Friday, July 14, 2017

Market Update from Jack

Subject: Market report

Your thoughts please.

Yeah… It’s been that long since our last market report that we may need to be re-introduced. My name is Jack, what’s yours? Well, it’s nice knowing you, or better yet nice doing business with you. We had a great turnout at the IFT in Vegas. It was great meeting some old and new faces.

I’m not sure anymore which is riskier… playing the Cashew market or sitting at the poker table till 4am. We all know RCN is expensive, which is the main factor for these high prices. Supply has shortened as well with yields down approximately 10%. So why has the market softened lately? Well, lots of RCN has arrived to the Vietnamese ports lately and many smaller processors with less fluid are desperate for cash. The larger processors with deep pockets may need to follow suit soon, but haven’t as of yet, at least not as much. So, we’re done? Not at all! What about quality? In a market as such of course quality will be affected, and is of course a significant factor in this market. In summary, market can go either way… fierce war has been declared between these 2 infamous rivalries, supply and demand. We suggest booking some of your needs for the next few months and leave some open for the market to do with it as it pleases.

Alright, some good news. Almonds are at a very comfortable level. You really can’t go wrong. The predictions are that we are headed into a beautiful large crop. What amazes me is as follows: The 2017 objective report is predicting a 5% increase over last year’s 2.14 billion lbs crop. Yet, almond growers will still find reason to hike their prices. They should keep the prices stable and sell out this huge crop. You can’t go wrong booking your needs for next 6 months or even most of the season.

We are seeing some more Walnut offers surfacing, mostly odds and ends, as everyone is clearing house in anticipation of the new crop right around the corner. They are predicting a pretty healthy crop and I don’t doubt they will sell out as they did this year. It would be smart to get a decent amount of your needs on the books.

After Brazil Nuts more than doubled in price back in March, they showed some signs of weakening recently, but I have a feeling it will be short lived. We need to make peace with it while taking advantage of any interesting deals out there.

Pumpkin Seeds has regained its dignity with an increase of about $0.20/lb over the last 2 months mainly due to a 30% loss of acreage being reported.

Tropicals have historically remained consistent. We are seeing some slight increases on Ginger and Kiwi now. There also has been some talk for a while now about Papaya shortages. Turkish Apricots have eased up mainly due to the Turkish lira weakening against the USD. Coconut market is dry, with most offers available only end of year. California Golden Raisins should be back in plentiful supply real soon as new crop approaches.

Feel free to reach out with any questions, inquiries or just to chat. We love hearing from you.



Best regards,

Jack Weiser
5110 12th Ave.
Brooklyn, NY 11219

T: 718-256-1000 Ext. 17

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Good afternoon


Hope all is well. 
Not too much to report this week so let’s summarize in a few short sentences.

Cashews:
Many buyers have made peace with the new situation and are booking product at these crazy levels while others are still holding off and claiming that these prices are not justified and do not reflect real market price. We have seen a slowdown in trading throughout he USA and Europe but I wouldn’t call it quiet at all. It’s very hard to tell if we’ll see the market come down in the close future. All I can say is that if trading will stay on the slow side- it’ll force the processors to lower pricing a little but not by much. Do keep in mind that domestic inventories are tight or better if we say almost depleted!  and I think it’ll still take a while for this to change, so even if we see this market starting to come down soon it’ll take a while till we’ll start feeling it here.  Time will tell…. 

Pecans:
While we’re heading into the holiday season pecans are almost nowhere to be found anymore… most processors are fully sold out until new crop. Prices have spiked once again and will very likely stay up there throughout the year. If you still need any additional coverage for 2016 I’d recommend on buying ASAP. 

Almonds:
Buyers seem to be comfortable with the current levels and are buying as needed. Europe was active over the past 2 weeks with some light activity from the USA as well. New crop tends to be trading at about 5-10 cents below current crop with most buyers predicting the crop to be larger than estimated. We are not foreseeing any major changes at this point.

Raisins:
California has an excellent crop this year and prices are competitive right now. We are also hoping that the imported raisins will come in just as competitive. Booking some might be a smart move- with very little risk. 

Cranberries:
No major changes to report on this crop however we have some good position available that we can offer at very competitive levels. Feel free to call for any inquiries. 

Pineapple & Mango:
Tropicals like papaya & ginger should be plenty available with stable prices. Pineapple & Mango have become very tight with not much product available to ship from origin until new crop. We expect this to have a strong effect on pricing and it’ll probably not be before Nov-Dec that we’ll see prices soften up again.


We look forward to answering any questions you may have and hope to be able to quote you some business very soon. 
Thanks,

Pinny

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Market Report 2/9/16


Not too much to report since last time, but here goes.

Cashews
Nothing much has changed in the last few weeks. Very little offers since most of the Vietnam packers are shut for the Tet Holidays. India adjusted their prices as well but they are still higher the Vietnam since they have a thriving domestic market with little pressure to export. Very little 240’s out there and any being offered will be end of crop and not of the highest quality. We will have new crop next month for shelling so around 2 months till we start seeing shipments. Should be a good decent crop, we advise to book some your 2nd3rd QTR needs. Unlike Almonds this commodity has held firm “since it was never too expensive to start”.

Almonds
We are heading into the bloom season, we have had good rain, snow packs. Even with the mantra of El-Nino effects yields we have to take in all the new acreage added, we can expect a huge crop. If you need brown skin because of the pasteurization pipeline, there is a 6 week wait time. So if you need product asap please give us a heads up.

Pecans
Market is very strong, but this could be the ceiling, it’s a strange one, with all other nuts dropping pecans is holding strong at these high prices. China is buying as is Europe even at these high prices.

Pistachios
Very few offers but very little merchandise being offered out there.

Walnuts
This may be the floor, there have been a glut of buying from overseas, saying that we are anticipating a huge crop.

Brazil nuts
With new crop around the corner we have seen the market ease a little bit, so far not much is being offered out from origin, especially not from the better packers, we feel that once the small packers are depleted prices should stabilize. We have lowered our pricing and are offering good deals for both spot as well as forward contracting.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

I hope you all had a wonderful holiday and a happy new year.

We look forward to a great 2016 and strengthening our business relationships with you.



Please find a quick market overview.

Cashews.
Unlike a lot of other commodities the Cashew market has been pretty stable in terms of pricing, there have been small adjustments here and there but no epic spikes or dips like Almonds and Pecans. We believe this will continue, only thing we anticipate is a good early crop out of Vietnam, so new crop should come in early March. We are seeing good quotes for 2nd and 3rd QTR a few cents cheaper from good packers. We advise you cover at least thru 2nd  QTR and maybe even some of your 3rd qtr needs not to run into any surprises that might come up….

Almonds.
Shipment report is out and shipments are down again! commitments are also down, while crop receipts are set to be high and the weather has been finally kind, with rainfall and snow packs forming. G-D has decided after years of favoring the farmers to look kindly now on the buyers, we advise to buy SPOT only and we look forward quoting you on all your needs!

Pecans.
Short crop, damage and disaster has contributed to these high prices along with buying from China (they are only buying pecans). Small pecan growers have been swallowed up by large national companies in desperation to get hold of product. Keep in mind before the crop damage this was meant to be an ON year, so the next year will be an OFF year which will only contribute to keeping pricing high and going higher. It seems like most growers will be chopping up halves to fill their pieces needs and in shell is also trading at record numbers. We expect to see prices stay sky high all the way thru the crop year.

Pistachios.
Not seeing any deals out there when at this time of year you normally do, few packers are even offering. Market is high and seems very stable.

Walnuts.
Market is soft, product is cheap, packers say this is the floor and point to record shipments, while we counter “huge new anticipated crop expected”.

Pine Nuts

Pricing has gone slightly down due to the currency exchange with a super strong dollar against the Chinese currency.


Bentzy Klein 

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Dear Valued Customer,

Please find below our market report, it has been a whirlwind few weeks with commodity prices coming down aggressively.

Cashews.
Market is very quiet, prices are holding firm, probably because China (say it in a Donald trump voice) is picking up the slack. We are being told the Vietnam kernel crop is expected earlier which we be good for pricing, but that wont effect till the 2nd QTR, we strong advice to book to cover 1st QTR, if you don’t, you run the risk of not having product to cover.

Almonds.
Big growers are saying prices will rebound, not to the $5 dollar range but will go up, that’s what they are saying, currently the market is stagnated, there is rain, snow packs have formed and it’s a good crop, along with very little buyers confidence and a lot of mistrust, unless the growers invent a new use for almonds we don’t see pricing rebounding higher, we are super aggressively priced on Almonds and you should take advantage.

Pecans.
Contrary to everything else Pecans have rebounded and looks to only continue its meteoric rise. China is back in the market, along with next year being an off year so farmers are storing a lot for the carry over, even though this was meant to be the ON year because of crop damage its not been amazing, we are priced accordingly.


Finally, at this juncture we at Atlantix would like to wish you and your loved ones a very happy holidays and a happy and joyous new year, we truly appreciate our business relationship and look forward to only growing stronger together with you in the coming years.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Summer!

Suffice to say its summer, and it feels like summer and the market still appears to be in holiday mood. Neither buyers nor sellers are doing too much at the moment. Most important development to look out for is China, and the last move by the government to devalue the currency to stem the import market and keep their currency in house. Now how that will affect the market is one to definitely watch out for.


Cashew Market
We have started to see more activity by US buyers in the last few days. In spite of the relative quietness, prices are staying put and showing little sign of weakness especially from the better packers out there. Now why is this so? well, the overriding factor I think is that “cashews is still the best value nut” and Raw seed prices remaining very firm, and since RCN crop is nearly done and is getting bought by packers in Vietnam and domestic market processors in India they have no need to lower pricing.

So in a nutshell (get it) we feel due to these two factors that prices will not come down over the next 6 months and if anything could well firm up in September when buyers return to the market for Pre-Christmas stock and tenders and Europe comes back from holiday with heavy bookings, basically everyone gets of the beach and decides to start working again.


Almond Market
The almond market has been very quiet, no real heavy bookings and most growers loath to even offer far out. This one is a real head scratcher. For 10 years the Almond Board has done a wonderful job, the first five years was spent expounding the amazing health benefits of the Almond, and then expounding on the terrible drought for the last five, I wonder what tack they will take on now. Prices are at a record high along with it being the driest months in history in California.

The fact that despite the lack of sizeable trade for almost 2 months prices have only lost 1 to max 2% of their highest levels ever achieved, it shows how resilient the suppliers are and how much they like being rich.

Sellers are waiting to see the result of shelling the receipts from the harvest. The first results reported are disappointing, which is normal (the first orchards to be shaken are the most stressed and these are non pareils). Will China come in heavy again? With the high price, and the low bang for their buck (yen) along with rumours of a monster El Nino abound as well all make this an interesting one to watch.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
We feel there is a distinct lack of buyers confidence right now. Supermarket sales on straight almond snacks have dropped by 15%-20% saying that, the slack has been picked up by the almond flour and almond butter business. Could this year be the breaking point? So many different deciding factors here it’s a very tough one to call.

For now short term though we don’t think one will see any price decrease, and maybe its wishful thinking that even later in the year we will, but here’s hoping.

Pecan Market
Again we know it’s going to be an excellent crop in most regions, question is what does China do this year, last year they were buyer, broker and trader, will they act in a more restrained manner and only buy what they need for new crop? It remains to be seen, most of the crop is gone and new crop will be post the holidays, expect pricing to drop then but not till then.

Brazil Nuts

The floods earlier in the year has meant the availability is short again but not as bad as the 2014 crop which was affected by the worst floods ever, and shippers won't have any carryover to last through until the new crop....This year, demand has remained constant and has kept prices firm but stable, we think with the lack of carryover and the short shipments no one would predict any decline in this market until new crop. 

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Update



Suffice to say the market is very strange and I will explain why.

We have seen a price drop over the last few days and a reluctance of offers from top quality packers but offers from medium/small packers. We have also seen some good offers out of India which we haven’t seen for a while.

Let’s start with RCN (Raw Cashew Kernel) prices have spiked aggressively with worrying news of contract defaults and rejecting of poor shipments. The high price has the smaller and midsized packers “spooked” and in an effort to garner funds have been offering out product for cheaper/losses in order to garner interest and capital in an otherwise quiet time for purchasing to cover RCN costs.

                Vietnam processing has become significantly more sophisticated and reliant of machines (Insert Terminator joke here) which has created an increase in product quantity by around 15%. Better shelling means more complete cashews, less pieces but should drive the market even further down in price.

                Why the sudden offers from India? China which has been the traditional big buyer of India cashews has slowed down due to the Chinese Government clamping down hard on importers smuggling cashews across the border (Jackie Chan is slated to make this into a movie) without paying the duties and are holding up imports. So the factories that were reliant on business as normal are now being forced to look for other avenues to sell their product to.

So to summarize, high price of seed, high production in Vietnam, big trouble in China has all contributed to the market moving down. With the ease in pricing it would seem logical to come in and cover needs and if no big movement happens then it’s possible that pricing will drop a bit again. Even the pieces market has taken a little dip but nothing too exciting. We feel that June/July the market will/may reach the bottom and when the season starts again and demand from China in Aug/Sept will restart the price will rebound to offset the price of RCN. Remember all the packers will tell you, “Cashews are still the best priced nuts” and they are right.

Conclusion: Time to book out now.

Almonds: June 11th is the actual report so will do a separate report when we have all the facts.

Pecans: Trading high, demand has slowed but most of the crop is sold and come the season it should only climb more.


Pistachio: A few weeks I reported on problems with China with US pistachios and it seems it’s also that same border issue, We are being told by the growers that it’s not been a good crop and that in the short term could cause a spike in pricing, but in the long term the growers must be worried that once the deal is signed with Iran and the sanctions lifted they are going to have real competition with Iranian pistachios and that could be a cause of a real price drop which must get them nervous (though not as nervous as Israel I would assume)