Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia may witness fall in crop
Ground realities
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains.
Firm price trends likely to persist till the end of the current year
Our Bureau
Kochi, June 16 Cashew prices have begun to firm up on projections of lower production in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia this year.
Raw nut production
Raw cashew nuts production for 2007-08 is expected to be lower by 20 and 10 per cent in Vietnam and Brazil respectively, while the Indian crop is expected to be normal, the Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI) has pointed out.
Preliminary indications are that shortfalls are expected from the Indonesian crop as well.
Increased global cashew consumption and greater consumption from India are also expected to contribute to the firm price trends.
Some crop damage has been reported from the major producing regions of the country such as Kerala and Mangalore due to incessant rains. Prices, which had been reigning low for close to a decade have begun to climb back to the peaks of 1999.
Record price
F.o.b prices of cashew grade W-320 have risen to $3.04 a pound in April, closing in on the record price of $3.16 a pound attained in August 1999.
Prices had subsequently touched a low of $1.66 a pound during March 2003. The price spurt of 1999 was mainly contributed by rising domestic and global consumption, CEPCI said.
Rise in acreage
However, there has been significant growth in area and production of cashew since then. The area under cashew registered a growth of 4.2 per cent to 8.5 lakh hectares and production grew by eight per cent to 6.2 lakh tonnes in 2007-08, as against the previous year. This is far ahead of the 7.06 lakh hectares under the crop and 5.2 lakh tonnes production of 1999.
On the processing front, import of raw cashew nut this year was reported to be 6.05 lakh tonnes and the kernel exports stood at 1.14 lakh tonnes. The domestic consumption is also expected to be higher this year on account of increased disposable income of the people and better health awareness. Though raw cashew nut imports have risen this year, kernel exports have dropped due to the sharp appreciation in the value of the rupee.
Trend to persist
Going by the present trends in production, consumption and growing purchasing power in the hands of the consumers, industry sources were optimistic that the firm price trends would persist to the end of the current year and future trends would become evident with the next crop.
Showing posts with label Cashews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cashews. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
Weekly Cashews Update
May 17, 2008
Cashew prices moved up a few cents this week due to lack of offers. Some business was done at the higher prices e.g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.05 FOB, W450 around 2.85 FOB for shipments upto Oct.
From India, limited quantities are available for nearbys and due to the high RCN prices, there is very little interest to sell forward positions. Business with Vietnam is for nearbys only as buyers willing to buy forwards from very few processors there.
Normally, forward trading should be at peak during this main harvest period but due to the high prices & uncertainty everybody wants to play it safe PLUS number of forward players is limited due to the overhang of recent problem
Until inventory levels and supply lines come back close to normal levels, it will be very difficult to know the real usage & demand trends. Increase in all costs and general increase in prices of all commodities will also have some impact on the Nuts sector - price as well as demand. This means that taking forward positions will continue to be difficult for both sellers and buyers
Guinea Bissau RCN prices have moved up but these levels cannot be supported unless kernel prices move up as well. If kernel market softens or demand slows down, traders will find it difficult to realise the high prices being negotiated now. Despite a good crop, shipments from IVC continue to be slow and there are reports that yields of goods now arriving in Abidjan are quite low
We continue to feel that short & medium trend will remain firm and this could well spillover into early 2009 (the last time prices crossed 3.00 – in 1999 - they remained around that level for about seven months from May to Dec and started declining from Jan 2000 with the big decline happening only in 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2000)
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views / forecast of demand and market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew prices moved up a few cents this week due to lack of offers. Some business was done at the higher prices e.g. W240 around 3.25, W320 around 3.05 FOB, W450 around 2.85 FOB for shipments upto Oct.
From India, limited quantities are available for nearbys and due to the high RCN prices, there is very little interest to sell forward positions. Business with Vietnam is for nearbys only as buyers willing to buy forwards from very few processors there.
Normally, forward trading should be at peak during this main harvest period but due to the high prices & uncertainty everybody wants to play it safe PLUS number of forward players is limited due to the overhang of recent problem
Until inventory levels and supply lines come back close to normal levels, it will be very difficult to know the real usage & demand trends. Increase in all costs and general increase in prices of all commodities will also have some impact on the Nuts sector - price as well as demand. This means that taking forward positions will continue to be difficult for both sellers and buyers
Guinea Bissau RCN prices have moved up but these levels cannot be supported unless kernel prices move up as well. If kernel market softens or demand slows down, traders will find it difficult to realise the high prices being negotiated now. Despite a good crop, shipments from IVC continue to be slow and there are reports that yields of goods now arriving in Abidjan are quite low
We continue to feel that short & medium trend will remain firm and this could well spillover into early 2009 (the last time prices crossed 3.00 – in 1999 - they remained around that level for about seven months from May to Dec and started declining from Jan 2000 with the big decline happening only in 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2000)
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views / forecast of demand and market trend and any other info / news
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, May 05, 2008
Weekly cashews update
May 3, 2008
Cashew market is steady – with a slightly firm undertone for nearbys but not much activity for forwards. No change in prices in the last two weeks - business was done for W240 around 3.20, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some business was done few cents higher as well)
RCN prices from West Africa are also steady but very little new business has been done in last couple of weeks. Brazil has entered the RCN import market after a long gap (their previous import was in 1998/99). Shipments are picking up and after reasonable quantity of old purchases have been shipped, new business will be done. There is still a lot of seed available but there are delays in arrival in India & Vietnam plus some holding back for higher prices. Unless kernel prices pick up for forward positions, processors will be reluctant to pay high prices as there is very limited demand for later positions at the moment
Due to the uncertainty of when – and how much cashews – will be shipped from Vietnam, it seems that kernel market is likely to be more of a spot market for quite some time. This is going to make things difficult for people who want to take forward positions – they will be reluctant to take on any big commitments as they are already caught on the wrong foot and cannot afford to aggravate an already difficult situation
Usage in first quarter has been good in most markets – despite some retail level price increases in some markets. Usage in second quarter must be watched closely to get an idea of extent of buying cashews still to be done for 2008 deliveries and to get some idea of how demand will develop in late 2008 / early 2009
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Cashew market is steady – with a slightly firm undertone for nearbys but not much activity for forwards. No change in prices in the last two weeks - business was done for W240 around 3.20, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB (some business was done few cents higher as well)
RCN prices from West Africa are also steady but very little new business has been done in last couple of weeks. Brazil has entered the RCN import market after a long gap (their previous import was in 1998/99). Shipments are picking up and after reasonable quantity of old purchases have been shipped, new business will be done. There is still a lot of seed available but there are delays in arrival in India & Vietnam plus some holding back for higher prices. Unless kernel prices pick up for forward positions, processors will be reluctant to pay high prices as there is very limited demand for later positions at the moment
Due to the uncertainty of when – and how much cashews – will be shipped from Vietnam, it seems that kernel market is likely to be more of a spot market for quite some time. This is going to make things difficult for people who want to take forward positions – they will be reluctant to take on any big commitments as they are already caught on the wrong foot and cannot afford to aggravate an already difficult situation
Usage in first quarter has been good in most markets – despite some retail level price increases in some markets. Usage in second quarter must be watched closely to get an idea of extent of buying cashews still to be done for 2008 deliveries and to get some idea of how demand will develop in late 2008 / early 2009
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Monday, March 17, 2008
Weekly cashews update
Mar 15, 2008
Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby
RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price
Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season
Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
Indian Cashews market was steady this week with a firm undertone. Business was reported for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.60, FB/FS around 2.30 FOB for shipments upto June. Domestic market is quiet. Vietnam continues to be quiet and Brazil is selling some quantities for nearby
RCN prices were steady in India and slightly easier in Vietnam but there was not much buying by large processors. Most of them prefer to wait and see how things develop on kernel demand and RCN price in next few weeks before making any big purchases. There is some concern about size and quality of Vietnam crop but things are not clear. In West Africa, things seem to be okay and trend of pricing from IVC – the largest supplier – should be known in 3-4 weeks. When there is full flow, processors will not buy unless they are able to make forward kernel sales at workable price
Continuing delays in kernel shipments is keeping the pipeline tight. Traders are forced to buy every couple of weeks to keep the flow going. This is keeping the market firm. Processors and buyers are not able to take any big forward positions at current prices due to uncertainty of RCN pricing and kernel demand. Buyers do not want to cover now and find that demand is softer in second half. Processors do not want to sell now and find that RCN prices remain firm throughout the season
Although some people say retail offtake in some markets has been slow for last 2-3 months, impact has not been felt – probably due to tight pipeline. Since there is no reliable data, it is not clear whether slowdown is limited to some areas & some products or is in all major consuming markets & for all nut categories. If there is a definite slowdown in next 2 months, it could have significant impact in second half when supply situation should be easier.
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, your views on supply/demand/price trends and any other news or info
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Mumbai - India
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