MAY 30, 2009
Cashew market has been very quiet for more than two weeks now. This resulted in sales by some processors for W320 at slightly lower levels. Business done during this week was around 2.85 for W240, between 2.40 and 2.45 for W320 and arojnd 2.25 for W450 mainly with off markets. USA & Europe have been quiet – although there is some interest for forwards, their buying ideas do not match sellers expectations.
RCN market has been steady at the higher levels. IVC is trading in wide range between 750 and 850 depending on quality. GB moved up from 825-850 to 950-975. Shipments from IVC are progressing well but yields are very low. Shipments from GB have not started yet.
It seems that current stalemate in kernel market will continue for some time. Processors are unlikely to be aggressive sellers unless kernel prices move up as they are buying RCN at high prices. Kernel buyers will not start taking forward positions until they have a better idea of consumption trends. Till then, they will continue to cover needs as they arise and this will support market at current levels.
As we said in our last report, it seems that kernel availability in 2009 will be 5-10% lower than 2008 and this will (more or less) cancel out any drop in usage. So, unless there is a much bigger drop in usage, lower prices should not be expected more so because bulk of the RCN for 2009 processing has been bought at higher levels.
In summary, we expect market to trade around current levels for the next few weeks and a price range of 2.35 to 2.55 FOB for rest of the year. Any major move outside the range will happen in Jul/Aug depending on when and how much buyers need to buy for shipments in 2009. If they have to come in early to buy significant volume, prices could move up sharply. If they can wait longer and need to buy only small volumes, we could see prices stabilise at lower end of the range
What do you think about market situation ? Please share your views about market trend and any other info / news
Pankaj N. Sampat