Feb 9, 2008
This week, the market has been quiet but the undertone continues to be firm; offers are in the range of 3.10-3.20 for W240, 2.85-2.95 for W320, 2.60-2.65 for W450. Stray business done in the middle of the range. Indian domestic market eased a bit but the prices for brokens are still much higher than the international market. Vietnam is closed for holidays and Brazil is quiet due to limited availability
Nothing new to report on supply side – everything so far points to good availability in Mar-July but the concern still remains the price level. If prices open too high, processors will be faced with difficult choice. March will give an idea of which way things are headed but a clearer picture will be available by mid April
On the demand side, it seems that there will continue to be steady demand for nearby shipment to meet delivery commitments. There might also be some “insurance” covering by traders to protect against delays and further price increase. There will not be any big forward buying unless there are signs that market can absorb current levels which are higher than average of 2007 prices and substantially higher than average of last few years – there will be the fear that some months down the line, demand may soften due to high prices. Nobody wants to be left carrying the bag both ways – up and down
General feeling is that prices will remain firm in the very short term and move in a narrow range for the medium term.. Trend for second half of the year will depend on what prices are paid for RCN in Mar-May
What do you think about current situation ? What are your views & forecast on demand and price trends - short & medium term ? Would appreciate any info from origins and demand side
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India
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