April 5, 2008
Market was very quiet this week – very little business reported. No change in prices e. g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.00, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some large processors sold few cents higher). Prices for Splits & LWP moved up a bit in domestic market.
WA season seems to be progressing normally - Prices came down 3-4% i.e. Benin is around 950 and IVC is around 875 C&F. If RCN prices ease further, we might see some kernel selling interest as processors would like to have some sales on books before buying too much RCN. But before selling any big volume, they would like to cover reasonable quantities as they would not like to go short again even though prices are high
In Vietnam, Vinacas has organized meetings between processors & some large buyers this weekend.. Outcome of these meetings will have a great impact on supplies from Vietnam and positions & buying strategy of most buyers in main importing countries
Until there is significant improvement in flow of product to USA & Europe – and this is unlikely to happen before June even if enough RCN is available – supply lines will be tight. Need for spot and nearby shipments will probably keep the market firm. In turn, this might result in steady RCN prices affecting ability of processors to offer kernels at lower prices for next few months. What impact this will have in second half of 2008 & early 2009 – on demand and prices - is a big question mark
Overall, difficult times & delicately poised market means that everyone will have to be extra careful for next few weeks
I would appreciate your views on the current situation, information on demand and price trends in your market... and your opinion on how market will develop in coming weeks & months
Pankaj N. Sampat