It has been a long and hectic year, though I'm glad that 2013 is over and welcoming 2014...
Well, not so much. A lot of information from California, Brazil, Turkey, SE Asia isn't so great.
Please see below regarding market outlook for 2014.
Apricots
Turkish dried apricots account for almost 80+%
of the world’s market. Turkish apricots
have mild and sweet taste when compared to US or China, which offers a sharper,
more distinct taste. The apricot market
in Turkey remains stable for now. The
quality of 2012 crop had been leaning towards smaller sizes. Availability for Size #1 was very short. The current crop, 2013 harvest, shows
improvement on quality of larger fruit.
Size Jumbo and #1 is now in good supply and outlook for 2014 remains
stable. The harvest of Apricots in
Turkey is from July(early) to October, with shipments to US arriving by
November.
Prunes
- Majority of the prunes originate from US, Chile
and Argentina. Prunes, dried plums, are
currently in short supply, as there currently is a draught issue plaguing
California and western United States(It will be a recurring issue, as noted
below). The drier/packers in California
are now “off the market”. They’ve
cleared their excess inventory and are only holding inventory for contracted
quantities. The harvest of Prunes in
Argentina/Chile is in March and August/September for US crop.
Banana Chips
- Dried banana chips are imported into US from
Philippines. The current crop and supply
remains stable, after a sharp spike, due to weather related issues. The dried banana chips are available
throughout the year.
Cranberries
- Dried cranberries are produced in US, Canada and
Chile. The supply and crop from 2012
crop was good, with stable demand, driving the pricing lower during 2013. The 2014 market also seems very stable, with
no spikes and/or dips in the foreseeable future. The cranberries are harvested during
March/April for Chile and Sept/November for Northern Hemisphere.
Cashew
- There are a few players that are involved in the
Cashew market. Vietnam and India remains
top processors in the world, trailed by Brazil.
Ivory Coast(Africa) are leaders in RCN(Raw Cashew Nuts). Majority of imports to US originate from
Vietnam and India. The market has been
stable for the last 3+ months, with everyone (buyers and sellers) expecting the
pricing to rise. African crop remains to
be seen, though we are expecting a good quality crop. With the current market conditions, any news
that adversely affects the market will send market pricing higher.
Almonds
- And now, we run in to major issues… The US
almond crop(covering majority of world production) has hit record production
for the last 3 years… with supply still unable to meet the demand. The almond crop has seen increasing(spiking)
pricing levels for the last two years. The
almonds remains extremely high priced, compared to previous years. With the news of impending draught issues in
California has only acerbated the problem.
The size of the kernels remains a problem, with virtually no size larger
than 27/30 available. There may be
relief in sight for 2014 crop as subjective and objective crop estimates become
available in March and May. The harvest
is in July with August ship dates for new crop.
With delays and issues plaguing the industry, we’ve noticed that for the
last few years, the new crops have only shipped beginning in September.
Walnuts
- The US walnut is the current leader in
production, providing majority of the world.
Surprisingly, the walnut market has been quiet with no major market
movements post harvest. This may be due
to uproar over the almond crops. This
does not mean that market pricing is “reasonable” and supply is abundant. At current trading price, many packers and
traders feel that pricing may not be sustainable. While we do expect market pricing to ease off
a bit in the coming months, China and India are major factors to consider(more
on this below). The crop estimates are
available during Q2 and Q3, with harvest occurring from early August through
October and November for Chandler varieties.
Pecan
- The US pecan market is at a very high
level. US and Mexico are major
suppliers, with growing regions in Texas, Georgia and surrounding states. The current pecan market is about $1/lb over
last year’s opening market price for new crop.
Barring any issues (weather, pests, China…) we may see a gradual easing
of the market pricing as we move through 2014.
The pecan crop harvest is during Q3, ending in November(Just in time for
Thanksgiving/Christmas season!).
Pistachio
- Pistachio market has been on a roller coaster
for 2013 season. The pricing differential
throughout the year has been +/- $1.50/lb(or about 30%). Currently, the pistachio market is very high,
with limited offerings from majority of the packers. The quality of the crop seems to run towards
smaller sizing(21/25) and pricing remain firm in the foreseeable future. The pistachio harvest is generally done
during late Q3.
Please let me know what your thoughts are on the matter.
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