0 160.0 180.0 113
FL : 130.0 130.0 120.0 92
GA : 580.0 530.0 650.0 123
MS : 17.0 19.0 28.0 147
NM : 12.0 10.0 9.0 90
NC : 85.0 92.0 86.0 93
OK : 23.0 18.0 20.0 111
SC : 59.0 59.0 65.0 110
TX : 155.0 190.0 250.0 132
VA : 17.0 22.0 22.0 100
:
US : 1,243.0 1,230.0 1,430.0 116
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Intended plantings in 2008 as indicated by reports from farmers.
2008 PEANUT CROP ACREAGE ESTIMATE 3/31/2008
ACRES YIELD PRODUCTION
2006 1,210,000 2,863 1,732 ,125
2007 1,195,000 3,130 1,870 ,325
2008 1,430,000 2,800 2,002 ,000
1,430,000 3,200 2,288 ,000
Over the last five crop years U.S. yield hasn't been
lower than 2,863 pounds per acre and hasn't been
higher than 3,159 pounds per acre. Speculation on
the possible low and high production for 2008 crop.
Stewart
The USDA issued the Prospective Plantings Report this morning.
Peanut acres are estimated to increase 16% over 2007 crop to 1,430,000 acres.
This would yield a little more than 2,100,000 tons, with an average yield.
This is certainly not too many peanuts when you consider a demand of 1,950,000 tons and the short carry-in to the 2008 crop.
I will give a more detailed report, later.
Have a Great week. Richard
Peanuts: Area Planted by State
and United States, 2006-2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2006 : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2008/2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: --------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- Percent
:
AL : 165.0 160.0 180.0 113
FL : 130.0 130.0 120.0 92
GA : 580.0 530.0 650.0 123
MS : 17.0 19.0 28.0 147
NM : 12.0 10.0 9.0 90
NC : 85.0 92.0 86.0 93
OK : 23.0 18.0 20.0 111
SC : 59.0 59.0 65.0 110
TX : 155.0 190.0 250.0 132
VA : 17.0 22.0 22.0 100
:
US : 1,243.0 1,230.0 1,430.0 116
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Intended plantings in 2008 as indicated by reports from farmers.
2008 PEANUT CROP ACREAGE ESTIMATE 3/31/2008
ACRES YIELD PRODUCTION
2006 1,210,000 2,863 1,732 ,125
2007 1,195,000 3,130 1,870 ,325
2008 1,430,000 2,800 2,002 ,000
1,430,000 3,200 2,288 ,000
Over the last five crop years U.S. yield hasn't been
lower than 2,863 pounds per acre and hasn't been
higher than 3,159 pounds per acre. Speculation on
the possible low and high production for 2008 crop.
Stewart
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
UPDATE ON PEANUTS March 24, 2008
Supply
2005 Peanut Crop production 2,410,000 tons of farmer stock
2006 Peanut Crop production 1,737,000 tons of farmer stock - Down 28%
Tonnage was down due to 25% reduction in acres and poor growing conditions
Carry-in from 2006 is estimated at 585,000 tons. (Aug 1, 2007)
USDA final estimate (1/10/08) 2007 Crop at 1,870,325 FST. FSIS has only graded 1,811,228 tons, as of 3/18/08. (1,815,000 FST is going to be close)
Demand
Demand onUS Peanut crop 1.98 mil tons
Demand includes Peanut domestic usage 1.45, seed .13 mil, exports .40 mil tons.
Supply 2,520,000 = 1,815,000 ’07 Crop + 585,000 carry-in + 120,000 import
Demand – 1,980,000 = 540,000 FST carry-out (Aug 1, 2008)
This is a tight carry-out. (we need 475,000 to cover Aug – Oct).
There is an unusually high demand out of Mexico and EU at this time. This is due to China not offering and Argentina has sold out of the ’07 crop.
US demand is just seeing the price increases being put into effect Jan ’08. It will take a month or two for us to evaluate the impact on demand. P/B is usually a strong seller in a bad economy, so I would expect it to stay strong. Candy and Snack could take a hit as fuel cost take a big part of the consumers cash.
Market ’07 Crop
Very few offers on 2007 Crop - Peanuts with EU specs or Hi-Oleic specs would be higher.
’07 crop market going forward depends on 1) US demand – how does the consumer react to the higher prices and the weaker economy. 2) China - Recent reports indicate China will need all their peanuts for oil and consumption within the country. 3) Argentina – how will the crop be in Argentina? Acres were up 4%.
Jan ’08 export of peanuts is up 48% over Jan ’07. Shellers indicate significant export sales have been made going forward. We are just starting to see this in the Govn’t numbers. This will help keep the US market tight and prices firm.
’08 Crop
Farmer stock has been contracted at $500 - $550/ton. The majority was at $500 - $525. I would estimate that 65 -70% has been contracted. (more in the SE than SW)
Last week cotton prices fell along with other small grains. This has taken the pressure off of peanuts. Farmers seem to be complaining less about the $500 peanut contracts. Cheaper cotton may help us with peanut acres.
Shellers are withdrawn from the ’08 market until we see peanut acres planted.
I believe an increase in Peanut acres of less than 15% will be bullish on prices, 15 – 18% will be neutral and 18% + will be bearish.
Long range weather forecast are still calling for warmer and dryer in the peanut areas. In spite of this, we have had good rains in the SE over the last 2 months.
Stewart Parnell
2005 Peanut Crop production 2,410,000 tons of farmer stock
2006 Peanut Crop production 1,737,000 tons of farmer stock - Down 28%
Tonnage was down due to 25% reduction in acres and poor growing conditions
Carry-in from 2006 is estimated at 585,000 tons. (Aug 1, 2007)
USDA final estimate (1/10/08) 2007 Crop at 1,870,325 FST. FSIS has only graded 1,811,228 tons, as of 3/18/08. (1,815,000 FST is going to be close)
Demand
Demand onUS Peanut crop 1.98 mil tons
Demand includes Peanut domestic usage 1.45, seed .13 mil, exports .40 mil tons.
Supply 2,520,000 = 1,815,000 ’07 Crop + 585,000 carry-in + 120,000 import
Demand – 1,980,000 = 540,000 FST carry-out (Aug 1, 2008)
This is a tight carry-out. (we need 475,000 to cover Aug – Oct).
There is an unusually high demand out of Mexico and EU at this time. This is due to China not offering and Argentina has sold out of the ’07 crop.
US demand is just seeing the price increases being put into effect Jan ’08. It will take a month or two for us to evaluate the impact on demand. P/B is usually a strong seller in a bad economy, so I would expect it to stay strong. Candy and Snack could take a hit as fuel cost take a big part of the consumers cash.
Market ’07 Crop
Very few offers on 2007 Crop - Peanuts with EU specs or Hi-Oleic specs would be higher.
’07 crop market going forward depends on 1) US demand – how does the consumer react to the higher prices and the weaker economy. 2) China - Recent reports indicate China will need all their peanuts for oil and consumption within the country. 3) Argentina – how will the crop be in Argentina? Acres were up 4%.
Jan ’08 export of peanuts is up 48% over Jan ’07. Shellers indicate significant export sales have been made going forward. We are just starting to see this in the Govn’t numbers. This will help keep the US market tight and prices firm.
’08 Crop
Farmer stock has been contracted at $500 - $550/ton. The majority was at $500 - $525. I would estimate that 65 -70% has been contracted. (more in the SE than SW)
Last week cotton prices fell along with other small grains. This has taken the pressure off of peanuts. Farmers seem to be complaining less about the $500 peanut contracts. Cheaper cotton may help us with peanut acres.
Shellers are withdrawn from the ’08 market until we see peanut acres planted.
I believe an increase in Peanut acres of less than 15% will be bullish on prices, 15 – 18% will be neutral and 18% + will be bearish.
Long range weather forecast are still calling for warmer and dryer in the peanut areas. In spite of this, we have had good rains in the SE over the last 2 months.
Stewart Parnell
Monday, March 24, 2008
U.S. peanut industry may need more acres in 2008
U.S. peanut farmers need to increase acreage by as much as 20 percent in 2008 to meet demand and shellers have offered contract prices as high as $500 a ton to compete with corn, cotton, wheat and milo for available land.
“Supplies are very tight,” said Richard Barnhill, president of Mazur and Hockman Peanut Brokers, Albany, Ga.
Barnhill spoke from his Georgia office by phone to the Oklahoma Peanut Expo recently at Lone Wolf, Okla. Barnhill said the current National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) peanut estimate of 1.87 million tons from the 2007 crop “is optimistic. Industry estimates put the figure at 1.805 million tons. That other 65,000 tons is simply not there,” he said. “Either the harvested acreage number or estimated yield is off.”
He said demand for the 2007 crop is about 1.985 million tons, with 1.43 million tagged for domestic consumption, 130,000 tons for seed and 425,000 for export.
“Exports are up more than 20 percent this year,” he said. Those figures don’t mesh with NASS either, but Barnhill said the government does not know what has been exported until after the fact, not “until a bill of lading comes through.”
He said the big three peanut buyers, Clint Williams, Birdsong and Golden Peanut, all indicate increased export sales.
Carryover will be 180,000 tons less than from the 2006 crop. “Supplies got tight last fall. We need peanuts for 2008 to meet demand and build up carry-in. If we have production problems we might not have enough for the industry.”
Demand has pushed up prices. “For three or four years, from about 2003 through 2005, we produced more peanuts than we needed. Prices stayed around 40 cents a pound for medium runners. In 2007, price jumped to 68 cents a pound.”
He said prices likely will remain firm but that the $500 contracts signed last fall will mean an average 2008-crop price around 57 cents a pound. “The market is trying to figure out how many peanuts it has and how many it will need.”
Several other market factors influence peanut prices. “Europe bought a big volume of U.S. peanuts in 2007. Argentina is finished with its crop and China is using more of its production (domestically) than ever. Demand (in China) for oil and edible peanuts has increased.”
He said China is not exporting peanuts this year and that makes Japan, Europe, Mexico and Canada more dependent on the U.S. market. “China typically exports 500,000 metric tons of peanuts. They are not exporting any in 2008.”
Mexico could be a good market for Oklahoma growers. “Oklahoma has a freight advantage to Mexico,” Barnhill said.
The weak U.S. dollar also makes exports a bargain for other countries. “A 65 cents per pound U.S. peanut equals 47 cents a pound in Euros,” he said.
The U.S. energy policy also affects peanuts, though indirectly. Energy and world demand for food have driven grain and soybean prices up so crops are competing for farmland to meet demand.
“The question is, what will U.S. peanut farmers plant?” Early estimates point to a 17.5 percent increase. “But that was before the recent run up in the cotton market. That could have an effect.” He said a 15 percent increase seems more likely.
A 1.43-million acre crop and a yield of 2,900 pounds per acre would net a bit more than 2 million tons of peanuts. “That would be a comfortable carry-out and a hedge if we have lower yields but still not a risk of too many peanuts. The industry is not comfortable with just a 300,000-ton carryover each year. Industry uses about 140,000 tons a month so it takes at least 300,000 to cover transition (from one crop to the next).”
Barnhill said domestic demand likely would stay strong, despite of or maybe because of potential recession. “Peanuts and peanut butter do well in an economy that’s struggling,” he said. “Consumers have less disposable income and one of the first things to go is eating out. Restaurant numbers are already declining.”
When that happens, peanut butter provides a good protein source. “Peanut butter use is up 24 percent over last January,” he said. “So far, higher prices have not caused any sign of decline in demand.”
He doesn’t anticipate that a price in the middle 50 cents per pound range will affect consumption significantly. He also doesn’t anticipate prices for corn, beans and other grains to decline within the next year or two but expects a three- to five-year trend for “grain and peanut prices at these levels or better.”
Barnhill also advised any growers with 2007 peanuts in the loan not to forfeit. “See a local sheller,” he said.
Alan Orloff, Clint Williams Company in Madill, Okla., said he’s “more optimistic about peanuts than at any time in recent years. China has a huge impact on the market and they are not exporting. For years China dumped millions of tons of peanuts on the world market at low prices. They can’t compete with U.S. peanuts on quality. This year they reneged on contracts and blindsided the industry.”
Mexico was a big buyer and with China out of the market, “Mexico is a big reason for today’s higher peanut prices,” Orloff said. “Things are looking up for peanuts.”
Tyron Spearman, Tifton, Ga., editor of Peanut Market News, an electronic newsletter, said Georgia growers likely will increase acreage in 2008. “Soil moisture has been replenished,” he said.
Early estimates point to a 1.225 million-acre U. S. crop. “A 15 percent to 18 percent increase in acreage will not hurt,” he said. But getting that bump may not be easy with competition from soybeans, corn and cotton.
“Soybean seed supply is short, however. We’ll need to treat more peanut seed if we plant this acreage.”
He’s fearful that a 24 percent jump might “bust the market next year.”
Spearman said the USDA estimate of domestic peanut use for food from the 2007 crop is 5 percent down. They also estimate a 5 percent drop in exports. He agrees with Barnhill that the export figure likely is wrong and he hopes the domestic consumption figure is also in error. “I think it is.”
Spearman said Japan will be back in the market for U.S. peanuts. “And Russia is now our number four customer after they built an M&M plant.”
He said peanut imports have declined by 91 percent in recent years.
Spearman said peanut framer numbers, unfortunately, have also dropped, down from 17,916 in 2001 to only 10,002 in 2007. “That figure has leveled off now,” he said.
“For now, we have a tremendous demand; the outlook is good.”
Oklahoma State University Extension economist Kim Anderson said farmers need to look closely at crop options this year and “use prices to figure out the best option to pay for land, labor, capital and management.”
He offered prices of crops competing for acres. Wheat futures market in early March was at $11.40 a bushel with contract prices 70 cents off that, $10.70. December corn was at $5.79 with contracts off only a dime at $5.69. Soybeans contracts with futures at $14.17 were $1 less at $13.17.
Peanut contracts were competing with the $500-a-ton contracts last fall.
“The soybean market started going up in October,” Anderson said. “The industry needed acreage and bid the price up. The corn market started bidding up in December. Cotton supplies are not tight but prices went up to buy land.”
Crop budgets indicate peanut production costs will hit near $535 per acre. A 2-ton yield at a $500-per-ton contract price brings in $1,000 per acre. Subtracting the $535 per acre production costs and another $60 per acre for drying leaves a $405 per acre profit.
“Prices are high, inputs are high, so growers have to invest more money for greater returns,” Anderson said. “Regardless of the crop, everything comes with risk. Take a pencil or a computer and look at the market, management, land, labor and capital and see which commodity gives the highest return.
“Don’t get enamored with price,” he said. “You don’t make money just selling; you make it on production and management. You have to have a quality product to sell.”
“Supplies are very tight,” said Richard Barnhill, president of Mazur and Hockman Peanut Brokers, Albany, Ga.
Barnhill spoke from his Georgia office by phone to the Oklahoma Peanut Expo recently at Lone Wolf, Okla. Barnhill said the current National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) peanut estimate of 1.87 million tons from the 2007 crop “is optimistic. Industry estimates put the figure at 1.805 million tons. That other 65,000 tons is simply not there,” he said. “Either the harvested acreage number or estimated yield is off.”
He said demand for the 2007 crop is about 1.985 million tons, with 1.43 million tagged for domestic consumption, 130,000 tons for seed and 425,000 for export.
“Exports are up more than 20 percent this year,” he said. Those figures don’t mesh with NASS either, but Barnhill said the government does not know what has been exported until after the fact, not “until a bill of lading comes through.”
He said the big three peanut buyers, Clint Williams, Birdsong and Golden Peanut, all indicate increased export sales.
Carryover will be 180,000 tons less than from the 2006 crop. “Supplies got tight last fall. We need peanuts for 2008 to meet demand and build up carry-in. If we have production problems we might not have enough for the industry.”
Demand has pushed up prices. “For three or four years, from about 2003 through 2005, we produced more peanuts than we needed. Prices stayed around 40 cents a pound for medium runners. In 2007, price jumped to 68 cents a pound.”
He said prices likely will remain firm but that the $500 contracts signed last fall will mean an average 2008-crop price around 57 cents a pound. “The market is trying to figure out how many peanuts it has and how many it will need.”
Several other market factors influence peanut prices. “Europe bought a big volume of U.S. peanuts in 2007. Argentina is finished with its crop and China is using more of its production (domestically) than ever. Demand (in China) for oil and edible peanuts has increased.”
He said China is not exporting peanuts this year and that makes Japan, Europe, Mexico and Canada more dependent on the U.S. market. “China typically exports 500,000 metric tons of peanuts. They are not exporting any in 2008.”
Mexico could be a good market for Oklahoma growers. “Oklahoma has a freight advantage to Mexico,” Barnhill said.
The weak U.S. dollar also makes exports a bargain for other countries. “A 65 cents per pound U.S. peanut equals 47 cents a pound in Euros,” he said.
The U.S. energy policy also affects peanuts, though indirectly. Energy and world demand for food have driven grain and soybean prices up so crops are competing for farmland to meet demand.
“The question is, what will U.S. peanut farmers plant?” Early estimates point to a 17.5 percent increase. “But that was before the recent run up in the cotton market. That could have an effect.” He said a 15 percent increase seems more likely.
A 1.43-million acre crop and a yield of 2,900 pounds per acre would net a bit more than 2 million tons of peanuts. “That would be a comfortable carry-out and a hedge if we have lower yields but still not a risk of too many peanuts. The industry is not comfortable with just a 300,000-ton carryover each year. Industry uses about 140,000 tons a month so it takes at least 300,000 to cover transition (from one crop to the next).”
Barnhill said domestic demand likely would stay strong, despite of or maybe because of potential recession. “Peanuts and peanut butter do well in an economy that’s struggling,” he said. “Consumers have less disposable income and one of the first things to go is eating out. Restaurant numbers are already declining.”
When that happens, peanut butter provides a good protein source. “Peanut butter use is up 24 percent over last January,” he said. “So far, higher prices have not caused any sign of decline in demand.”
He doesn’t anticipate that a price in the middle 50 cents per pound range will affect consumption significantly. He also doesn’t anticipate prices for corn, beans and other grains to decline within the next year or two but expects a three- to five-year trend for “grain and peanut prices at these levels or better.”
Barnhill also advised any growers with 2007 peanuts in the loan not to forfeit. “See a local sheller,” he said.
Alan Orloff, Clint Williams Company in Madill, Okla., said he’s “more optimistic about peanuts than at any time in recent years. China has a huge impact on the market and they are not exporting. For years China dumped millions of tons of peanuts on the world market at low prices. They can’t compete with U.S. peanuts on quality. This year they reneged on contracts and blindsided the industry.”
Mexico was a big buyer and with China out of the market, “Mexico is a big reason for today’s higher peanut prices,” Orloff said. “Things are looking up for peanuts.”
Tyron Spearman, Tifton, Ga., editor of Peanut Market News, an electronic newsletter, said Georgia growers likely will increase acreage in 2008. “Soil moisture has been replenished,” he said.
Early estimates point to a 1.225 million-acre U. S. crop. “A 15 percent to 18 percent increase in acreage will not hurt,” he said. But getting that bump may not be easy with competition from soybeans, corn and cotton.
“Soybean seed supply is short, however. We’ll need to treat more peanut seed if we plant this acreage.”
He’s fearful that a 24 percent jump might “bust the market next year.”
Spearman said the USDA estimate of domestic peanut use for food from the 2007 crop is 5 percent down. They also estimate a 5 percent drop in exports. He agrees with Barnhill that the export figure likely is wrong and he hopes the domestic consumption figure is also in error. “I think it is.”
Spearman said Japan will be back in the market for U.S. peanuts. “And Russia is now our number four customer after they built an M&M plant.”
He said peanut imports have declined by 91 percent in recent years.
Spearman said peanut framer numbers, unfortunately, have also dropped, down from 17,916 in 2001 to only 10,002 in 2007. “That figure has leveled off now,” he said.
“For now, we have a tremendous demand; the outlook is good.”
Oklahoma State University Extension economist Kim Anderson said farmers need to look closely at crop options this year and “use prices to figure out the best option to pay for land, labor, capital and management.”
He offered prices of crops competing for acres. Wheat futures market in early March was at $11.40 a bushel with contract prices 70 cents off that, $10.70. December corn was at $5.79 with contracts off only a dime at $5.69. Soybeans contracts with futures at $14.17 were $1 less at $13.17.
Peanut contracts were competing with the $500-a-ton contracts last fall.
“The soybean market started going up in October,” Anderson said. “The industry needed acreage and bid the price up. The corn market started bidding up in December. Cotton supplies are not tight but prices went up to buy land.”
Crop budgets indicate peanut production costs will hit near $535 per acre. A 2-ton yield at a $500-per-ton contract price brings in $1,000 per acre. Subtracting the $535 per acre production costs and another $60 per acre for drying leaves a $405 per acre profit.
“Prices are high, inputs are high, so growers have to invest more money for greater returns,” Anderson said. “Regardless of the crop, everything comes with risk. Take a pencil or a computer and look at the market, management, land, labor and capital and see which commodity gives the highest return.
“Don’t get enamored with price,” he said. “You don’t make money just selling; you make it on production and management. You have to have a quality product to sell.”
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
India: Cashew output on the rise, except in State
The government, on Monday, said cashew production in the country has increased, except in Kerala where the output has slumped to 72,000 tonnes in 2006-07 from 95,000 tonnes in 2003-04. "The production of cashew in the country is in an increasing trend, except in Kerala", Minister of State for Agriculture Kanti Lal Bhuria said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. The data submitted by Mr. Bhuria shows that total cashew production in the country has gone up by 8.2% to 6.2 lakh tonnes during 2006-07, compared to 5.73 lakh tonnes in an year-ago period.Kerala, among the top cashew producing States, showed a declining trend in its output at 72,000 tonnes in 2006-07 against 95,000 tonnes in 2003-04, it said. Maharashtra topped in cashew production at 1.97 lakh tonnes, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 99,000 tonnes, West Bengal at 84,000 tonnes, Kerala at 72,000 tonnes and Karnataka at 52,000 tonnes. As far as acreage under the crop is concerned, the data showed a downward trend in Kerala, 80,000 hectares in 2006-07 from 1,00,000 hectares five years ago. However, the yield level has increased marginally to 900 a kg.Mr. Bhuria said the Kerala State Agency for Cashew Cultivation had not submitted any proposal for financial aid to enhance cashew cultivation in the State. However, to improve the cashew output in the country, the National Horticulture Mission is being implemented since 2005-06 to promote holistic growth of the horticulture sector, which includes cashew, Mr. Bhuria said. New plantation and replanting old and uneconomical cashew gardens with high yielding varieties are the major activities undertaken under the mission to increase cashew production in the country, he said.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Almond Market Update from Ned
Dear Friends:
Almond bloom is almost complete and pollination conditions were almost perfect the past 3 weeks. Accordingly, most expect a record 2008 crop—the 3rd record crop in a row. Until 2007 we had never had even 2 record crops in a row. The record crops are the result of increased plantings in 2003, 4 & 5 that are coming into production in 2006, 7 & 8. In April, we’ll have a look at the crop set on the trees, followed by the May crop and acreage estimates. With more than 50,000 more acres coming into production, I would expect the 2008 crop to exceed 1.4 billion. I would also expect that this will be a year similar to past record almond crops—starting at a low price with strong contracting and shipments bringing prices up as we move through harvest.
We all like to see a big crop but don’t like the price adjustment that goes with it. Almonds prices have come down .15 to .20 per lb over the past month. Buyers are waiting for some stability before stepping in to contract. Second hand traders have tried to move the price for Std S/R down into the mid 1.50’s but sales from California seem to have leveled off in the 1.60 to 1.65 range for 2007 and 2008 crops. The 1.50 price range for Std grade makes grower prices close to the cost of production and that is usually where prices stop.
A week ago, the Almond Board showed February shipments of 86 million—up 18%, compared with 73 million a year ago. Year to date shipments are 784 million—up 15% over last year. We expect to stay on this track and finish with a carry out inventory of about 240 million—100 million more than the past several years. This will make for a smoother transition to 2008 crop and keep market prices similar for the 2 crop years.
Following are approximate market prices, unpasteurized.
2007 crop (2008 is similar)
Nonpareil Supreme 23/25 2.50 USD/lb FOB/FAS California
Nonpareil Supreme 27/30 2.15
Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL 1.95
Butte SSR 27/30 AOL 1.75
Cal Std unsized 5% 1.65
Blanched Sliced 2.55
Happy St Patrick’s Day to all those with Irish blood, Irish names or Irish spirit. Please send your comments and questions.
Best regards, Ned
Almond bloom is almost complete and pollination conditions were almost perfect the past 3 weeks. Accordingly, most expect a record 2008 crop—the 3rd record crop in a row. Until 2007 we had never had even 2 record crops in a row. The record crops are the result of increased plantings in 2003, 4 & 5 that are coming into production in 2006, 7 & 8. In April, we’ll have a look at the crop set on the trees, followed by the May crop and acreage estimates. With more than 50,000 more acres coming into production, I would expect the 2008 crop to exceed 1.4 billion. I would also expect that this will be a year similar to past record almond crops—starting at a low price with strong contracting and shipments bringing prices up as we move through harvest.
We all like to see a big crop but don’t like the price adjustment that goes with it. Almonds prices have come down .15 to .20 per lb over the past month. Buyers are waiting for some stability before stepping in to contract. Second hand traders have tried to move the price for Std S/R down into the mid 1.50’s but sales from California seem to have leveled off in the 1.60 to 1.65 range for 2007 and 2008 crops. The 1.50 price range for Std grade makes grower prices close to the cost of production and that is usually where prices stop.
A week ago, the Almond Board showed February shipments of 86 million—up 18%, compared with 73 million a year ago. Year to date shipments are 784 million—up 15% over last year. We expect to stay on this track and finish with a carry out inventory of about 240 million—100 million more than the past several years. This will make for a smoother transition to 2008 crop and keep market prices similar for the 2 crop years.
Following are approximate market prices, unpasteurized.
2007 crop (2008 is similar)
Nonpareil Supreme 23/25 2.50 USD/lb FOB/FAS California
Nonpareil Supreme 27/30 2.15
Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL 1.95
Butte SSR 27/30 AOL 1.75
Cal Std unsized 5% 1.65
Blanched Sliced 2.55
Happy St Patrick’s Day to all those with Irish blood, Irish names or Irish spirit. Please send your comments and questions.
Best regards, Ned
Weekly cashews update
Mar 15, 2008
Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby
RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price
Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season
Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby
RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price
Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season
Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Monday, March 03, 2008
Weekly cashews update
Mar 1, 2008
Cashew prices came down a few cents – W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55 FOB but there was very little activity.
Most processors do not seem to be keen to make any big sales till they have a clear picture of RCN pricing in the three main producing areas.. But some processors have sold limited quantities at slightly lower levels
Kernel buyers also seem to do not want to make any big purchases till they see how demand develops in coming weeks given that current prices are quite high compared to last year’s levels. Meantime they are buying some quantities “when needed” or when they have some new enquiries from endusers.. If new demand is limited, buying trend will continue to be restrained
Apart from some “early” news of some concerns with Vietnam crop, there is no adverse news from any origin. Prices have softened a bit in India & Vietnam. Initial offers from West Africa were high but did not induce any significant buying interest. During March, RCN activity will pick up and depending on prices paid, we will see kernel price range evolving with offers from processors as they start buying RCN.
In last few months, all commodity prices have gone up substantially – it is to be seen whether these higher prices will be sustained in coming months and more specifically what impact these higher prices will have on demand for different categories of products
In cashews, we can expect higher volatility in Mar/Apr depending on news from origins and need of processors to make sales. After that, a medium term range for second half 2008 will be established – it seems it will be higher than last years range but it is to be seen how it will compare with the current levels
Would appreciate your comments and views & any news / info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Cashew prices came down a few cents – W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55 FOB but there was very little activity.
Most processors do not seem to be keen to make any big sales till they have a clear picture of RCN pricing in the three main producing areas.. But some processors have sold limited quantities at slightly lower levels
Kernel buyers also seem to do not want to make any big purchases till they see how demand develops in coming weeks given that current prices are quite high compared to last year’s levels. Meantime they are buying some quantities “when needed” or when they have some new enquiries from endusers.. If new demand is limited, buying trend will continue to be restrained
Apart from some “early” news of some concerns with Vietnam crop, there is no adverse news from any origin. Prices have softened a bit in India & Vietnam. Initial offers from West Africa were high but did not induce any significant buying interest. During March, RCN activity will pick up and depending on prices paid, we will see kernel price range evolving with offers from processors as they start buying RCN.
In last few months, all commodity prices have gone up substantially – it is to be seen whether these higher prices will be sustained in coming months and more specifically what impact these higher prices will have on demand for different categories of products
In cashews, we can expect higher volatility in Mar/Apr depending on news from origins and need of processors to make sales. After that, a medium term range for second half 2008 will be established – it seems it will be higher than last years range but it is to be seen how it will compare with the current levels
Would appreciate your comments and views & any news / info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Monday, February 25, 2008
Weekly cashews update
Feb 23, 2008
Cashew market continues to be quiet with a slightly soft tone.. Medium & small packers have sold W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55, SW around 2.45 FOB. Large packers are still asking for higher prices but no trades reported at higher levels. Prices in Indian domestic market for Splits & LWP have also eased a bit
USA roasters have bought some quantities in last few weeks for FH 2008 shipments. Europe industry seems to be well covered for most of 2008 but importers still have to buy to fulfill earlier low priced sales. Both seem to be content to pick up some quantities to cover immediate needs and wait for newcrop trends to be stabilized before making any large purchases. This seems to be prudent because any big demand now will mean higher RCN prices and consequently, inability for processors to reduce kernel prices (especially since other costs are also going up and dollar is lower compared to 2007)
Spot RCN prices in India and Vietnam were high due to limited arrivals. Prices should ease as arrivals pick up full flow in Vietnam in 2-4 weeks and India in 4-6 weeks. For the last few years, Indian RCN has been out of reach for exporting procesors (small quantities are bought to cater to niche markets - Rest of the crop is bought by regional processors who supply the domestic market)
Prices for WA RCN have opened with parity at current kernel prices but since there is not much forward demand at current levels, processors – those who bought Indonesia & East Africa at high prices and also those who have prior sales at lower levels – are unlikely to buy large quantities unless kernel demand picks up. If this does not happen, RCN prices may ease in Mar/Apr when arrivals in West Africa are at their peak (but prices will still be higher than last season). Reasonable RCN prices would be a good thing as too high prices will adversely affect all segments of the chain and impact medium & long term demand
Overall supply position seems to be comfortable (although there might be temporary tightness from time to time).. So, trend for 2008 will depend on developments on demand side… Supply side will have impact only if there is any big decline in any origin or if prices remain unreasonably high (this should be clear by end Mar/mid April at the latest).. Meantime, we will probably see some sharp movements in market during next weeks with crop news (and rumours) affecting RCN and kernel activity.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views on demand and market trend, news of crop prospects and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Cashew market continues to be quiet with a slightly soft tone.. Medium & small packers have sold W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55, SW around 2.45 FOB. Large packers are still asking for higher prices but no trades reported at higher levels. Prices in Indian domestic market for Splits & LWP have also eased a bit
USA roasters have bought some quantities in last few weeks for FH 2008 shipments. Europe industry seems to be well covered for most of 2008 but importers still have to buy to fulfill earlier low priced sales. Both seem to be content to pick up some quantities to cover immediate needs and wait for newcrop trends to be stabilized before making any large purchases. This seems to be prudent because any big demand now will mean higher RCN prices and consequently, inability for processors to reduce kernel prices (especially since other costs are also going up and dollar is lower compared to 2007)
Spot RCN prices in India and Vietnam were high due to limited arrivals. Prices should ease as arrivals pick up full flow in Vietnam in 2-4 weeks and India in 4-6 weeks. For the last few years, Indian RCN has been out of reach for exporting procesors (small quantities are bought to cater to niche markets - Rest of the crop is bought by regional processors who supply the domestic market)
Prices for WA RCN have opened with parity at current kernel prices but since there is not much forward demand at current levels, processors – those who bought Indonesia & East Africa at high prices and also those who have prior sales at lower levels – are unlikely to buy large quantities unless kernel demand picks up. If this does not happen, RCN prices may ease in Mar/Apr when arrivals in West Africa are at their peak (but prices will still be higher than last season). Reasonable RCN prices would be a good thing as too high prices will adversely affect all segments of the chain and impact medium & long term demand
Overall supply position seems to be comfortable (although there might be temporary tightness from time to time).. So, trend for 2008 will depend on developments on demand side… Supply side will have impact only if there is any big decline in any origin or if prices remain unreasonably high (this should be clear by end Mar/mid April at the latest).. Meantime, we will probably see some sharp movements in market during next weeks with crop news (and rumours) affecting RCN and kernel activity.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views on demand and market trend, news of crop prospects and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Pistachio group selects industry veteran as leader
Pistachio group selects industry veteran as leader
(2/19/2008)
The Western Pistachio Association of Fresno, Calif., has selected industry veteran Richard Matoian as its new executive director.
The association, founded in 1980, promotes pistachios growers' interests.
With the June 2007 demise of the California Pistachio Commission, a state marketing order, the association stepped in to expand membership and programs and continue work in areas such as production and nutritional research, promotion and governmental affairs.
“We are very happy to have found a leader with Richard’s experience,” says association chairman Mike Woolf. “He will be a tremendous asset in advancing the interests of the U.S. pistachio industry.”
In 2007, U.S. pistachio growers harvested a record 415 million pounds from more than 115,000 bearing acres.
For the past five years, Matoian served as manager of the Fresno-based California Fig Advisory Board, a state marketing order that promotes California-grown figs.
Previously he served as president of the Fresno-based California Grape & Tree Fruit League, a statewide trade association that represents table grape and tree fruit industries.
Matoian will officially begin his duties with the pistachio association on May 1.
(2/19/2008)
The Western Pistachio Association of Fresno, Calif., has selected industry veteran Richard Matoian as its new executive director.
The association, founded in 1980, promotes pistachios growers' interests.
With the June 2007 demise of the California Pistachio Commission, a state marketing order, the association stepped in to expand membership and programs and continue work in areas such as production and nutritional research, promotion and governmental affairs.
“We are very happy to have found a leader with Richard’s experience,” says association chairman Mike Woolf. “He will be a tremendous asset in advancing the interests of the U.S. pistachio industry.”
In 2007, U.S. pistachio growers harvested a record 415 million pounds from more than 115,000 bearing acres.
For the past five years, Matoian served as manager of the Fresno-based California Fig Advisory Board, a state marketing order that promotes California-grown figs.
Previously he served as president of the Fresno-based California Grape & Tree Fruit League, a statewide trade association that represents table grape and tree fruit industries.
Matoian will officially begin his duties with the pistachio association on May 1.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Ouch!!!!

Just nuts: Supermarkets thrive on women cashew workers’ poverty
New ActionAid report shows that poverty pay and dangerous conditions are the secret behind the success of UK supermarkets. Who Pays? shows that the way UK supermarkets do business with developing countries is locking women workers into appallingly low pay and dangerous conditions.
In India the report examines the explosion in black market cashew nuts processing factories and how women workers are hit hardest by the drive to cut costs, caused partly by big supermarkets’ relentless pursuit of profits:
“That’s more than I get for three weeks’ work,” Mercy, a cashew nut worker says on discovering that the kilo of cashew nuts, which she has been paid Rs 4.25 to shell, will retail for Rs 757.10 or more in a UK supermarket.
Not only does the cashew factory job pay a pittance, it is also jeopardizing Mercy’s health.
“I get pains in my knees from squatting all day. I get headaches, dizziness and vomiting from breathing in the smoke (caused by the cashew roasting process).”
Women cashew nut workers also showed ActionAid researchers the permanent scars on their hands due to the corrosive acids produced by the nuts when shelled. Workers earn as little as Rs 25.2 (30 UK pence) a day, less than half of the minimum wage.
Mercy is one of an estimated 500,000 women who process cashews for a living in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and of two million people employed by the cashew industry across India, the world’s biggest exporter of shelled cashews. Over 6,700 tonnes were shipped to the UK from the country in 2005. Of these, at least 80% are sold through supermarkets.
Profits sans human rights
Babu Mathew, country director, ActionAid India says, “Securing a minimum wage and decent working conditions is already a big challenge for women and other vulnerable workers. Pressure from big retailers to cut costs makes their struggle all the more difficult. Foreign investment has to come with human rights standards attached.”
ActionAid researchers found that for every pound shoppers spend on cashews in British supermarkets, just one penny – and sometimes only half a penny – goes to the women workers who process the nuts. Another 22 pence is shared between farmers, traders, processing companies and exporters in India.
Workers are being trapped into a cycle of poverty and insecurity as a result of UK supermarkets’ demands for lower prices and constant changes to orders.
“Core labour standards are clearly being flouted. The Indian government is obliged to ensure that these are met. Workers also need to know their rights. In Kanyakumari ActionAid is supporting a local group in educating women and children on labour standards and encouraging workers to come together to demand minimum wages and decent working conditions,” says Babu Mathew.
The core labour standards are 1. Freedom of association (the right to form a trade union). 2. No forced labour. 3. No discrimination (in pay and conditions). 4. No child labour. “When you try to cut prices you are encouraging the re-emergence of all of these things,” adds Mathew.
What can the British government do?
“The big four UK supermarkets are increasingly eager to prove their ethical credentials to their customers. In reality the supermarkets’ ever-growing profits are boosted by the scandalously low wages and appalling conditions suffered by the women who produce the food and clothes we buy every day,” said Claire Melamed, head of trade and corporates campaign at ActionAid.
UK supermarkets are currently under investigation. ActionAid is calling for the UK Government to introduce an independent watchdog that would hold supermarkets to account for their actions overseas. Even the industry’s most effective voluntary code, the Ethical Trading Initiative, has not delivered the sweeping changes needed.
Claire Melamed says, “The supermarket giants have proved unwilling or unable to police themselves effectively. The British government needs to think very hard about the kind of corporate image UK PLC wants to portray – and if it isn’t one of exploitation and hardship then it must step in now.”
“A watchdog would make sure that UK supermarkets send a bit more of the value back to countries like India and Bangladesh that produce the goods that fill their shelves. Workers would then have a better chance of taking matters into their own hands, and negotiating higher wages and better conditions,” adds Melamed.
ActionAid is also asking the Competition Commission to recommend an independent supermarket regulator as part of its ongoing inquiry into the UK grocery market
Facts:
More than £7 out of every £10 spent on groceries in Britain goes into supermarket tills
Poor countries earn £7 million a day from food and clothes bought by UK shoppers in supermarkets
Women make up 60% to 90% of the clothing and fresh produce workforce in developing countries
Photo credits: Tom Pietrasik/ActionAid
actionaidspace_ asia bangladesh brasil chembakolli china guatemala india ireland italy kenya nepal nigeria pakistan spain sri lanka thailand uk usa vietnam
READ MORE:
Tribal women demand justice
Farmers dig in over steel plant plans
Trapped in a web of silk
Endangered livelihoods
Download Who Pays?
New ActionAid report shows that poverty pay and dangerous conditions are the secret behind the success of UK supermarkets. Who Pays? shows that the way UK supermarkets do business with developing countries is locking women workers into appallingly low pay and dangerous conditions.
In India the report examines the explosion in black market cashew nuts processing factories and how women workers are hit hardest by the drive to cut costs, caused partly by big supermarkets’ relentless pursuit of profits:
“That’s more than I get for three weeks’ work,” Mercy, a cashew nut worker says on discovering that the kilo of cashew nuts, which she has been paid Rs 4.25 to shell, will retail for Rs 757.10 or more in a UK supermarket.
Not only does the cashew factory job pay a pittance, it is also jeopardizing Mercy’s health.
“I get pains in my knees from squatting all day. I get headaches, dizziness and vomiting from breathing in the smoke (caused by the cashew roasting process).”
Women cashew nut workers also showed ActionAid researchers the permanent scars on their hands due to the corrosive acids produced by the nuts when shelled. Workers earn as little as Rs 25.2 (30 UK pence) a day, less than half of the minimum wage.
Mercy is one of an estimated 500,000 women who process cashews for a living in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and of two million people employed by the cashew industry across India, the world’s biggest exporter of shelled cashews. Over 6,700 tonnes were shipped to the UK from the country in 2005. Of these, at least 80% are sold through supermarkets.
Profits sans human rights
Babu Mathew, country director, ActionAid India says, “Securing a minimum wage and decent working conditions is already a big challenge for women and other vulnerable workers. Pressure from big retailers to cut costs makes their struggle all the more difficult. Foreign investment has to come with human rights standards attached.”
ActionAid researchers found that for every pound shoppers spend on cashews in British supermarkets, just one penny – and sometimes only half a penny – goes to the women workers who process the nuts. Another 22 pence is shared between farmers, traders, processing companies and exporters in India.
Workers are being trapped into a cycle of poverty and insecurity as a result of UK supermarkets’ demands for lower prices and constant changes to orders.
“Core labour standards are clearly being flouted. The Indian government is obliged to ensure that these are met. Workers also need to know their rights. In Kanyakumari ActionAid is supporting a local group in educating women and children on labour standards and encouraging workers to come together to demand minimum wages and decent working conditions,” says Babu Mathew.
The core labour standards are 1. Freedom of association (the right to form a trade union). 2. No forced labour. 3. No discrimination (in pay and conditions). 4. No child labour. “When you try to cut prices you are encouraging the re-emergence of all of these things,” adds Mathew.
What can the British government do?
“The big four UK supermarkets are increasingly eager to prove their ethical credentials to their customers. In reality the supermarkets’ ever-growing profits are boosted by the scandalously low wages and appalling conditions suffered by the women who produce the food and clothes we buy every day,” said Claire Melamed, head of trade and corporates campaign at ActionAid.
UK supermarkets are currently under investigation. ActionAid is calling for the UK Government to introduce an independent watchdog that would hold supermarkets to account for their actions overseas. Even the industry’s most effective voluntary code, the Ethical Trading Initiative, has not delivered the sweeping changes needed.
Claire Melamed says, “The supermarket giants have proved unwilling or unable to police themselves effectively. The British government needs to think very hard about the kind of corporate image UK PLC wants to portray – and if it isn’t one of exploitation and hardship then it must step in now.”
“A watchdog would make sure that UK supermarkets send a bit more of the value back to countries like India and Bangladesh that produce the goods that fill their shelves. Workers would then have a better chance of taking matters into their own hands, and negotiating higher wages and better conditions,” adds Melamed.
ActionAid is also asking the Competition Commission to recommend an independent supermarket regulator as part of its ongoing inquiry into the UK grocery market
Facts:
More than £7 out of every £10 spent on groceries in Britain goes into supermarket tills
Poor countries earn £7 million a day from food and clothes bought by UK shoppers in supermarkets
Women make up 60% to 90% of the clothing and fresh produce workforce in developing countries
Photo credits: Tom Pietrasik/ActionAid
actionaidspace_ asia bangladesh brasil chembakolli china guatemala india ireland italy kenya nepal nigeria pakistan spain sri lanka thailand uk usa vietnam
READ MORE:
Tribal women demand justice
Farmers dig in over steel plant plans
Trapped in a web of silk
Endangered livelihoods
Download Who Pays?
Monday, February 11, 2008
Weekly cashews update
Feb 9, 2008
This week, the market has been quiet but the undertone continues to be firm; offers are in the range of 3.10-3.20 for W240, 2.85-2.95 for W320, 2.60-2.65 for W450. Stray business done in the middle of the range. Indian domestic market eased a bit but the prices for brokens are still much higher than the international market. Vietnam is closed for holidays and Brazil is quiet due to limited availability
Nothing new to report on supply side – everything so far points to good availability in Mar-July but the concern still remains the price level. If prices open too high, processors will be faced with difficult choice. March will give an idea of which way things are headed but a clearer picture will be available by mid April
On the demand side, it seems that there will continue to be steady demand for nearby shipment to meet delivery commitments. There might also be some “insurance” covering by traders to protect against delays and further price increase. There will not be any big forward buying unless there are signs that market can absorb current levels which are higher than average of 2007 prices and substantially higher than average of last few years – there will be the fear that some months down the line, demand may soften due to high prices. Nobody wants to be left carrying the bag both ways – up and down
General feeling is that prices will remain firm in the very short term and move in a narrow range for the medium term.. Trend for second half of the year will depend on what prices are paid for RCN in Mar-May
What do you think about current situation ? What are your views & forecast on demand and price trends - short & medium term ? Would appreciate any info from origins and demand side
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
This week, the market has been quiet but the undertone continues to be firm; offers are in the range of 3.10-3.20 for W240, 2.85-2.95 for W320, 2.60-2.65 for W450. Stray business done in the middle of the range. Indian domestic market eased a bit but the prices for brokens are still much higher than the international market. Vietnam is closed for holidays and Brazil is quiet due to limited availability
Nothing new to report on supply side – everything so far points to good availability in Mar-July but the concern still remains the price level. If prices open too high, processors will be faced with difficult choice. March will give an idea of which way things are headed but a clearer picture will be available by mid April
On the demand side, it seems that there will continue to be steady demand for nearby shipment to meet delivery commitments. There might also be some “insurance” covering by traders to protect against delays and further price increase. There will not be any big forward buying unless there are signs that market can absorb current levels which are higher than average of 2007 prices and substantially higher than average of last few years – there will be the fear that some months down the line, demand may soften due to high prices. Nobody wants to be left carrying the bag both ways – up and down
General feeling is that prices will remain firm in the very short term and move in a narrow range for the medium term.. Trend for second half of the year will depend on what prices are paid for RCN in Mar-May
What do you think about current situation ? What are your views & forecast on demand and price trends - short & medium term ? Would appreciate any info from origins and demand side
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Monday, February 04, 2008
Storm costs swell
Friday, February 01, 2008
Storm costs swell
Crop damage estimates climb into hundreds of millions
Elizabeth Larson
Capital Press
Friday, February 01, 2008
Estimates of agricultural losses as a result of January storms continue to rise in Northern California counties known for their orchard production.
Storms in early January - specifically Jan. 4 - dealt serious damage to the Northern Sacramento Valley counties of Butte, Glenn, Tehama, Sutter, Yuba and Colusa.
Hardest hit was Butte County, with about $69 million in damages, a figure that includes not just the coming year's crops but the replacement costs for mature trees and lost income to growers, said Robert Maurer, county executive director of Butte County's Farm Service Agency.
"Almonds were the hardest hit," said Maurer, who said that they're estimating $65 million just for the county's damaged almond acreage, with $2.2 million in losses for plums and $1.9 million for walnuts.
Maurer said the process of seeking emergency funds has started, but he said funding is very tight right now.
To get emergency funding, he said, there usually has to be an emergency designation, which is triggered by a 30-percent crop loss. This is an unusual case, said Maurer, because the losses aren't restricted to crop damage.
Nick Oliver, supervising agriculture and standards biologist for Sutter County's Agriculture Department, put that county's initial losses at $13.6 million, with overall damages at $60.5 million.
Winds in some areas of Sutter county, especially around the Sutter Buttes, reached 70 miles per hour, Oliver said.
That played havoc with the area's almonds which, like those in Butte, were hit hardest. Sutter has only about 5,000 acres of almonds - far smaller than Butte's 39,000 acres - and so the county's overall losses were higher. Oliver said growers lost 50 percent of their crop.
Other commodity crop losses totaled 15 percent for prunes, 10 percent for English walnuts and 3 percent for cling peaches.
Glenn County Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jean Miller estimated that the accumulated damage to Glenn's agriculture totaled $48 million, a figure which also accounts for long-term losses due to downed mature trees.
"When you lose a tree, you've lost 10 years of production and most of the trees were in their prime," she said.
The Jan. 4 storm brought fierce winds which was a major factor in destruction of orchard trees.
"I don't remember storm damage this bad over the last 10 years at least, maybe even longer," Miller said.
The wind also knocked down telephone poles which caused power outages, resulting in thousands of gallons of milk and cream being dumped by area dairies and cheese processors, Miller said.
Other losses included damaged bee hives and a 50-percent loss on the county's navel orange harvest, the latter totaling about $270,000.
In Colusa County, Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jon Richter totaled this year's crop damage for orchards at $5 million, with replacement and production costs at $14 million for a $19 million total.
"We put in for a crop disaster designation with the Office of Emergency Services," Richter said.
The Padre variety of almond tree, in the 15- to 20-year-old range, seemed to be the biggest victim of the winter winds, Richter said. Many of the trees had not rooted deeply enough, they were planted on an east-to-west pattern and their larger canopies caught the winds.
Rick Gurrola, agriculture commissioner for Tehama County, said almonds, walnuts and prunes took the brunt of the damage from the storm in his county, with almonds projected at a nearly $4 million loss, with all crop damage and losses totaling $18.5 million.
Yuba County Agricultural Commissioner Louie B. Mendoza Jr. said their prunes were hit hardest, especially older orchards. Walnuts and peaches had minor losses.
The winter weather "has slowed down operations quite a bit," he said.
The county's overall agriculture losses are at $7.4 million, a figure which Mendoza said includes some infrastructure, such as damaged shops, buildings and packing houses.
Elizabeth Larson is a staff writer based in Lucerne. E-mail: elarson@capitalpress.com.
Storm costs swell
Crop damage estimates climb into hundreds of millions
Elizabeth Larson
Capital Press
Friday, February 01, 2008
Estimates of agricultural losses as a result of January storms continue to rise in Northern California counties known for their orchard production.
Storms in early January - specifically Jan. 4 - dealt serious damage to the Northern Sacramento Valley counties of Butte, Glenn, Tehama, Sutter, Yuba and Colusa.
Hardest hit was Butte County, with about $69 million in damages, a figure that includes not just the coming year's crops but the replacement costs for mature trees and lost income to growers, said Robert Maurer, county executive director of Butte County's Farm Service Agency.
"Almonds were the hardest hit," said Maurer, who said that they're estimating $65 million just for the county's damaged almond acreage, with $2.2 million in losses for plums and $1.9 million for walnuts.
Maurer said the process of seeking emergency funds has started, but he said funding is very tight right now.
To get emergency funding, he said, there usually has to be an emergency designation, which is triggered by a 30-percent crop loss. This is an unusual case, said Maurer, because the losses aren't restricted to crop damage.
Nick Oliver, supervising agriculture and standards biologist for Sutter County's Agriculture Department, put that county's initial losses at $13.6 million, with overall damages at $60.5 million.
Winds in some areas of Sutter county, especially around the Sutter Buttes, reached 70 miles per hour, Oliver said.
That played havoc with the area's almonds which, like those in Butte, were hit hardest. Sutter has only about 5,000 acres of almonds - far smaller than Butte's 39,000 acres - and so the county's overall losses were higher. Oliver said growers lost 50 percent of their crop.
Other commodity crop losses totaled 15 percent for prunes, 10 percent for English walnuts and 3 percent for cling peaches.
Glenn County Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jean Miller estimated that the accumulated damage to Glenn's agriculture totaled $48 million, a figure which also accounts for long-term losses due to downed mature trees.
"When you lose a tree, you've lost 10 years of production and most of the trees were in their prime," she said.
The Jan. 4 storm brought fierce winds which was a major factor in destruction of orchard trees.
"I don't remember storm damage this bad over the last 10 years at least, maybe even longer," Miller said.
The wind also knocked down telephone poles which caused power outages, resulting in thousands of gallons of milk and cream being dumped by area dairies and cheese processors, Miller said.
Other losses included damaged bee hives and a 50-percent loss on the county's navel orange harvest, the latter totaling about $270,000.
In Colusa County, Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jon Richter totaled this year's crop damage for orchards at $5 million, with replacement and production costs at $14 million for a $19 million total.
"We put in for a crop disaster designation with the Office of Emergency Services," Richter said.
The Padre variety of almond tree, in the 15- to 20-year-old range, seemed to be the biggest victim of the winter winds, Richter said. Many of the trees had not rooted deeply enough, they were planted on an east-to-west pattern and their larger canopies caught the winds.
Rick Gurrola, agriculture commissioner for Tehama County, said almonds, walnuts and prunes took the brunt of the damage from the storm in his county, with almonds projected at a nearly $4 million loss, with all crop damage and losses totaling $18.5 million.
Yuba County Agricultural Commissioner Louie B. Mendoza Jr. said their prunes were hit hardest, especially older orchards. Walnuts and peaches had minor losses.
The winter weather "has slowed down operations quite a bit," he said.
The county's overall agriculture losses are at $7.4 million, a figure which Mendoza said includes some infrastructure, such as damaged shops, buildings and packing houses.
Elizabeth Larson is a staff writer based in Lucerne. E-mail: elarson@capitalpress.com.
Weekly cashews update
Feb 2, 2008
In the last few days, there has been reasonable activity in the cashew market and prices have moved up a few cents. Business done to USA & Europe - W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.80, W450 around 2.55 FOB. Most of the trades were for nearbys but some business was done for second quarter as well. Vietnam has been quiet as people started going away for holidays
Spot RCN prices are firm and this is likely to continue in Feb till new crops start in Vietnam, India, West Africa from March onwards. Weather conditions in all these origins have been good and if nothing adverse happens in next few weeks, we can expect good crops in all the origins. RCN price trend will depend on how processors operate in the first few weeks of the crop.
Situation is very difficult. If kernel demand is strong in Feb/Mar, processors will be inclined to be aggressive at the beginning the season and this will put upward pressure on prices. And if kernel market does not support the higher levels, there is a risk of processors holding high priced inventory. If kernel demand slows down, processors might be able to keep away from RCN buying for some time and this will help to keep RCN prices at reasonable levels.
Feb/Mar will be crucial months – trend and volume of kernel activity in this period will have significant impact on the cashew market for rest of the year
Would appreciate your views on the market situation - esp. on the demand side and also how you feel market will move in coming weeks / months + any info from origins
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
In the last few days, there has been reasonable activity in the cashew market and prices have moved up a few cents. Business done to USA & Europe - W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.80, W450 around 2.55 FOB. Most of the trades were for nearbys but some business was done for second quarter as well. Vietnam has been quiet as people started going away for holidays
Spot RCN prices are firm and this is likely to continue in Feb till new crops start in Vietnam, India, West Africa from March onwards. Weather conditions in all these origins have been good and if nothing adverse happens in next few weeks, we can expect good crops in all the origins. RCN price trend will depend on how processors operate in the first few weeks of the crop.
Situation is very difficult. If kernel demand is strong in Feb/Mar, processors will be inclined to be aggressive at the beginning the season and this will put upward pressure on prices. And if kernel market does not support the higher levels, there is a risk of processors holding high priced inventory. If kernel demand slows down, processors might be able to keep away from RCN buying for some time and this will help to keep RCN prices at reasonable levels.
Feb/Mar will be crucial months – trend and volume of kernel activity in this period will have significant impact on the cashew market for rest of the year
Would appreciate your views on the market situation - esp. on the demand side and also how you feel market will move in coming weeks / months + any info from origins
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
At least eight Japanese were sickened,
Source: Dow Jones Newswires
30/01/2008
Tokyo, Jan. 30 - At least eight Japanese were sickened, including a child who remains in a coma, after eating Chinese-made dumplings contaminated with an insecticide, police and health officials said Wednesday.
A family of three in western Hyogo and another family of five in Chiba, near Tokyo, suffered severe abdominal pains, vomiting and diarrhea after eating the frozen dumplings imported from China by a Japanese company, the Health Ministry said.
A 5-year-old girl in Chiba remained in a coma and her mother, two brothers and a sister were in serious condition, a Chiba police spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity in accordance with police policy.
Investigators found traces of organic phosphorus insecticide in the dumplings, their containers and the patients' vomit, the ministry said in a statement. Authorities were attempting to determine the source of the contamination, it said.
Police were investigating the case, and the ministry has ordered the dumplings' importer and distributor, JT Foods Co. Ltd. - an affiliate of Japan's largest tobacco company - to recall the product.
The dumplings were imported in November from the same Chinese manufacturer, Hebei Foodstuffs Import & Export Group Tianyang Food Processing, the ministry said.
Telephones weren't answered at the General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which oversees the safety of China's exports. The agency's Web site made no mention of the incident.
JT Foods distributed 13 tons of dumplings each in Chiba and Hyogo, the ministry said.
China's exports have come under intense scrutiny in the past year after a number of potentially deadly chemicals were found in goods including toothpaste, toys, pet food and seafood.
China's government launched a four-month campaign last August to improve the quality of Chinese products and restore international confidence in its goods. Officials termed the campaign a success.
30/01/2008
Tokyo, Jan. 30 - At least eight Japanese were sickened, including a child who remains in a coma, after eating Chinese-made dumplings contaminated with an insecticide, police and health officials said Wednesday.
A family of three in western Hyogo and another family of five in Chiba, near Tokyo, suffered severe abdominal pains, vomiting and diarrhea after eating the frozen dumplings imported from China by a Japanese company, the Health Ministry said.
A 5-year-old girl in Chiba remained in a coma and her mother, two brothers and a sister were in serious condition, a Chiba police spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity in accordance with police policy.
Investigators found traces of organic phosphorus insecticide in the dumplings, their containers and the patients' vomit, the ministry said in a statement. Authorities were attempting to determine the source of the contamination, it said.
Police were investigating the case, and the ministry has ordered the dumplings' importer and distributor, JT Foods Co. Ltd. - an affiliate of Japan's largest tobacco company - to recall the product.
The dumplings were imported in November from the same Chinese manufacturer, Hebei Foodstuffs Import & Export Group Tianyang Food Processing, the ministry said.
Telephones weren't answered at the General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which oversees the safety of China's exports. The agency's Web site made no mention of the incident.
JT Foods distributed 13 tons of dumplings each in Chiba and Hyogo, the ministry said.
China's exports have come under intense scrutiny in the past year after a number of potentially deadly chemicals were found in goods including toothpaste, toys, pet food and seafood.
China's government launched a four-month campaign last August to improve the quality of Chinese products and restore international confidence in its goods. Officials termed the campaign a success.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Vietnam to hold world top cashew exporter position this year

Vietnam’s cashew industry aimed to export 160,000 tons of cashews worth US$680 million in 2008, the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) said Saturday.
Vietnam was likely to remain the world’s top cashew exporter for the third year in succession, the association said.
The nuts were worth around $4,750 a ton, it said.
Vietnam has exported cashews to 40 countries; the US, China and Europe are the largest markets.
Exports earned $579 million in the first eleven months of last year, 26 percent more than 2006.
Reported by Quang Thuan
Story from Thanh Nien News
Published: 27 January, 2008, 11:50:52 (GMT+7)
Copyright Thanh Nien News
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