UPDATE TO THE TRADE
October 13, 2006
The USDA has announced their first estimate of the 2006 pecan crop at 201.4 million inshell pounds. The National Pecan Shellers Association estimated the crop back in September at 204 million inshell pounds while the Louisiana and Texas average estimates ranged from 171 to 181 million inshell pounds. Cold storage holdings for July and August were slightly higher than normal and we expect to see a carryout between 120 and 130 million inshell pounds at October 31, 2006. We utilize the October 31st cold storage number as the official carryout number as October is a very large shipping month yet very little new crop inshell will move during this month.
The general consensus from growers and accumulators is that the USDA estimate is close to accurate with a good quality crop on the trees. Harvest should begin in the Southestern states in a few weeks. Holiday demand for first new crop availability will be strong as gift packers and other retail users specify only new crop material. The western states will begin their harvest in late November.
We will continue to keep you informed as the crop begins to harvest and the next USDA estimate will be released in early December.