Wednesday, December 03, 2014

Post Thanksgiving

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

I hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving and holiday weekend.

So the pattern continues, prices remain sideways and are at a good low level. Something to note, price on seed have gone up and we have been told that processors have brought around 80,000MT (about 40,000MT left) of Tanzanian seed, this says to me they are expecting some heavy bookings which haven’t materialized yet, it’s to be noted that China has a very late Lunar new year, and while they have started to buy, it has not be huge volume due to them having time to buy. Quality packers are trying to push out higher prices but no one is really biting, it is rather quiet on the buy side, with Europe having to deal with a very strong dollar. At these levels we would advise that you cover 25% of your needs and watch, if it’s the lowest then it’s a good price and if this is highest it’s not bad either. One word of caution, cashew nuts is still the best value tree nuts around, as the price the Almonds keep rising we will see a bigger retail move over, this is why splits and pieces are so firm on price because it’s become an alternative in mixes. So again we said last week, the market is soft and it’s a good time to book a bit and cover. Going forward we need to wary of China coming in heavy and prices moving up.

Very interesting market right now, the market in a way is finding itself and up till two weeks there was some nerves and a couple of smaller packers got the jitters and went out with lower offers but now they too have steadied the bows and have held steady  the big growers have stayed very firm most are not even offering. On a good note, rain has started to fall and they are expecting heavy storms, this should fill up the rivers which have been depleted of water, unfortunately this will have little to no impact at all on today’s crop or the soil, after 4 years of drought it’s going to need much more than a few days of rain, also early word on El Nino looks like it’s not going to hit the valleys and Modesto (will keep watch) We also await the upcoming shipment report but by the attitude of the growers and their reluctance to offer we think it’s going to be a good one. The Spanish farmers are taking advantage of these high prices as well and Europe while trying hard to resist have no choice but to cover. We advise to be hand to mouth in terms of buying and that’s probably the best way to trade at the moment.


We are being told some very interesting things but don’t jump into action just yet, while it’s a bumper crop some rumors are coming out that the quality isn’t great (lots of brown spots) and price is going to move up due to this. We will keep an eye on it.  

-H. Stimler