OCT 24, 2009 There is nothing new to report about the Cashew market. Prices are unchanged i.e. W240 around 2.90, W320 around 2.65, W450 around 2.40 FOB. Reasonbale business being done to various markets but there is no strong demand from any market. At the same there is no strong selling pressure from any origin. Market seems to have settled in a “comfortable” mode.
RCN market is quiet with no movement from Tanzania so far (although we are at the end of Oct). There are unconfirmed reports that shipments from Mozambique may start earlier than usual. Limited quantities of good quality RCN in India being traded at reasonable prices but there is fair amount of low quality RCN which has no takers. Due to the delayed Brazil crop, there is a wide variety of estimates and the continuing strength of the currency is another concern.
Although there is a steady flow of enquiries from small buyers for prompt shipment, we have not seen any big buying interest from large buyers. This means that they will be drawing down on inventories at the end of the year and depending on strength of physical offtake in the fourth quarter, they will need to buy small or big quantity for first quarter shipments.
There will be a reasonable quantity of RCN in the first quarter (esp because of the delay in Brazil crop) but that might be compensated by demand from all markets for first quarter shipments (as the volume of forward business has been much lower than normal). If the demand is steady, prices will remain in the current range with a possibility of slight softening to the lower in the second quarter. IF demand in first quarter is strong, prices will remain close to (or even cross) the high end of the current range and this will keep prices steady when we move into the big harvesting period of second and third quarters. A big decline in prices is possible only if demand in first half is weak COUPLED with good crops in Northern Hemisphere.
To sum up, unless something dramatic happens, we can expect range bound market for next few months with a small chance of big increase or big decline but with good chance of increased volatility within current range,
What do you think about the market situation ?? Would appreciate your views on demand trends, forecast of market movement, news from origins and any other news / info