Mar 15, 2008
Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby
RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price
Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season
Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India