Monday, March 24, 2008

U.S. peanut industry may need more acres in 2008

U.S. peanut farmers need to increase acreage by as much as 20 percent in 2008 to meet demand and shellers have offered contract prices as high as $500 a ton to compete with corn, cotton, wheat and milo for available land.
“Supplies are very tight,” said Richard Barnhill, president of Mazur and Hockman Peanut Brokers, Albany, Ga.
Barnhill spoke from his Georgia office by phone to the Oklahoma Peanut Expo recently at Lone Wolf, Okla. Barnhill said the current National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) peanut estimate of 1.87 million tons from the 2007 crop “is optimistic. Industry estimates put the figure at 1.805 million tons. That other 65,000 tons is simply not there,” he said. “Either the harvested acreage number or estimated yield is off.”
He said demand for the 2007 crop is about 1.985 million tons, with 1.43 million tagged for domestic consumption, 130,000 tons for seed and 425,000 for export.
“Exports are up more than 20 percent this year,” he said. Those figures don’t mesh with NASS either, but Barnhill said the government does not know what has been exported until after the fact, not “until a bill of lading comes through.”
He said the big three peanut buyers, Clint Williams, Birdsong and Golden Peanut, all indicate increased export sales.
Carryover will be 180,000 tons less than from the 2006 crop. “Supplies got tight last fall. We need peanuts for 2008 to meet demand and build up carry-in. If we have production problems we might not have enough for the industry.”
Demand has pushed up prices. “For three or four years, from about 2003 through 2005, we produced more peanuts than we needed. Prices stayed around 40 cents a pound for medium runners. In 2007, price jumped to 68 cents a pound.”
He said prices likely will remain firm but that the $500 contracts signed last fall will mean an average 2008-crop price around 57 cents a pound. “The market is trying to figure out how many peanuts it has and how many it will need.”
Several other market factors influence peanut prices. “Europe bought a big volume of U.S. peanuts in 2007. Argentina is finished with its crop and China is using more of its production (domestically) than ever. Demand (in China) for oil and edible peanuts has increased.”
He said China is not exporting peanuts this year and that makes Japan, Europe, Mexico and Canada more dependent on the U.S. market. “China typically exports 500,000 metric tons of peanuts. They are not exporting any in 2008.”
Mexico could be a good market for Oklahoma growers. “Oklahoma has a freight advantage to Mexico,” Barnhill said.
The weak U.S. dollar also makes exports a bargain for other countries. “A 65 cents per pound U.S. peanut equals 47 cents a pound in Euros,” he said.
The U.S. energy policy also affects peanuts, though indirectly. Energy and world demand for food have driven grain and soybean prices up so crops are competing for farmland to meet demand.
“The question is, what will U.S. peanut farmers plant?” Early estimates point to a 17.5 percent increase. “But that was before the recent run up in the cotton market. That could have an effect.” He said a 15 percent increase seems more likely.
A 1.43-million acre crop and a yield of 2,900 pounds per acre would net a bit more than 2 million tons of peanuts. “That would be a comfortable carry-out and a hedge if we have lower yields but still not a risk of too many peanuts. The industry is not comfortable with just a 300,000-ton carryover each year. Industry uses about 140,000 tons a month so it takes at least 300,000 to cover transition (from one crop to the next).”
Barnhill said domestic demand likely would stay strong, despite of or maybe because of potential recession. “Peanuts and peanut butter do well in an economy that’s struggling,” he said. “Consumers have less disposable income and one of the first things to go is eating out. Restaurant numbers are already declining.”
When that happens, peanut butter provides a good protein source. “Peanut butter use is up 24 percent over last January,” he said. “So far, higher prices have not caused any sign of decline in demand.”
He doesn’t anticipate that a price in the middle 50 cents per pound range will affect consumption significantly. He also doesn’t anticipate prices for corn, beans and other grains to decline within the next year or two but expects a three- to five-year trend for “grain and peanut prices at these levels or better.”
Barnhill also advised any growers with 2007 peanuts in the loan not to forfeit. “See a local sheller,” he said.
Alan Orloff, Clint Williams Company in Madill, Okla., said he’s “more optimistic about peanuts than at any time in recent years. China has a huge impact on the market and they are not exporting. For years China dumped millions of tons of peanuts on the world market at low prices. They can’t compete with U.S. peanuts on quality. This year they reneged on contracts and blindsided the industry.”
Mexico was a big buyer and with China out of the market, “Mexico is a big reason for today’s higher peanut prices,” Orloff said. “Things are looking up for peanuts.”
Tyron Spearman, Tifton, Ga., editor of Peanut Market News, an electronic newsletter, said Georgia growers likely will increase acreage in 2008. “Soil moisture has been replenished,” he said.
Early estimates point to a 1.225 million-acre U. S. crop. “A 15 percent to 18 percent increase in acreage will not hurt,” he said. But getting that bump may not be easy with competition from soybeans, corn and cotton.
“Soybean seed supply is short, however. We’ll need to treat more peanut seed if we plant this acreage.”
He’s fearful that a 24 percent jump might “bust the market next year.”
Spearman said the USDA estimate of domestic peanut use for food from the 2007 crop is 5 percent down. They also estimate a 5 percent drop in exports. He agrees with Barnhill that the export figure likely is wrong and he hopes the domestic consumption figure is also in error. “I think it is.”
Spearman said Japan will be back in the market for U.S. peanuts. “And Russia is now our number four customer after they built an M&M plant.”
He said peanut imports have declined by 91 percent in recent years.
Spearman said peanut framer numbers, unfortunately, have also dropped, down from 17,916 in 2001 to only 10,002 in 2007. “That figure has leveled off now,” he said.
“For now, we have a tremendous demand; the outlook is good.”
Oklahoma State University Extension economist Kim Anderson said farmers need to look closely at crop options this year and “use prices to figure out the best option to pay for land, labor, capital and management.”
He offered prices of crops competing for acres. Wheat futures market in early March was at $11.40 a bushel with contract prices 70 cents off that, $10.70. December corn was at $5.79 with contracts off only a dime at $5.69. Soybeans contracts with futures at $14.17 were $1 less at $13.17.
Peanut contracts were competing with the $500-a-ton contracts last fall.
“The soybean market started going up in October,” Anderson said. “The industry needed acreage and bid the price up. The corn market started bidding up in December. Cotton supplies are not tight but prices went up to buy land.”
Crop budgets indicate peanut production costs will hit near $535 per acre. A 2-ton yield at a $500-per-ton contract price brings in $1,000 per acre. Subtracting the $535 per acre production costs and another $60 per acre for drying leaves a $405 per acre profit.
“Prices are high, inputs are high, so growers have to invest more money for greater returns,” Anderson said. “Regardless of the crop, everything comes with risk. Take a pencil or a computer and look at the market, management, land, labor and capital and see which commodity gives the highest return.
“Don’t get enamored with price,” he said. “You don’t make money just selling; you make it on production and management. You have to have a quality product to sell.”

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

India: Cashew output on the rise, except in State

The government, on Monday, said cashew production in the country has increased, except in Kerala where the output has slumped to 72,000 tonnes in 2006-07 from 95,000 tonnes in 2003-04. "The production of cashew in the country is in an increasing trend, except in Kerala", Minister of State for Agriculture Kanti Lal Bhuria said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. The data submitted by Mr. Bhuria shows that total cashew production in the country has gone up by 8.2% to 6.2 lakh tonnes during 2006-07, compared to 5.73 lakh tonnes in an year-ago period.Kerala, among the top cashew producing States, showed a declining trend in its output at 72,000 tonnes in 2006-07 against 95,000 tonnes in 2003-04, it said. Maharashtra topped in cashew production at 1.97 lakh tonnes, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 99,000 tonnes, West Bengal at 84,000 tonnes, Kerala at 72,000 tonnes and Karnataka at 52,000 tonnes. As far as acreage under the crop is concerned, the data showed a downward trend in Kerala, 80,000 hectares in 2006-07 from 1,00,000 hectares five years ago. However, the yield level has increased marginally to 900 a kg.Mr. Bhuria said the Kerala State Agency for Cashew Cultivation had not submitted any proposal for financial aid to enhance cashew cultivation in the State. However, to improve the cashew output in the country, the National Horticulture Mission is being implemented since 2005-06 to promote holistic growth of the horticulture sector, which includes cashew, Mr. Bhuria said. New plantation and replanting old and uneconomical cashew gardens with high yielding varieties are the major activities undertaken under the mission to increase cashew production in the country, he said.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Almond Market Update from Ned

Dear Friends:

Almond bloom is almost complete and pollination conditions were almost perfect the past 3 weeks. Accordingly, most expect a record 2008 crop—the 3rd record crop in a row. Until 2007 we had never had even 2 record crops in a row. The record crops are the result of increased plantings in 2003, 4 & 5 that are coming into production in 2006, 7 & 8. In April, we’ll have a look at the crop set on the trees, followed by the May crop and acreage estimates. With more than 50,000 more acres coming into production, I would expect the 2008 crop to exceed 1.4 billion. I would also expect that this will be a year similar to past record almond crops—starting at a low price with strong contracting and shipments bringing prices up as we move through harvest.

We all like to see a big crop but don’t like the price adjustment that goes with it. Almonds prices have come down .15 to .20 per lb over the past month. Buyers are waiting for some stability before stepping in to contract. Second hand traders have tried to move the price for Std S/R down into the mid 1.50’s but sales from California seem to have leveled off in the 1.60 to 1.65 range for 2007 and 2008 crops. The 1.50 price range for Std grade makes grower prices close to the cost of production and that is usually where prices stop.

A week ago, the Almond Board showed February shipments of 86 million—up 18%, compared with 73 million a year ago. Year to date shipments are 784 million—up 15% over last year. We expect to stay on this track and finish with a carry out inventory of about 240 million—100 million more than the past several years. This will make for a smoother transition to 2008 crop and keep market prices similar for the 2 crop years.

Following are approximate market prices, unpasteurized.
2007 crop (2008 is similar)
Nonpareil Supreme 23/25 2.50 USD/lb FOB/FAS California
Nonpareil Supreme 27/30 2.15
Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL 1.95
Butte SSR 27/30 AOL 1.75
Cal Std unsized 5% 1.65
Blanched Sliced 2.55


Happy St Patrick’s Day to all those with Irish blood, Irish names or Irish spirit. Please send your comments and questions.

Best regards, Ned

Weekly cashews update

Mar 15, 2008


Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby

RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price

Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season

Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.

Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India

Monday, March 03, 2008

Weekly cashews update

Mar 1, 2008

Cashew prices came down a few cents – W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55 FOB but there was very little activity.

Most processors do not seem to be keen to make any big sales till they have a clear picture of RCN pricing in the three main producing areas.. But some processors have sold limited quantities at slightly lower levels

Kernel buyers also seem to do not want to make any big purchases till they see how demand develops in coming weeks given that current prices are quite high compared to last year’s levels. Meantime they are buying some quantities “when needed” or when they have some new enquiries from endusers.. If new demand is limited, buying trend will continue to be restrained

Apart from some “early” news of some concerns with Vietnam crop, there is no adverse news from any origin. Prices have softened a bit in India & Vietnam. Initial offers from West Africa were high but did not induce any significant buying interest. During March, RCN activity will pick up and depending on prices paid, we will see kernel price range evolving with offers from processors as they start buying RCN.

In last few months, all commodity prices have gone up substantially – it is to be seen whether these higher prices will be sustained in coming months and more specifically what impact these higher prices will have on demand for different categories of products

In cashews, we can expect higher volatility in Mar/Apr depending on news from origins and need of processors to make sales. After that, a medium term range for second half 2008 will be established – it seems it will be higher than last years range but it is to be seen how it will compare with the current levels

Would appreciate your comments and views & any news / info

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India

Monday, February 25, 2008

Weekly cashews update

Feb 23, 2008

Cashew market continues to be quiet with a slightly soft tone.. Medium & small packers have sold W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55, SW around 2.45 FOB. Large packers are still asking for higher prices but no trades reported at higher levels. Prices in Indian domestic market for Splits & LWP have also eased a bit

USA roasters have bought some quantities in last few weeks for FH 2008 shipments. Europe industry seems to be well covered for most of 2008 but importers still have to buy to fulfill earlier low priced sales. Both seem to be content to pick up some quantities to cover immediate needs and wait for newcrop trends to be stabilized before making any large purchases. This seems to be prudent because any big demand now will mean higher RCN prices and consequently, inability for processors to reduce kernel prices (especially since other costs are also going up and dollar is lower compared to 2007)

Spot RCN prices in India and Vietnam were high due to limited arrivals. Prices should ease as arrivals pick up full flow in Vietnam in 2-4 weeks and India in 4-6 weeks. For the last few years, Indian RCN has been out of reach for exporting procesors (small quantities are bought to cater to niche markets - Rest of the crop is bought by regional processors who supply the domestic market)

Prices for WA RCN have opened with parity at current kernel prices but since there is not much forward demand at current levels, processors – those who bought Indonesia & East Africa at high prices and also those who have prior sales at lower levels – are unlikely to buy large quantities unless kernel demand picks up. If this does not happen, RCN prices may ease in Mar/Apr when arrivals in West Africa are at their peak (but prices will still be higher than last season). Reasonable RCN prices would be a good thing as too high prices will adversely affect all segments of the chain and impact medium & long term demand

Overall supply position seems to be comfortable (although there might be temporary tightness from time to time).. So, trend for 2008 will depend on developments on demand side… Supply side will have impact only if there is any big decline in any origin or if prices remain unreasonably high (this should be clear by end Mar/mid April at the latest).. Meantime, we will probably see some sharp movements in market during next weeks with crop news (and rumours) affecting RCN and kernel activity.

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views on demand and market trend, news of crop prospects and any other info / news

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat

Mumbai India

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Pistachio group selects industry veteran as leader

Pistachio group selects industry veteran as leader

(2/19/2008)
The Western Pistachio Association of Fresno, Calif., has selected industry veteran Richard Matoian as its new executive director.
The association, founded in 1980, promotes pistachios growers' interests.
With the June 2007 demise of the California Pistachio Commission, a state marketing order, the association stepped in to expand membership and programs and continue work in areas such as production and nutritional research, promotion and governmental affairs.
“We are very happy to have found a leader with Richard’s experience,” says association chairman Mike Woolf. “He will be a tremendous asset in advancing the interests of the U.S. pistachio industry.”
In 2007, U.S. pistachio growers harvested a record 415 million pounds from more than 115,000 bearing acres.
For the past five years, Matoian served as manager of the Fresno-based California Fig Advisory Board, a state marketing order that promotes California-grown figs.
Previously he served as president of the Fresno-based California Grape & Tree Fruit League, a statewide trade association that represents table grape and tree fruit industries.
Matoian will officially begin his duties with the pistachio association on May 1.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Ouch!!!!


Just nuts: Supermarkets thrive on women cashew workers’ poverty

New ActionAid report shows that poverty pay and dangerous conditions are the secret behind the success of UK supermarkets. Who Pays? shows that the way UK supermarkets do business with developing countries is locking women workers into appallingly low pay and dangerous conditions.

In India the report examines the explosion in black market cashew nuts processing factories and how women workers are hit hardest by the drive to cut costs, caused partly by big supermarkets’ relentless pursuit of profits:

“That’s more than I get for three weeks’ work,” Mercy, a cashew nut worker says on discovering that the kilo of cashew nuts, which she has been paid Rs 4.25 to shell, will retail for Rs 757.10 or more in a UK supermarket.

Not only does the cashew factory job pay a pittance, it is also jeopardizing Mercy’s health.

“I get pains in my knees from squatting all day. I get headaches, dizziness and vomiting from breathing in the smoke (caused by the cashew roasting process).”

Women cashew nut workers also showed ActionAid researchers the permanent scars on their hands due to the corrosive acids produced by the nuts when shelled. Workers earn as little as Rs 25.2 (30 UK pence) a day, less than half of the minimum wage.

Mercy is one of an estimated 500,000 women who process cashews for a living in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and of two million people employed by the cashew industry across India, the world’s biggest exporter of shelled cashews. Over 6,700 tonnes were shipped to the UK from the country in 2005. Of these, at least 80% are sold through supermarkets.

Profits sans human rights

Babu Mathew, country director, ActionAid India says, “Securing a minimum wage and decent working conditions is already a big challenge for women and other vulnerable workers. Pressure from big retailers to cut costs makes their struggle all the more difficult. Foreign investment has to come with human rights standards attached.”

ActionAid researchers found that for every pound shoppers spend on cashews in British supermarkets, just one penny – and sometimes only half a penny – goes to the women workers who process the nuts. Another 22 pence is shared between farmers, traders, processing companies and exporters in India.

Workers are being trapped into a cycle of poverty and insecurity as a result of UK supermarkets’ demands for lower prices and constant changes to orders.

“Core labour standards are clearly being flouted. The Indian government is obliged to ensure that these are met. Workers also need to know their rights. In Kanyakumari ActionAid is supporting a local group in educating women and children on labour standards and encouraging workers to come together to demand minimum wages and decent working conditions,” says Babu Mathew.

The core labour standards are 1. Freedom of association (the right to form a trade union). 2. No forced labour. 3. No discrimination (in pay and conditions). 4. No child labour. “When you try to cut prices you are encouraging the re-emergence of all of these things,” adds Mathew.

What can the British government do?

“The big four UK supermarkets are increasingly eager to prove their ethical credentials to their customers. In reality the supermarkets’ ever-growing profits are boosted by the scandalously low wages and appalling conditions suffered by the women who produce the food and clothes we buy every day,” said Claire Melamed, head of trade and corporates campaign at ActionAid.

UK supermarkets are currently under investigation. ActionAid is calling for the UK Government to introduce an independent watchdog that would hold supermarkets to account for their actions overseas. Even the industry’s most effective voluntary code, the Ethical Trading Initiative, has not delivered the sweeping changes needed.

Claire Melamed says, “The supermarket giants have proved unwilling or unable to police themselves effectively. The British government needs to think very hard about the kind of corporate image UK PLC wants to portray – and if it isn’t one of exploitation and hardship then it must step in now.”

“A watchdog would make sure that UK supermarkets send a bit more of the value back to countries like India and Bangladesh that produce the goods that fill their shelves. Workers would then have a better chance of taking matters into their own hands, and negotiating higher wages and better conditions,” adds Melamed.

ActionAid is also asking the Competition Commission to recommend an independent supermarket regulator as part of its ongoing inquiry into the UK grocery market

Facts:

More than £7 out of every £10 spent on groceries in Britain goes into supermarket tills
Poor countries earn £7 million a day from food and clothes bought by UK shoppers in supermarkets
Women make up 60% to 90% of the clothing and fresh produce workforce in developing countries
Photo credits: Tom Pietrasik/ActionAid


actionaidspace_ asia bangladesh brasil chembakolli china guatemala india ireland italy kenya nepal nigeria pakistan spain sri lanka thailand uk usa vietnam


READ MORE:

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Endangered livelihoods
Download Who Pays?




Monday, February 11, 2008

Weekly cashews update

Feb 9, 2008

This week, the market has been quiet but the undertone continues to be firm; offers are in the range of 3.10-3.20 for W240, 2.85-2.95 for W320, 2.60-2.65 for W450. Stray business done in the middle of the range. Indian domestic market eased a bit but the prices for brokens are still much higher than the international market. Vietnam is closed for holidays and Brazil is quiet due to limited availability

Nothing new to report on supply side – everything so far points to good availability in Mar-July but the concern still remains the price level. If prices open too high, processors will be faced with difficult choice. March will give an idea of which way things are headed but a clearer picture will be available by mid April

On the demand side, it seems that there will continue to be steady demand for nearby shipment to meet delivery commitments. There might also be some “insurance” covering by traders to protect against delays and further price increase. There will not be any big forward buying unless there are signs that market can absorb current levels which are higher than average of 2007 prices and substantially higher than average of last few years – there will be the fear that some months down the line, demand may soften due to high prices. Nobody wants to be left carrying the bag both ways – up and down

General feeling is that prices will remain firm in the very short term and move in a narrow range for the medium term.. Trend for second half of the year will depend on what prices are paid for RCN in Mar-May

What do you think about current situation ? What are your views & forecast on demand and price trends - short & medium term ? Would appreciate any info from origins and demand side

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India

Monday, February 04, 2008

Storm costs swell

Friday, February 01, 2008

Storm costs swell
Crop damage estimates climb into hundreds of millions

Elizabeth Larson
Capital Press

Friday, February 01, 2008


Estimates of agricultural losses as a result of January storms continue to rise in Northern California counties known for their orchard production.

Storms in early January - specifically Jan. 4 - dealt serious damage to the Northern Sacramento Valley counties of Butte, Glenn, Tehama, Sutter, Yuba and Colusa.

Hardest hit was Butte County, with about $69 million in damages, a figure that includes not just the coming year's crops but the replacement costs for mature trees and lost income to growers, said Robert Maurer, county executive director of Butte County's Farm Service Agency.

"Almonds were the hardest hit," said Maurer, who said that they're estimating $65 million just for the county's damaged almond acreage, with $2.2 million in losses for plums and $1.9 million for walnuts.

Maurer said the process of seeking emergency funds has started, but he said funding is very tight right now.

To get emergency funding, he said, there usually has to be an emergency designation, which is triggered by a 30-percent crop loss. This is an unusual case, said Maurer, because the losses aren't restricted to crop damage.

Nick Oliver, supervising agriculture and standards biologist for Sutter County's Agriculture Department, put that county's initial losses at $13.6 million, with overall damages at $60.5 million.

Winds in some areas of Sutter county, especially around the Sutter Buttes, reached 70 miles per hour, Oliver said.

That played havoc with the area's almonds which, like those in Butte, were hit hardest. Sutter has only about 5,000 acres of almonds - far smaller than Butte's 39,000 acres - and so the county's overall losses were higher. Oliver said growers lost 50 percent of their crop.

Other commodity crop losses totaled 15 percent for prunes, 10 percent for English walnuts and 3 percent for cling peaches.

Glenn County Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jean Miller estimated that the accumulated damage to Glenn's agriculture totaled $48 million, a figure which also accounts for long-term losses due to downed mature trees.

"When you lose a tree, you've lost 10 years of production and most of the trees were in their prime," she said.

The Jan. 4 storm brought fierce winds which was a major factor in destruction of orchard trees.

"I don't remember storm damage this bad over the last 10 years at least, maybe even longer," Miller said.

The wind also knocked down telephone poles which caused power outages, resulting in thousands of gallons of milk and cream being dumped by area dairies and cheese processors, Miller said.

Other losses included damaged bee hives and a 50-percent loss on the county's navel orange harvest, the latter totaling about $270,000.

In Colusa County, Assistant Agriculture Commissioner Jon Richter totaled this year's crop damage for orchards at $5 million, with replacement and production costs at $14 million for a $19 million total.

"We put in for a crop disaster designation with the Office of Emergency Services," Richter said.

The Padre variety of almond tree, in the 15- to 20-year-old range, seemed to be the biggest victim of the winter winds, Richter said. Many of the trees had not rooted deeply enough, they were planted on an east-to-west pattern and their larger canopies caught the winds.

Rick Gurrola, agriculture commissioner for Tehama County, said almonds, walnuts and prunes took the brunt of the damage from the storm in his county, with almonds projected at a nearly $4 million loss, with all crop damage and losses totaling $18.5 million.

Yuba County Agricultural Commissioner Louie B. Mendoza Jr. said their prunes were hit hardest, especially older orchards. Walnuts and peaches had minor losses.

The winter weather "has slowed down operations quite a bit," he said.

The county's overall agriculture losses are at $7.4 million, a figure which Mendoza said includes some infrastructure, such as damaged shops, buildings and packing houses.

Elizabeth Larson is a staff writer based in Lucerne. E-mail: elarson@capitalpress.com.

Weekly cashews update

Feb 2, 2008
In the last few days, there has been reasonable activity in the cashew market and prices have moved up a few cents. Business done to USA & Europe - W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.80, W450 around 2.55 FOB. Most of the trades were for nearbys but some business was done for second quarter as well. Vietnam has been quiet as people started going away for holidays
Spot RCN prices are firm and this is likely to continue in Feb till new crops start in Vietnam, India, West Africa from March onwards. Weather conditions in all these origins have been good and if nothing adverse happens in next few weeks, we can expect good crops in all the origins. RCN price trend will depend on how processors operate in the first few weeks of the crop.
Situation is very difficult. If kernel demand is strong in Feb/Mar, processors will be inclined to be aggressive at the beginning the season and this will put upward pressure on prices. And if kernel market does not support the higher levels, there is a risk of processors holding high priced inventory. If kernel demand slows down, processors might be able to keep away from RCN buying for some time and this will help to keep RCN prices at reasonable levels.
Feb/Mar will be crucial months – trend and volume of kernel activity in this period will have significant impact on the cashew market for rest of the year
Would appreciate your views on the market situation - esp. on the demand side and also how you feel market will move in coming weeks / months + any info from origins
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

At least eight Japanese were sickened,

Source: Dow Jones Newswires
30/01/2008
Tokyo, Jan. 30 - At least eight Japanese were sickened, including a child who remains in a coma, after eating Chinese-made dumplings contaminated with an insecticide, police and health officials said Wednesday.

A family of three in western Hyogo and another family of five in Chiba, near Tokyo, suffered severe abdominal pains, vomiting and diarrhea after eating the frozen dumplings imported from China by a Japanese company, the Health Ministry said.
A 5-year-old girl in Chiba remained in a coma and her mother, two brothers and a sister were in serious condition, a Chiba police spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity in accordance with police policy.
Investigators found traces of organic phosphorus insecticide in the dumplings, their containers and the patients' vomit, the ministry said in a statement. Authorities were attempting to determine the source of the contamination, it said.
Police were investigating the case, and the ministry has ordered the dumplings' importer and distributor, JT Foods Co. Ltd. - an affiliate of Japan's largest tobacco company - to recall the product.
The dumplings were imported in November from the same Chinese manufacturer, Hebei Foodstuffs Import & Export Group Tianyang Food Processing, the ministry said.
Telephones weren't answered at the General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which oversees the safety of China's exports. The agency's Web site made no mention of the incident.
JT Foods distributed 13 tons of dumplings each in Chiba and Hyogo, the ministry said.
China's exports have come under intense scrutiny in the past year after a number of potentially deadly chemicals were found in goods including toothpaste, toys, pet food and seafood.
China's government launched a four-month campaign last August to improve the quality of Chinese products and restore international confidence in its goods. Officials termed the campaign a success.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Vietnam to hold world top cashew exporter position this year



Vietnam’s cashew industry aimed to export 160,000 tons of cashews worth US$680 million in 2008, the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) said Saturday.
Vietnam was likely to remain the world’s top cashew exporter for the third year in succession, the association said.

The nuts were worth around $4,750 a ton, it said.

Vietnam has exported cashews to 40 countries; the US, China and Europe are the largest markets.

Exports earned $579 million in the first eleven months of last year, 26 percent more than 2006.

Reported by Quang Thuan


Story from Thanh Nien News
Published: 27 January, 2008, 11:50:52 (GMT+7)
Copyright Thanh Nien News

Monday, January 21, 2008

Nut trees hot ticket at nurseries

Bob Krauter
Capital Press


As growers push out older almond orchards like this one near Santa Nella last year, many are replacing them with new trees. A check of major nurseries in the state shows that almonds, walnuts and pistachio trees are in high demand.
California farmers' love affair with nuts shows no signs of stopping anytime soon based on a check of the state's major nurseries. Grower demand for almond, walnut and pistachio trees - in addition to olives and some types of citrus - remains strong.

Jack Poukish, general manager of business and sales for Sierra Gold Nursery in Yuba City, said demand exceeds supply of bareroot walnut trees. Other nuts are going strong, too.

"There is always going to be a strong trend forward for orchardists to lean to lower-labor tree crops - that means almonds, walnuts, this new super high-density olive system for the production of olive oil," Poukish said. "Orchardists are hesitant to increase acreage for high-labor-intensive crops like cherries or peaches."

At 615,000 bearing acres in 2007, almonds are the state's No. 1 nut crop. A decade ago, almond acreage was 442,000 acres, but as acreage has increased the industry's marketing and sales have kept pace. Poukish said sales of almond trees have slowed, but they still represent a major portion of sales for major nurseries.

"A lot of people thought almonds were overdone 10 years ago and we have seen such an expansion of the market and acreage," Poukish said. "Yes, we probably hit a peak about three years ago, but just like it is for Burchell, Wilson and Fowler and the other major bareroot nurseries, it is a significant segment for all of the bareroot nurseries serving orchardists in California. Even if it was just on replant business alone, that's a lot of trees."

The early January winter storms that swept through the Sacramento Valley blew down an estimated 10,000 almond trees, and Poukish said growers are already lining up replacement trees.

Tom Burchell of Burchell Nursery in Modesto, agrees that almonds, walnuts and pistachios are the hot items for nurseries.

"The nuts are going nuts. We wish we had more walnut trees," Burchell said. "Almond sales are a little flat right now, but they have been good. Pistachios have been good."

According to state data, bearing pistachio acreage has risen 68 percent between 1997 and 2006. Walnut acreage is up a healthy 12 percent for the same period.

Both Burchell and Poukish said sales of trees for high-density olive plantings is one of the newest and hottest trends.

"There is a positive trend in the super high-density olives," Poukish said. "There's been significant acreage planted in both the Sacramento Valley and the San Joaquin Valley although that is still a very new industry that many people are waiting to see how things go."

Because the high-density olives can be picked mechanically, Poukish said they fit with what California orchardists are looking for to avoid the scarcity and higher costs of labor.

Among the other in-demand trees being planted in the state are seedless citrus, particularly mandarins.

Bob McManaman, nursery sales for Tree Source Citrus Nursery in Exeter, said the Tango variety of seedless mandarin is popular. State data show that bearing acreage of tangerines, mandarins, tangelos and other specialty citrus has risen 61 percent between 1997 and 2006. Seedless mandarins like the Tango have helped lead that charge.

"It is anticipated to be real successful," McManaman said. He added that that the Cara Cara navel orange has seen strong sales in his area and lemons are making a comeback.

"We are seeing a greater interest in lemons than typically what we would. We don't have substantial lemon acreage and we are by no means a premiere lemon area, but for us there is more lemon interest than we have had in the past," he said. The Limoneira 8A Lisbon, because it is less frost sensitive, is the lemon variety that growers in the southern San Joaquin Valley are planting, noted McManaman.

Tom Burchell said apricots have languished for several years. Bearing acreage of apricots has steadily declined from 20,000 acres a decade ago to about 13,800. Jack Poukish said sales of apple trees, which had been on a decline for years, have reversed course.

"There is a pretty good trend on apples and nurseries in the Northwest and those on California that grow apples for the Northwest have been seeing an increasing trend in nursery tree sales," Poukish said.

While sales of prune and cling peach trees have remained stable, pear tree sales have slumped.

The pear thing for nurseries is very dead," Poukish said. "There are no new pear plantings to speak of."

Bartlett pear acreage which hit 15,600 bearing acres in 1997 has dropped to about 12,000 acres.

Bob Krauter is the California editor based in Sacramento. E-mail: bkrauter@capitalpress.com.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Weekly Cashews Update

Jan 19, 2008

Cashew market has been very quiet in the last two weeks but sellers price ideas have moved up a few cents due to higher RCN prices & weaker USD.. Last traded levels were W240 around 2.85, W320 around 2.55 FOB (about ten days ago) and now sellers are asking minimum 10 cents higher (large packers are not offering). Except for stray sales to some markets, there has not been any business at higher levels to main line markets but there is reasonable interest at last traded levels

RCN prices in all origins have moved up (as there is not much available now). Even in India, small processors who cater to domestic market are buying spot parcels of imported RCN at high prices. This will continue for few weeks until newcrop arrivals start. So far conditions in all origins have been good - in coming weeks we can expect various news & rumours which will affect market sentiment & prices but cleatr picture will not be available for quite some time

In importing countries, inventories are low and if demand for deliveries in first quarter is high, prompt shipment demand will continue and this will keep the market firm. Otherwise, there is a possibility that prices may ease in Feb/Mar when RCN arrivals start in Vietnam and India

Overall, downside is limited and volatility may be high in the next month or two. Activity in this period will have an important impact on prices for rest of the year

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Almonds Market update from Ned

Dear Friends:

Happy New Year! We are off to a quiet start as the almonds market prices remain steady to slightly lower from last month. Almond Board Position Report for December was released last Tuesday showing record shipments for December at 94.5 million (just ahead of last December‘s 94 mil) and record crop receipts of 1.314 billion. We expect total receipts to be in the range of 1.350 to 1.360 billion—a little more than the 1.330 billion estimate. As for the market, buyers are holding off covering more at this time in hopes of lower prices. Most handlers are holding firm at present prices, so we have a standoff. Commitments remain ahead of last year and most handlers are busy shipping this month, so we don’t expect much price decline in the near future. Buyers and sellers will be watching pollination outlook a month from now as we begin bloom. These observations will affect market prices up or down. We always recommend covering needs gradually over the crop year for an average price and minimum risk.

Here is how the supply looks for the remaining 7 months of the crop year—same as projected last month:
Carry in Aug 1, 2007 134 mil lbs
2007 crop marketable (97%) 1320
Supply 1454
Shipments expected 1200 (1066 last year + 13%)
Carry out July 31, 2008 254

Now that the supply is known, the only variable is demand. Year to date, we have shipped 14% more than last year. We need to ship 10 to 15% more, which would leave a carryout of 225 to 275 mil lbs, so need to keep up the present pace of shipments. As always, we have the potential for price decrease (slowing shipments &/or good pollination) and for price increase (stronger shipments &/or poor pollination). Following prices are at the asking or trading level. Many buyers are looking for .05 to .10/lb lower:

Following are market prices, unpasteurized.
2007 crop
Nonpareil Supreme 23/25 2.70
Nonpareil Supreme 27/30 2.35
Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL 2.30
Butte SSR 27/30 AOL 2.05
Cal Std unsized 5% 1.90
Blanched Sliced 2.75

Please send your comments and questions.

Best regards, Ned

Ned T Ryan

Monday, December 24, 2007

Weekly Cashews Report

Dec 22, 2007

Market has been quiet in the last two weeks – not much trading from India with USA & Europe but steady business with other markets. Prices have come down few cents from the peaks of November. Levels traded W240 around 2.95, W320 around 2.60, W450 around 2.50 FOB

USA & Europe are showing interest at the lower levels – Indian packers are not keen to sell at these levels but there are reports of some sales from Vietnam for Apr forwards..

No fresh news from Brazil – jury is still out on the size of the crop… if it is as small as some people say, availability from Brazil in 2008 will be much lower than last few years

Rawcashew prices are steady – Tanzania around 1050-1075, Mozambique around 850 C&F. It seems availability from these two origins will be more or less the same as last year but prices are substantially higher & with increased processing costs, the parity is higher than current kernel prices

Going into 2008, the cashew market is at a crossroad. If the NEED of USA & Europe buyers to cover in Jan/Feb is high (like it was in Nov) then prices will move up again and timing will be very wrong. RCN prices in second quarter – when over 70% of the world crop is traded – will be high. If processors are forced to buy RCN at high prices, it will set the floor for kernel prices for Apr/May forwards - it will be interesting to see what impact it will have on buying for second half of the year. On the other hand, if buyers do not NEED to buy too much in the first quarter, prices will remain in a reasonable range and there may not be much movement

First few weeks of 2008 are going to be unusually crucial & critical – volume of activity in this period will have great impact on price (and demand) trend and consequently the fortunes of the cashew sector for rest of the year

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, consumption trends, forecast of demand and market trend.... and any other info / news

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai India

Israel seeks US help to fight Iranian pistachios

Posted Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:50am AEDT

A US official says Israel has asked for US help in cracking down on illegal pistachio nut imports from Iran, after Washington warned the trade was hurting efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear programme.

Israel imports pistachios worth 100 million shekels ($29.8 million) annually, mostly from Turkey.

But Washington says nuts from arch-foe Iran are mixed in with the shipments, undermining economic sanctions meant to force Tehran to stop developing its nuclear capabilities.

US Under Secretary of Agriculture Mark Keenum urged Israeli Agriculture Minister Shalom Simhon this week to combat the problem. Mr Simhon agreed, but asked for guidance on how Israel might proceed.

"Israel doesn't have to be urged too much to do something that will deny Iran trade dollars," said Zvi Alon, an official in Israel's Agriculture Ministry.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Is She A Nut ? Please Comment

Please Comment and tell me What you think ? the funniest comment gets 5 free pound of pistachio nuts

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

India, Brazil, Vietnam launch cashew alliance
newsIndia, Brazil and Vietnam, the three main cashew producers, have formed a global alliance for cashew with a view to protecting their interests, union minister of state for commerce Jairam Ramesh said. The grouping would have its headquarters in India and the government is debating the feasibility of locating it at Kochi, Kollam, Bangalore or Mumbai amidst pressures for locating it at Kollam, the minister said at a press meet.Unlike the OPEC, the minister said, the cashew alliance would work as a lose confederation of three major cashew producers of the world, aiming to ensure that interests of the three countries do not get hurt. India, which produces and imports half a million tonnes of cashew annually, is the world's largest cashew producer, importer, processor and consumer. The alliance will ensure that high productivity in a country will not have destabilising effect in the other two countries, he said. The concept was ready and the three countries have agreed for such an alliance. In the next six months, a decision in this regard is likely to be taken, he said. On the proposal for setting up a cashew board, the minister said the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade had been asked to carry out a study on the best way to organise the cashew industry in India.A global alliance for promotion of cashew had already come into force with two of the three major cashew producing and exporting countries as India and Vietnam and signing an agreement in this regard in January. Besides ensuring price stability, Brazil, India and Vietnam will work jointly and through their governments to induce international organisations like FAO, UNIDO and other similar agencies to focus on cashews with the objective of increasing consumption of cashews in all countries as a food of importance.These countries intend to work towards promotion of cashews in new and expanding areas of indirect consumption such as chocolate, confectionery and bakery products, and as food ingredients. Apart from promoting the commodity, these countries want to work in a spirit of cooperation for research and development, primarily for studies in nutritional and health benefits and product development.The alliance also plans to enlist the support of the International Nuts and Dried Fruits Council, which is specialised in the promotion of treenuts and dried fruits.The three countries would also regularly exchange information on crop prospects; production, import and export figures; reliable market information; and government policies affecting the industry. Source: domain-b.com