June 20, 2009
Cashew market was reasonably active this week. Prices moved up 5-10 cents for W320 and a bit on other grades too. Business was done with USA, Europe and other markets for W240 between 2.80-2.85, W320 up to 2.50/52, W450 between 2.25-2.30, SW320 around 2.35, FB between 1.90-95 FOB. Not much being offered from Vietnam but some processors sold small quantity few cents lower than India.
Nothing new to report on RCN – not much is available in origins. Prices moved up slightly this week in the resale market. Brazil crop may be delayed (as we said in our last report) and currency strength is causing some concern to processors there. RCN supply & price for major portion of 2009 crop are now known and factored into the current levels.
Usage in first half was not as bad as initially feared. Kernel inventories are low. Offtake in third quarter and timing of next round of buying will determine price trend for rest of the year and first half of next year.
If we look at price pattern for last few months, we will see that there have been periodic dips and spurts in activity (and price)… after each spurt, the price has been settling at slightly higher level. It is expected that this trend will continue until the 2010 crops start arriving.
For next few weeks – maybe 2/3 months – we feel that prices will move in the 2.40-2.60 FOB range. If demand in Jul-Sep is normal, prices will probably remain around middle of this range. If demand is strong in Jul-Sep, it is quite possible that prices will go above this range. Downside below this range is limited.
Would appreciate your comments on the market situation, your views on demand and price trends, news from origins & main importing countries and any other info
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai – India