Market Update From Pinny

Hi everyone!

It’s been very long time since I’ve been able to write report of this kind! It’s basically all about prices that have dropped or chanced that they will drop! Now who doesn’t like that?!?!

So we’ll cut it short and get started with cashews! I don’t think anyone saw these coming this low but it’s definitely exciting. RCN prices have finally starting dropping. To top it off demand hasn’t been that great over the past few weeks and shippers that booked RCN at higher levels had to start paying their bank loans back. I don’t have to tell you that without cash you can’t really pay bills…. So shippers starting dropping their prices below cost and some of them even lost millions of dollars this year already!! (no worries, they earned much more throughout the past 3 years J).

Since this past Monday morning we have started seeing a lot of buying interest in the USA again! Buyers are liking these numbers and while some buyers (greedier ones) like to wait for the kill, smarter buyers are slowly but surely nibbling into this market. We’ve even committed to some second qtr 2019 contracts this week.

It is literally impossible to know if we’ve reached the real bottom, but you never know when we’ll see that quick turnaround, so it’s always better to play it safe. I recommend on booking partially (maybe 50%) as far out as you are ready to go.

Walnut growers are trying to dump whatever they have left of current crop but it seems that the price decrease is not doing its job well enough. Prices are way below they were 6 months ago and yet buyers do not seem excited to grab them.

Pecans have not softened significantly but they sure are more affordable compared to the past 9 months. If you need some for the upcoming holiday seasons still it may be a good idea to shop for them during this quiet and soft period.

Let’s not forget almonds! We finally had a shipment report that was lower than last years! The “freeze” back in February also didn’t materialize and the crop size this year should be decent. Prices didn’t tumble but we are seeing a softer market with some growers ready sell new crop approx 20 cents below today’s market. At this point I will hold back from making any predictions- it’s a pure gamble with these great almond marketing geniuses out there!

Brazil nuts are also selling very well again. We are seeing a lot of business getting done at the $5.00 level for June-July and in the low $4’s for August thru February. Demand is strong.

I can’t afford finishing up this short report with exciting news only so let’s throw some dried cranberries into this mix… unfortunately availability is becoming tighter by the day. Processors are scrambling to fulfill their orders and are all delaying shipment significantly. I am seeing prices inching closer to the 2 dollar level and maybe even higher. We are even seeing the possibility of these prices remaining high well into 2019. Time will tell…

Please let us know if you have any demand and we’ll try accommodating to our best ability. If don’t really need anything right now and just want to call in to say hi or discuss the markets that’s fine too!

Talk soon!

Market Update from Jack

Subject: Market report

Your thoughts please.

Yeah… It’s been that long since our last market report that we may need to be re-introduced. My name is Jack, what’s yours? Well, it’s nice knowing you, or better yet nice doing business with you. We had a great turnout at the IFT in Vegas. It was great meeting some old and new faces.

I’m not sure anymore which is riskier… playing the Cashew market or sitting at the poker table till 4am. We all know RCN is expensive, which is the main factor for these high prices. Supply has shortened as well with yields down approximately 10%. So why has the market softened lately? Well, lots of RCN has arrived to the Vietnamese ports lately and many smaller processors with less fluid are desperate for cash. The larger processors with deep pockets may need to follow suit soon, but haven’t as of yet, at least not as much. So, we’re done? Not at all! What about quality? In a market as such of course quality will be affected, and is of course a significant factor in this market. In summary, market can go either way… fierce war has been declared between these 2 infamous rivalries, supply and demand. We suggest booking some of your needs for the next few months and leave some open for the market to do with it as it pleases.

Alright, some good news. Almonds are at a very comfortable level. You really can’t go wrong. The predictions are that we are headed into a beautiful large crop. What amazes me is as follows: The 2017 objective report is predicting a 5% increase over last year’s 2.14 billion lbs crop. Yet, almond growers will still find reason to hike their prices. They should keep the prices stable and sell out this huge crop. You can’t go wrong booking your needs for next 6 months or even most of the season.

We are seeing some more Walnut offers surfacing, mostly odds and ends, as everyone is clearing house in anticipation of the new crop right around the corner. They are predicting a pretty healthy crop and I don’t doubt they will sell out as they did this year. It would be smart to get a decent amount of your needs on the books.

After Brazil Nuts more than doubled in price back in March, they showed some signs of weakening recently, but I have a feeling it will be short lived. We need to make peace with it while taking advantage of any interesting deals out there.

Pumpkin Seeds has regained its dignity with an increase of about $0.20/lb over the last 2 months mainly due to a 30% loss of acreage being reported.

Tropicals have historically remained consistent. We are seeing some slight increases on Ginger and Kiwi now. There also has been some talk for a while now about Papaya shortages. Turkish Apricots have eased up mainly due to the Turkish lira weakening against the USD. Coconut market is dry, with most offers available only end of year. California Golden Raisins should be back in plentiful supply real soon as new crop approaches.

Feel free to reach out with any questions, inquiries or just to chat. We love hearing from you.

Best regards,

Jack Weiser

5110 12^th Ave.

Brooklyn, NY 11219

T: 718-256-1000 Ext. 17

Good afternoon

Hope all is well. 

Not too much to report this week so let’s summarize in a few short sentences.

Cashews:

Many buyers have made peace with the new situation and are booking product at these crazy levels while others are still holding off and claiming that these prices are not justified and do not reflect real market price. We have seen a slowdown in trading throughout he USA and Europe but I wouldn’t call it quiet at all. It’s very hard to tell if we’ll see the market come down in the close future. All I can say is that if trading will stay on the slow side- it’ll force the processors to lower pricing a little but not by much. Do keep in mind that domestic inventories are tight or better if we say almost depleted!  and I think it’ll still take a while for this to change, so even if we see this market starting to come down soon it’ll take a while till we’ll start feeling it here.  Time will tell…. 

Pecans:

While we’re heading into the holiday season pecans are almost nowhere to be found anymore… most processors are fully sold out until new crop. Prices have spiked once again and will very likely stay up there throughout the year. If you still need any additional coverage for 2016 I’d recommend on buying ASAP. 

Almonds:

Buyers seem to be comfortable with the current levels and are buying as needed. Europe was active over the past 2 weeks with some light activity from the USA as well. New crop tends to be trading at about 5-10 cents below current crop with most buyers predicting the crop to be larger than estimated. We are not foreseeing any major changes at this point.

Raisins:

California has an excellent crop this year and prices are competitive right now. We are also hoping that the imported raisins will come in just as competitive. Booking some might be a smart move- with very little risk. 

Cranberries:

No major changes to report on this crop however we have some good position available that we can offer at very competitive levels. Feel free to call for any inquiries. 

Pineapple & Mango:

Tropicals like papaya & ginger should be plenty available with stable prices. Pineapple & Mango have become very tight with not much product available to ship from origin until new crop. We expect this to have a strong effect on pricing and it’ll probably not be before Nov-Dec that we’ll see prices soften up again.

We look forward to answering any questions you may have and hope to be able to quote you some business very soon. 

Thanks,

Pinny

Market Report 2/9/16

Not too much to report since last time, but here goes.

Cashews

Nothing much has changed in the last few weeks. Very little offers since most of the Vietnam packers are shut for the Tet Holidays. India adjusted their prices as well but they are still higher the Vietnam since they have a thriving domestic market with little pressure to export. Very little 240’s out there and any being offered will be end of crop and not of the highest quality. We will have new crop next month for shelling so around 2 months till we start seeing shipments. Should be a good decent crop, we advise to book some your 2^nd3^rd QTR needs. Unlike Almonds this commodity has held firm “since it was never too expensive to start”.

Almonds

We are heading into the bloom season, we have had good rain, snow packs. Even with the mantra of El-Nino effects yields we have to take in all the new acreage added, we can expect a huge crop. If you need brown skin because of the pasteurization pipeline, there is a 6 week wait time. So if you need product asap please give us a heads up.

Pecans

Market is very strong, but this could be the ceiling, it’s a strange one, with all other nuts dropping pecans is holding strong at these high prices. China is buying as is Europe even at these high prices.

Pistachios

Very few offers but very little merchandise being offered out there.

Walnuts

This may be the floor, there have been a glut of buying from overseas, saying that we are anticipating a huge crop.

Brazil nuts

With new crop around the corner we have seen the market ease a little bit, so far not much is being offered out from origin, especially not from the better packers, we feel that once the small packers are depleted prices should stabilize. We have lowered our pricing and are offering good deals for both spot as well as forward contracting.

I hope you all had a wonderful holiday and a happy new year.

We look forward to a great 2016 and strengthening our business relationships with you.

Please find a quick market overview.

Cashews.

Unlike a lot of other commodities the Cashew market has been pretty stable in terms of pricing, there have been small adjustments here and there but no epic spikes or dips like Almonds and Pecans. We believe this will continue, only thing we anticipate is a good early crop out of Vietnam, so new crop should come in early March. We are seeing good quotes for 2^nd and 3^rd QTR a few cents cheaper from good packers. We advise you cover at least thru 2^nd  QTR and maybe even some of your 3^rd qtr needs not to run into any surprises that might come up….

Almonds.

Shipment report is out and shipments are down again! commitments are also down, while crop receipts are set to be high and the weather has been finally kind, with rainfall and snow packs forming. G-D has decided after years of favoring the farmers to look kindly now on the buyers, we advise to buy SPOT only and we look forward quoting you on all your needs!

Pecans.

Short crop, damage and disaster has contributed to these high prices along with buying from China (they are only buying pecans). Small pecan growers have been swallowed up by large national companies in desperation to get hold of product. Keep in mind before the crop damage this was meant to be an ON year, so the next year will be an OFF year which will only contribute to keeping pricing high and going higher. It seems like most growers will be chopping up halves to fill their pieces needs and in shell is also trading at record numbers. We expect to see prices stay sky high all the way thru the crop year.

Pistachios.

Not seeing any deals out there when at this time of year you normally do, few packers are even offering. Market is high and seems very stable.

Walnuts.

Market is soft, product is cheap, packers say this is the floor and point to record shipments, while we counter “huge new anticipated crop expected”.

Pine Nuts

Pricing has gone slightly down due to the currency exchange with a super strong dollar against the Chinese currency.

Bentzy Klein 

Dear Valued Customer,

Please find below our market report, it has been a whirlwind few weeks with commodity prices coming down aggressively.

Cashews.

Market is very quiet, prices are holding firm, probably because China (say it in a Donald trump voice) is picking up the slack. We are being told the Vietnam kernel crop is expected earlier which we be good for pricing, but that wont effect till the 2^nd QTR, we strong advice to book to cover 1^st QTR, if you don’t, you run the risk of not having product to cover.

Almonds.

Big growers are saying prices will rebound, not to the $5 dollar range but will go up, that’s what they are saying, currently the market is stagnated, there is rain, snow packs have formed and it’s a good crop, along with very little buyers confidence and a lot of mistrust, unless the growers invent a new use for almonds we don’t see pricing rebounding higher, we are super aggressively priced on Almonds and you should take advantage.

Pecans.

Contrary to everything else Pecans have rebounded and looks to only continue its meteoric rise. China is back in the market, along with next year being an off year so farmers are storing a lot for the carry over, even though this was meant to be the ON year because of crop damage its not been amazing, we are priced accordingly.

Finally, at this juncture we at Atlantix would like to wish you and your loved ones a very happy holidays and a happy and joyous new year, we truly appreciate our business relationship and look forward to only growing stronger together with you in the coming years.

Summer!

Suffice to say its summer, and it feels like summer and the market still appears to be in holiday mood. Neither buyers nor sellers are doing too much at the moment. Most important development to look out for is China, and the last move by the government to devalue the currency to stem the import market and keep their currency in house. Now how that will affect the market is one to definitely watch out for.

Cashew Market

We have started to see more activity by US buyers in the last few days. In spite of the relative quietness, prices are staying put and showing little sign of weakness especially from the better packers out there. Now why is this so? well, the overriding factor I think is that “cashews is still the best value nut” and Raw seed prices remaining very firm, and since RCN crop is nearly done and is getting bought by packers in Vietnam and domestic market processors in India they have no need to lower pricing.

So in a nutshell (get it) we feel due to these two factors that prices will not come down over the next 6 months and if anything could well firm up in September when buyers return to the market for Pre-Christmas stock and tenders and Europe comes back from holiday with heavy bookings, basically everyone gets of the beach and decides to start working again.

Almond Market

The almond market has been very quiet, no real heavy bookings and most growers loath to even offer far out. This one is a real head scratcher. For 10 years the Almond Board has done a wonderful job, the first five years was spent expounding the amazing health benefits of the Almond, and then expounding on the terrible drought for the last five, I wonder what tack they will take on now. Prices are at a record high along with it being the driest months in history in California.

The fact that despite the lack of sizeable trade for almost 2 months prices have only lost 1 to max 2% of their highest levels ever achieved, it shows how resilient the suppliers are and how much they like being rich.

Sellers are waiting to see the result of shelling the receipts from the harvest. The first results reported are disappointing, which is normal (the first orchards to be shaken are the most stressed and these are non pareils). Will China come in heavy again? With the high price, and the low bang for their buck (yen) along with rumours of a monster El Nino abound as well all make this an interesting one to watch.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

We feel there is a distinct lack of buyers confidence right now. Supermarket sales on straight almond snacks have dropped by 15%-20% saying that, the slack has been picked up by the almond flour and almond butter business. Could this year be the breaking point? So many different deciding factors here it’s a very tough one to call.

For now short term though we don’t think one will see any price decrease, and maybe its wishful thinking that even later in the year we will, but here’s hoping.

Pecan Market

Again we know it’s going to be an excellent crop in most regions, question is what does China do this year, last year they were buyer, broker and trader, will they act in a more restrained manner and only buy what they need for new crop? It remains to be seen, most of the crop is gone and new crop will be post the holidays, expect pricing to drop then but not till then.

Brazil Nuts

The floods earlier in the year has meant the availability is short again but not as bad as the 2014 crop which was affected by the worst floods ever, and shippers won't have any carryover to last through until the new crop....This year, demand has remained constant and has kept prices firm but stable, we think with the lack of carryover and the short shipments no one would predict any decline in this market until new crop. 

Update

Suffice to say the market is very strange and I will explain why.

We have seen a price drop over the last few days and a reluctance of offers from top quality packers but offers from medium/small packers. We have also seen some good offers out of India which we haven’t seen for a while.

Let’s start with RCN (Raw Cashew Kernel) prices have spiked aggressively with worrying news of contract defaults and rejecting of poor shipments. The high price has the smaller and midsized packers “spooked” and in an effort to garner funds have been offering out product for cheaper/losses in order to garner interest and capital in an otherwise quiet time for purchasing to cover RCN costs.

                Vietnam processing has become significantly more sophisticated and reliant of machines (Insert Terminator joke here) which has created an increase in product quantity by around 15%. Better shelling means more complete cashews, less pieces but should drive the market even further down in price.

                Why the sudden offers from India? China which has been the traditional big buyer of India cashews has slowed down due to the Chinese Government clamping down hard on importers smuggling cashews across the border (Jackie Chan is slated to make this into a movie) without paying the duties and are holding up imports. So the factories that were reliant on business as normal are now being forced to look for other avenues to sell their product to.

So to summarize, high price of seed, high production in Vietnam, big trouble in China has all contributed to the market moving down. With the ease in pricing it would seem logical to come in and cover needs and if no big movement happens then it’s possible that pricing will drop a bit again. Even the pieces market has taken a little dip but nothing too exciting. We feel that June/July the market will/may reach the bottom and when the season starts again and demand from China in Aug/Sept will restart the price will rebound to offset the price of RCN. Remember all the packers will tell you, “Cashews are still the best priced nuts” and they are right.

Conclusion: Time to book out now.

Almonds: June 11^th is the actual report so will do a separate report when we have all the facts.

Pecans: Trading high, demand has slowed but most of the crop is sold and come the season it should only climb more.

Pistachio: A few weeks I reported on problems with China with US pistachios and it seems it’s also that same border issue, We are being told by the growers that it’s not been a good crop and that in the short term could cause a spike in pricing, but in the long term the growers must be worried that once the deal is signed with Iran and the sanctions lifted they are going to have real competition with Iranian pistachios and that could be a cause of a real price drop which must get them nervous (though not as nervous as Israel I would assume) 

Market Update

Please find enclosed this week’s market report 

Cashew’s

This week the packers waited in anticipation for buyers to come in heavy, while buyers played the waiting game hopping for a drop in pricing. In the end there was slight bump in prices due to some activity. While it wasn’t as heavy as expected pricing did hold and in some cases strengthened. The late crop is the most important factor here when it comes to where the market will eventually go. When the market will be flush with product then we could see a decrease but that is still a way away. We strongly advise to book QTR needs.

Pieces as per all my previous reports is trading very high and since we still don’t know how much of the crop will end up in pieces, we don’t anticipate this going down. We are experiencing delays in shipments on these grades.

Almonds

The subjective estimate was released today at 1.85 billion pounds, which was expected.  Current demand seems to be just as strong and the May shipment report numbers should back that up.  If the May shipment report is as high as April then price will strengthen in a big way, since the growers need a carryover till new crop, so they need a lull of shipment of 9%+ which is unlikely.

With the continued uncertainty of next year’s crop, growers will most likely look to sell their remaining supply of 2014 crop at these record prices or higher, however they will still be hesitant to sell any 2015 crop.

We continue to see reports regarding the drought and this is going to be the major factor in the future. If the weather remains dry and demand stays where it is now, we must expect prices to continue to move up.  If we get some rain and global demand is sluggish at these record high prices (which I don’t see), we could see the price come down.  This leaves buyers in a very risky situation as these scenarios will not fully play out at least until October just as first shipments of 2015 crop start arriving around the world.

Pecans

The Cold Storage numbers are most telling with very little crop left over, so expect this commodity to just keep climbing in price.

Brazil Nuts

There are very few offers coming out of Bolivia, still flooding in areas of the jungle, and due to this not a lot of seed coming out for the processors and most shippers have withdrawn offers, due to this we believe it would be prudent to book now while the price is here because we won’t know how much more inventory will eventually hit the market.

Updates!

Cashews

Obviously new crop is in, the Tet holiday is winding down and shipments will start to flow, but currently most importers are short on product, anticipating a price reduction to the market most have waited and hence find themselves in this predicament. We strongly advise that you book 1^st QTR needs, we don’t think prices will start to move down till April sometime and that means shipments arriving in May, also something to be aware of, with the trouble on the West Coast ports, more and more shipments are being diverted to the East Coast and that could also be a factor in delaying arrival. We also don’t think we will see a price drop in the pieces market due to the advancement of cracking machinery reducing the amount of breakage to 15% down from almost 33%.

Almonds

Even though we hear about damage to the trees due to the 5^th year of the drought and the lack of El Nino again, we think the farmers know they have to tread a very careful line. Prices are at a record high and while domestic sales have been robust, sales to Europe have slowed, now this could still be the issues with the port or a more systemic problem. With that in mind the Almond farmers have been acting very responsibly and don’t want the pricing to keep going up because they feel the market is comfortable at this level. We also await the bloom report and this month shipment report, post that we could see this market go either way and a bad subjective report would spike prices even beyond the control of the farmers.

Pecans

This commodity has had an all-time record high movement in pricing and all we said from our past reports have come to be, now we are seeing a quieter time for pecans, not a lull per say but pecans meteoric price increase has slowed, saying that if China now post its new year’s comes in heavy again then the price is likely to continue to spike higher. Also to be remembered, it hasn’t been a very large crop. 

Nuts!

We have seen much the same as was reported last week, but some specific things to note.

Cashews

Tanzanian Seed is completely sold out and most packers are awaiting RCN from the Ivory Coast but there has been delays with early shipments. India is not eager to sell since the domestic market is robust and they are getting better offers which means they do not need to ship oversees. Prime Minister Modi has now been in power for 60 days and the changes have been remarkable to say the least. The fixed wages bill is part of Modi intense effort to create a viable strong middle class and it seems to working, India in a huge market and must start to be viewed in the same light as China when it comes to its domestic buying power.

Vietnam is much of the same with limited offers from quality packers, all the small packers are still of the market but the demand is starting to pick up and prices have strengthened again this week. In terms of its own Vietnamese crop this will only become available in March after the Tet holidays, so unlikely we will see an abundance of product till them, in light of that, the price we are seeing is likely to hold or go higher in the short term, where it goes when new crop comes remains to be seen, it’s 50/50 either way, but highly unlikely we will see any drastic drop. We are advising our clients again this week to book 2^nd QTR needs, it is wise to cover needs because the risk of a dramatic price drop is low as is a dramatic price increase.

Almonds

The bloom report is a few weeks away with weather once again playing a huge factor. Jan had record high temperatures but weather reports indicate some wet weather ahead which is so desperately needed. Also the addition of recent snow packs will help with the reservoirs. In terms of the political rulings, the supreme court threw out the case to overturn the ruling in terms of the Delta Smelt Fish which would have benefited almond growers, of course they are going to try again and will keep you posted.  

In terms of the next shipment report, we are being told there is now a renewed demand from Europe even with the weak euro and they have come back to the market to purchase against contracts. They have seen a silver lining, that even with a declining euro they need to bring in product and while mostly they brought in Standard 5 due to the growing US almond butter business they are getting there contracts of Standard substituted with NPS.

The continued strong US currency is a bit of a problem but put that against the huge growth of imports to India (+66%) it’s not going to make any real dent in pricing and we will continue to see these high prices for quiet sometime. The bloom report will be a critical factor going forward.

Pecans

We continue to see a price move up on Halves due to past Chinese buying. We don’t believe the pieces market to move much higher though. 

New Year!

It’s been an eventful week with some significant changes. Most important thing to note right from the onset is the high dollar which is becoming a factor, not huge yet but if the dollar continues to further strengthen against the Euro, Canadian $ and other currencies it could start to really effect oversees trade. In terms of where the dollar can go, it all depend on if the fed will raise interest rates (which they don’t seem to want to do) but till then we are seeing a slight slowdown in exports to Europe and other parts of the world.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Almonds

In light of that, I would like to address the Almond market first. The December shipment is most telling. Had the export numbers been down by -20% plus then it would have been something, but the drop of -11% means that prices will stay at these high level for quite a while with a possible further upward trend. We are already paying the price for next year drought and based on little to no rainfall so far in Jan and the wet month of December being negated by the warm weather which meant no snow packs were formed. In terms of the Dec shipment report most glaring is the drop in exports to Europe (again due to a weak Euro) but the slack has been picked up by massive buying by India and China (ultimately Europe is going to need to cover its contracts and will move quicker now seeing the $ vs EURO movement).

This has not effected exports to China who’s currency shadows the US dollar and India which has really stabilized the rupee. While India massive consumption remains a mystery, in terms for the packers back home they know they need to stem the exports because they will little to no carryover at this rate. The one way to do this is by raising prices. This is not a traders market, rather it’s an opportunist dream, pick up a deal here and there and sell it on. The drought seems to be stretching into its 5^th years and anything less than 2 Billion plus bloom report will not bode well for ongoing pricing. While these high prices is having an effect on end consumer purchasing, it is being offset against by exports and the need to slow down sales for next year’s carry over.

Cashews

Pricing has edged up over the last couple of days, even though the market continues to be very quiet. India has slowed it production, this is due to a government fixed wage increase for workers, this has caused many factories to close down and other factories are simply not producing because of the high price of RCN out of Africa.  

In terms of Vietnam, new crop is due late February but because of the Tet holidays that month, we will not see any shipments going out in till March with most factories being closed. There is a classic disconnect here between Packers not chasing this market and buyers not purchasing at these levels. Ultimately demand will have to kick in and buying will happen. With the beginning of new crop the price could go up, so short term it’s wise to purchase now for 2^nd QTR needs, long term it’s harder to see where this market is going.

Cashew Pieces are still really the only grade moving with these high prices due to lack of product vs demand.

Pecans

As we said last week, even with the massive crop, the demand from China is immense we are seeing some huge volumes being shipped of JR Mammoth Halves, on that product the growers are nearly out, so demand will shift to large halves & pieces which will cause a further price increase. This is simply a demand factor with a trickle down effecting other sizes. We expect to see this commodity continue to go up in price.

Walnuts

While we have been saying for a while that pricing is dropping, we are seeing a price disparity between Light and combo varieties, the availability for LHP is lower than combo, so expect combo prices to continue to drop while LHP with less of an aggressive price drop

Pine Nuts

The price on Pine Nuts continue climbing on a daily basis, it’s hard to tell if this is due to the upcoming Chinese New Year or if this just this just the real market price vs demand, time will tell…. 

Post Thanksgiving

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

I hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving and holiday weekend.

Cashews
So the pattern continues, prices remain sideways and are at a good low level. Something to note, price on seed have gone up and we have been told that processors have brought around 80,000MT (about 40,000MT left) of Tanzanian seed, this says to me they are expecting some heavy bookings which haven’t materialized yet, it’s to be noted that China has a very late Lunar new year, and while they have started to buy, it has not be huge volume due to them having time to buy. Quality packers are trying to push out higher prices but no one is really biting, it is rather quiet on the buy side, with Europe having to deal with a very strong dollar. At these levels we would advise that you cover 25% of your needs and watch, if it’s the lowest then it’s a good price and if this is highest it’s not bad either. One word of caution, cashew nuts is still the best value tree nuts around, as the price the Almonds keep rising we will see a bigger retail move over, this is why splits and pieces are so firm on price because it’s become an alternative in mixes. So again we said last week, the market is soft and it’s a good time to book a bit and cover. Going forward we need to wary of China coming in heavy and prices moving up.

Almonds

Very interesting market right now, the market in a way is finding itself and up till two weeks there was some nerves and a couple of smaller packers got the jitters and went out with lower offers but now they too have steadied the bows and have held steady  the big growers have stayed very firm most are not even offering. On a good note, rain has started to fall and they are expecting heavy storms, this should fill up the rivers which have been depleted of water, unfortunately this will have little to no impact at all on today’s crop or the soil, after 4 years of drought it’s going to need much more than a few days of rain, also early word on El Nino looks like it’s not going to hit the valleys and Modesto (will keep watch) We also await the upcoming shipment report but by the attitude of the growers and their reluctance to offer we think it’s going to be a good one. The Spanish farmers are taking advantage of these high prices as well and Europe while trying hard to resist have no choice but to cover. We advise to be hand to mouth in terms of buying and that’s probably the best way to trade at the moment.

Pecans

We are being told some very interesting things but don’t jump into action just yet, while it’s a bumper crop some rumors are coming out that the quality isn’t great (lots of brown spots) and price is going to move up due to this. We will keep an eye on it.  

-H. Stimler

Vietnam

Cashew Market.

As we said last week the market has softened and levels are very low. We feel that this is the floor and won’t go any lower, the price of Tanzanian RCN, is trading for $1,400 per metric ton and there isn’t  a lot of seed on the market so price could probably go higher. The other seed won’t be available till 1^st QTR which means earliest around March. Most factories are not producing at all and those that are, are producing small quantities since they don’t want to sell at these low prices.

Traditionally when pricing hits this low level interest goes up and the price moves up along with that interest. We strongly advise to book both SPOT and 1^st QTR needs now. Our pricing reflects these low levels and we have also come down on roasted products by $0.10. Please inquire for forward contracting pricing.

Almond Market

As per our extensive Almond report last week, we have seen some cheaper offers from small packers & traders, and have adjusted accordingly. Large packers haven’t budged on pricing and are still holding firm and the domestic market demand is very high. El Nino predictions have be upped and California got some rain last week but nothing significant at all. Although rain will affect the short term market it will only really make a proper impact 2 years down the line due to the tree damage.

Small snippet of info, we have in terms of the European market which comes from the trading desk at Barrow Lane and Ballard is that many traders have large contracts and went short, now that Spain is out they will have to start buying US product and that could impact pricing and push it higher, it’s something we will keep an eye on.

Walnuts.

The pipeline has still not burst and that is why the pricing which we think should come down is still holding strong.

Pistachio.

Market is somewhat sideways. The very large Iranian crop means very little buying from China and the strong harvest of 526 million means that price could fall. We will have a better idea when grading is done.

Please find enclosed pictures of our CEO’s recent trip to Vietnam.

Almond Shipment Report

We didn’t send out a report yesterday due to the Almond shipment report. After strong and in depth analysis we have some strong conclusions.

October shipments were released yesterday and the results are a gaggle of different signals:

-          Shipments were “only” 11% off last year’s record breaking numbers (204 million vs 228)

-          Commitments were “only” 13% below last year’s (458 vs 528)

-          Crop receipts 1.516 billion vs 1.385 last year (but harvest started earlier)

-          USA market up 8%, western Europe +2% (UK -9%, Germany +21%, Spain -18%, Italy +2%, Holland +42%, France -2%), China -44%, India +16%, Japan -26%, S Korea -14%, Turkey -20%, UAE -23%

Most Important

-          New sales for the month 276 million – This is the strongest sales month on record despite the historically highest prices ever.

Some important things to take note of. The Spanish Almond price drop is not related nor will it affect US crop pricing. Why did Spanish Almonds price drop?,  simply the European farmers are not “fat cats” and want to move product at this time. The crop has been OK and they are not in the same financial position as the California growers. They are not looking to increase yields to the same rate, rather happy with the current pricing and the desire to shift product and bring in some much needed cash. (typical Euros)

China has dropped significantly. Granted, but look at what has happened in India. Prime Minister Modi is intent on creating a new middle class, he has removed the red tape for importers (which was formally controlled by a few prominent families) this has led to a huge increase of almond imports 66%. Well either they have flooded the market or very cleverly have imported mostly unshelled almonds to forward sell, they can shell cheaply in India and can ship easier into the Chinese market (less import taxes). Even with the fear that these “rookie” importers are flooding the market, it will  have no real impact or adverse effect since they can’t ship it back stateside anyway. (Try getting past the FDA)

In terms of rain. Hardly any rain fell in October and so far in November and hardly any in the forecasts.

El Nino (wet winter) probabilities revised down to 55% from 65%.

The 2014 crop is now expected to be in between 1.90 to 1.96 billion down from the objective estimate of 2.1 billion hence growers/packers expect shipments to be down 10% on average every month in order to have a feasible carry-over for next year. I also feel that the growers have now given up hope of rain and are comfortable at these prices even without it (covering the cost of bringing in water). They are not really expecting it, this is evident in the recent signing to bring “drip irrigation” to the great state of California.

We think that we can expect prices to remain unchanged till the end of the year at least. For January onwards we are in the hands of mother nature (= rain or lack thereof)

So in conclusion:  The drop of 10% is not something to cause concern or to expect a price drop. We would need to see everything in the favor of the buyers for any real price drop, a tremendous amount of rain and a bumper forward crop. Neither of these seem on the horizon but am not GD (even if my mother disagrees :-) so impossible to predict the future but that’s our gut and conclusion based on what the reports & market research indicates.

Saying that some unsophisticated traders could read the report wrong and panic sell so some cheaper pricing will be available and we are seeing offers like that, but not from the actual large growers. They have gone out high and the domestic market have just accepted it and more, as evident by the 8% increase and the record breaking sales month. The demand for Almonds by the common man is strong (well done Almond Board)

I hope this is helpful, we shall be sending out a new price list tomorrow and can now offer the following Pistachios 18/20 R/S. 

Movements

Dear Gentlemen,

Some good movement on the market this last week in terms of Cashews and Almonds.

Cashews.

The cashew market has definitely softened caused by some significant factors. The price of Tanzanian seed has moved down and the left over seed has also come down which has pushed cashew prices down. China isn’t purchasing any 320/240 so price has fallen, while 450’s is still holding firm because that item is still being purchased by China.

This market can move easily either way. If China comes in with heavy buying for the Luna new year that will push the prices up, that could also be the reason why they are not purchasing now in anticipation of the cheaper prices and hoping it will drop more and then they will come in heavy, this more than any factor will determine the price going forward. We have also seen a softening in the LP price due to the drop in the price to 240’s and 320’s so this has pushed down the LP price.

We would advise to book SPOT, you need to cover your QTR needs in case of very heavy buying which looks most likely.

Almonds.

This month’s shipping report is very important to determining where this market is going, it’s been the third week since offers have been flowing, and the market is finally breathing. Based on the report we can get a better picture but most people in the market seem very convinced that pricing isn’t going to come down. The thought process is that the almond farmers have made good money for the past few years and combined with the lack of rainfall are in no massive rush to move product. Small factor in terms of rainfall, the state of California signed an agreement with the Israeli government to implement drip irrigation which would negate the problem of drought, this week take a few years to get done but it shows the mindset of the state, that they are not “hoping’ for rainfall they are going to prosper even without it.

Pecans.

Small movement on the pecan market, the price discrepancy between Halves and Pieces and Mammoth halves is getting smaller, they are looking to close that gap because there are not so many pieces on the market because of the sophistication with the shelling. While it’s a good crop the farmers are intent on holding high prices and are happy to store product in order to achieve that.

While the Mexican farmers need funds so will try and undercut pricing to move product. The difference in this product is the lack on conformity between Mexican pecan growers, Texans and Georgia so harder to tell what the farmers will do overall.

Walnuts.

We expected the price of walnuts to drop, it hasn’t yet due to the late crop and the pipeline issue, but its starting to move and there should be more availability in the next few weeks. We have taken a position on Walnuts LHP and combo Halves and pieces.

Pine Nuts.

We are offering great pricing on 650 ct

Update

The last few weeks have been stop and start for us due to the Jewish Holidays but it’s all done now and back to normal.

Some good changes, some bad, please find attached our reviewed price list and a brief market overview.

Cashews.

The market has softened in price, especially with product out of India. This nice drop in price is due to the slowdown of Indian export, according to the Indian CEPCI last year this time exports numbers were at 61,866, while this year its 55,471, when you have a 10% drop you know you have to do something and that’s exactly what has happened, this will of course have a knock on effect to Vietnam pricing which will have to adjust.

The lack of consumption by China which India didn’t take advantage of has left them in a position where they have to move product even while complaining about the high price of seed. It’s a good time to book, saying that the PIECES market is still strong and that due to the demand still being high with a short supply.

Almonds.

We have seen a tiny adjustment and offers are trickling out. Asia has been serviced with their requirements and now the focus will be squarely on the domestic market and growers are starting to ship. Rain is still a HUGE factor and while most growers live in fear of a continued drought, they do need to move inventory and can’t just do nothing as much they want to sit and stockpile. While I wouldn’t call this a market softening its more “we have wiggle room”. We are strongly advising to cover your QTR needs because if no rain should fall its highly likely that they will take themselves of the market again, but with a contract they will have to supply product no matter what.

Pecans.

Very interesting market, we are seeing cheaper offers for product from growers and we have adjusted our price accordingly. Some growers are offering cheaper in-shell product much the same as last year. Pecans must be seen as “the likeable but not needed for the party cousin in the nuts family” and while the Almonds farmers have confidence the Pecans guys don’t, hence the movement of price is more erratic and it can be a risky commodity to take large positions. The product is not as saturated or imbedded and pricing is not as stable. Now is the time to keep trading and moving in and out as per your needs. It would be risky to forward book at a price to far out because of this inherent mentality which we have seen in the past.

Pistachio.
Still no real offers, and hearing even less. Rumors of a large amount of blanks are still just rumors but the growers coming in and out TWICE would lend credence that it could very well be the case. Iran’s Pistachio is not going to be a factor. We feel this product is going to go up in price over the course of the year. 

Update

Last week was a short week with the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah, Happy New Year and I apologize for the lack of report and pricing. Even with the lack of the report there has been plenty of action and the lead up to the season has seen a flurry of business.

Cashews

The upward price continues to climb and we believe it will do so till January. Demand is very high and it’s looking like a bumper season in terms of demand. India and Vietnam besides for all the bad decisions they have made over the course of this year know that this is the time to strike and are taking advantage of this demand by asking high prices and getting it. We don’t see much changing and with the return of heavy buying from China price could stay but most likely to continue to rise. It’s not going down, even Jan forward contract are high but will that hold remains to be seen. LP is a freak of nature, price is still very yet demand hasn’t abated.  

Almonds

It’s been a mess of indecision, first growers offered then they pulled of the market and made us wait, made me feel like being at a high school prom all over again. Well it seems the wait may finally be over and now that they have finished the crop and know the numbers (which looks to be more at the 1,75BL number) they will reopen the books next week and we should be business as usual. Offers we are seeing right now are from traders that booked heavily last crop or sprang into action in the short window of offers and are riding the wave and making good money, in this case the risk was worth the reward. Next week will give us clarity and we should be able to offer out forward booking. Saying that don’t expect any huge price change, the drought continues to be a huge issue and very worrying.

Pistachios

Crop news isn’t great isn’t terrible, it’s been a decent crop with some amount of blanks, we know as well that there has been a very low carry over from last year’s crop. We have been pushed of week after week but we are told that next week finally pricing will be offered. Saying that one large grower did dip his toe into the water and offered out for one day at decent pricing then closed shop the day after. We feel that they are going to want to go out where last year’s crop left off and we thing think its going to fly as the market has been robust at the $5.20 - $5.40 level, saying that and we should see some decent pricing very soon and have proper knowledge.

Pecans

New crop is irrelevant as its going to miss the season and the growers know this but they also know that we know it’s been an excellent crop year. So current spot pricing is high and they are holding firm because they want to protect old crop pricing before announcing new crop price. The also want to keep the price high using a futile attempt that all other nuts has gone up in pricing why can’t Pecans be like Almonds (because all nuts are not created equal) , it’s not going to happen. For now we advise to buy what is needed spot and cover needs. (same thing we have said last three months)

Walnuts

Another good crop but as per last report very little offers due the pipeline, since there is virtually no old crop on the market the growers have to get export crop out before they can service domestic properly but we hope we are going to see a nice price reduction.

"Copy and Paste" week

c/o Henry Stimler

Compiling this week’s report could be as easy as copy and paste from last week’s report but being a consummate professional I will attempt to write pretty much the same thing as last time with a hope of coming of not too repetitive.

Saying that, it is very much the same. Prices have only continued to go up on certain items and the rest we do not have clarity to give any real updates. Here goes.

Cashews.

Prices continue to go up as we have seen for the last few weeks. The rise has been in $0.05 to $0.15 increments. This has to do with the high price of seed. Saying that we don’t feel this is going to turn into a runaway commodity. Till Jan pricing is expected to go up and then post that the price should settle down, much like last year. The cause for the price increase as per last week is that the Sheller’s can no longer mix cheap seed with current seed since all has been used. We should see post Jan the price of new seed come down which will bring pricing down.

Pieces Market is a completely different fish. As we have kept saying for weeks, now that the ability of the Sheller’s to get unbroken cashews means less and less pieces yet the demand for pieces is still very much there. So when you have an actual physical shortage expect prices to keep going up.

Almonds.

More of the same, as I said last week, the shipment report will not be a good indicator and even though it’s a tad lower than last year it didn’t make a spot of difference. Prices continue to be very high. The growers are beyond nervous, on the one hand with the reports of crop damage rumors of now upcoming needed rainfall for next year’s crop legitimize these high prices BUT on the other hand if the almond prices just continue to go up the blow back is going to be enormous, reminiscent of 20 years ago when Peanuts got to high and were replaced by Almonds (I was 16 at the time and it was traumatic). Large conglomerates will just abandon Almonds in its products and the damage would take years to rectify. Growers are sensitive to this and are trying to act in a responsible manner. This along with the tremendous volatility we are seeing makes it very hard to call but we can only speculate that post Jan we will see a price correction.

Pecans.

Prices are staying where they are. Market is high and dry, very little product floating around, the harvest will miss the season since its scheduled for November 15^th meaning no deliveries till December and the bottleneck pipeline will take time to filter down but as we said prior post Jan we shall see a good price correction.

Pistachios.

Not enough info a this current time.

Walnuts.

Same, waiting on the market to stabilize 

and the "season" begins

c/o Henry Stimler

1^st week of September has been one of furious action along with furious inaction. Let me explain.

Cashews.

As per last week’s report the market has strengthened across the board and we see it in all current offers on cashews. We have seen another jump by around 10 cents on a product that has consistently been going up over the weeks, we think this price will now stick for a while. There is a number of factors contributing to this price increase. First and foremost is the high price of RCN out of Africa. This high price has caused many Vietnam producers desperate to move product have been selling at a loss, this in turn meant the banks starting pulling credit. Packers now needed to be profitable hence the significantly price increase.

Packers have also slowed down with purchasing RCN to force a price correction. Currently due to these 2 opposing factor there isn't an abundance of stock on the market and since its already the season they know that the demand coming now isn't so high so they can afford this ploy.

We feel that this price is going to stay around for now, and it looks unlikely that we will return to the day of old any time soon, a good indicator is the forward contract pricing we are seeing for Jan and they are rather high.  

Almonds:

Last week was a  slew of depressing doom and gloom emails from farmers,  this week they have been tempered with some rays of light, such as the initial thoughts of 30% damage now seems to be around 15%, this is just on the Non parrel varieties we still awaiting for more accurate reports on the California variety.

Saying that growers are currently off the market completely. This month’s shipment report wont reflect the market due to the fact it’s still old contracts, the real indicator will be the October shipment report which will show us if there is market resistance to these crazy prices. That shipment report will be a better barometer in terms of customer demand. If the shipment report is high then it will show the growers that demand is still very strong which in turn will legitimize these outrageous prices, if not we should expect to see a slight correction which will think/hope will happen.

Pecans

We are hearing an abundance of rumors of a mammoth crop. Some packers are even predicting a new record and a bumper crop of 300 mill MT+ (combined US/Mexico). Based on this we should see a significant drop in pricing come Jan, and we just have to weather (get it) the storm for a bit longer and we shall see plenty of offers and plenty of movement after the holiday season. Caveat, till that comes about, current year crop can and looks like to continue to go up in the interim.  

One small thing to keep an eye on, though it’s unlikely, growers are saying that with the new process of shelling one is getting a complete nut and less and less pieces (which is good for the farmers) a situation similar to Cashews LP’s. We could see a lack of Pecan pieces and that could spike pricing in the long run.

Walnuts

The Walnut board meeting is today and we should know all we need to know hopefully by tomorrow and will update. Saying that we said last week that harvest looks good and price should take a larger drop from where it was trading as it has already dropped slightly.

Pistachios.

Rumors are of a smaller crop this year than previous, we have no real feel back to predict anything, will keep you all in the loop