Cashew market OCT 3, 2009
continued to be steady with a firm undertone.. There was a fair amount of business in W320 in 2.60-2.70 FOB range. Most of the sales were to USA & some to off markets. Europe was quiet. Other grades were also steady i.e. W240 between 2.85-2.90, W450 between 2.35-2.40 FOB - stray sales reported. Only a few processors in India & Vietnam have participated in recent activity. Most of the large processors in both origins are waiting to see how things develop. Brazil continues to be quiet due to crop delay & currency situation but we expect some activity from them in Oct/Nov.
RCN prices moved up a bit due to Vietnam buying of IVC in the 725-750 range plus possible delays in movement from Tanzania. Initial reports indicate that Govt may fix farmgate price equivalent to approx US$ 1000 which is about 10-12% higher than current kernel prices (depending on outturn). Official announcement is expected next week.
European enquiries for next year contracts began early and some contracts have been made. Some more contracts are expected to be finalised in coming weeks. Limited selling interest from origin, wide price range, currency fluctuation seem to be delaying decisions. Given the fact that current prices are lower & economic situation outlook is much better than last year, one would expect that roasters & retailers would take larger positions but the uncertainty of price (and currency) trend might result in only part volumes being contracted now.
Asian consumption growth is strong. Many other markets are also showing signs of growth in consumption but a proper trend will be known only after 2-3 quarters of growth. Some buyers are showing interest to cover forward requirements at current levels but processors do not seem to be inclined to sell unless they can get a premium.
If the current standoff due to wide difference in selling & buying ideas continues, we might enter 2010 with lower than normal volumes covered for forwards and this will increase volatility in the first quarter which will make things difficult for all stakeholders.
We expect market to move in a narrow range in the next few weeks with steady activity for nearbys around current levels and slightly higher levels for forwards (in case buyers decide to cover more volume for FH 2010).
Please advise your views on market + news of recent activity / offers + your forecast of demand & price trend + any other info / news
Pankaj N. Sampat