June 20, 2009
Cashew market was reasonably active this week. Prices moved up 5-10 cents for W320 and a bit on other grades too. Business was done with USA, Europe and other markets for W240 between 2.80-2.85, W320 up to 2.50/52, W450 between 2.25-2.30, SW320 around 2.35, FB between 1.90-95 FOB. Not much being offered from Vietnam but some processors sold small quantity few cents lower than India.
Nothing new to report on RCN – not much is available in origins. Prices moved up slightly this week in the resale market. Brazil crop may be delayed (as we said in our last report) and currency strength is causing some concern to processors there. RCN supply & price for major portion of 2009 crop are now known and factored into the current levels.
Usage in first half was not as bad as initially feared. Kernel inventories are low. Offtake in third quarter and timing of next round of buying will determine price trend for rest of the year and first half of next year.
If we look at price pattern for last few months, we will see that there have been periodic dips and spurts in activity (and price)… after each spurt, the price has been settling at slightly higher level. It is expected that this trend will continue until the 2010 crops start arriving.
For next few weeks – maybe 2/3 months – we feel that prices will move in the 2.40-2.60 FOB range. If demand in Jul-Sep is normal, prices will probably remain around middle of this range. If demand is strong in Jul-Sep, it is quite possible that prices will go above this range. Downside below this range is limited.
Would appreciate your comments on the market situation, your views on demand and price trends, news from origins & main importing countries and any other info
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai – India
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
MAY 30, 2009
Cashew market has been very quiet for more than two weeks now. This resulted in sales by some processors for W320 at slightly lower levels. Business done during this week was around 2.85 for W240, between 2.40 and 2.45 for W320 and arojnd 2.25 for W450 mainly with off markets. USA & Europe have been quiet – although there is some interest for forwards, their buying ideas do not match sellers expectations.
RCN market has been steady at the higher levels. IVC is trading in wide range between 750 and 850 depending on quality. GB moved up from 825-850 to 950-975. Shipments from IVC are progressing well but yields are very low. Shipments from GB have not started yet.
It seems that current stalemate in kernel market will continue for some time. Processors are unlikely to be aggressive sellers unless kernel prices move up as they are buying RCN at high prices. Kernel buyers will not start taking forward positions until they have a better idea of consumption trends. Till then, they will continue to cover needs as they arise and this will support market at current levels.
As we said in our last report, it seems that kernel availability in 2009 will be 5-10% lower than 2008 and this will (more or less) cancel out any drop in usage. So, unless there is a much bigger drop in usage, lower prices should not be expected more so because bulk of the RCN for 2009 processing has been bought at higher levels.
In summary, we expect market to trade around current levels for the next few weeks and a price range of 2.35 to 2.55 FOB for rest of the year. Any major move outside the range will happen in Jul/Aug depending on when and how much buyers need to buy for shipments in 2009. If they have to come in early to buy significant volume, prices could move up sharply. If they can wait longer and need to buy only small volumes, we could see prices stabilise at lower end of the range
What do you think about market situation ? Please share your views about market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew market has been very quiet for more than two weeks now. This resulted in sales by some processors for W320 at slightly lower levels. Business done during this week was around 2.85 for W240, between 2.40 and 2.45 for W320 and arojnd 2.25 for W450 mainly with off markets. USA & Europe have been quiet – although there is some interest for forwards, their buying ideas do not match sellers expectations.
RCN market has been steady at the higher levels. IVC is trading in wide range between 750 and 850 depending on quality. GB moved up from 825-850 to 950-975. Shipments from IVC are progressing well but yields are very low. Shipments from GB have not started yet.
It seems that current stalemate in kernel market will continue for some time. Processors are unlikely to be aggressive sellers unless kernel prices move up as they are buying RCN at high prices. Kernel buyers will not start taking forward positions until they have a better idea of consumption trends. Till then, they will continue to cover needs as they arise and this will support market at current levels.
As we said in our last report, it seems that kernel availability in 2009 will be 5-10% lower than 2008 and this will (more or less) cancel out any drop in usage. So, unless there is a much bigger drop in usage, lower prices should not be expected more so because bulk of the RCN for 2009 processing has been bought at higher levels.
In summary, we expect market to trade around current levels for the next few weeks and a price range of 2.35 to 2.55 FOB for rest of the year. Any major move outside the range will happen in Jul/Aug depending on when and how much buyers need to buy for shipments in 2009. If they have to come in early to buy significant volume, prices could move up sharply. If they can wait longer and need to buy only small volumes, we could see prices stabilise at lower end of the range
What do you think about market situation ? Please share your views about market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
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