Monday, October 23, 2006

U.S. PEANUT CROP UPDATE – From National Agricultural Statistics Service as of October 15, USA peanut crop is rated as 5% Very Poor, 19% Poor, 39% Fair, 32% Good and 5% Excellent. Last year on this same date, the crop was rated 2% Very Poor, 8% Poor, 37% Fair, 46% Good and 7% Excellent. Crop is 36% harvested compared to 46% last year and 55% 5-yr average.

STATE
ITEM
Oct 15, 2006
PREV. WEEK
Oct 15, 2005
5-YEAR AVG.

GEORGIA
Peanuts Dug
53%
38%
69%
78%

Peanuts Combined
40%
26%
52%
61%

Conditions
9% VP, 21% Pr
37% Fair
28% Good
5% Excellent

Soil Moisture (State)
31%Very Short
44% Short
25% Adequate
0% Surplus

Continued dry weather has been detrimental to late planted peanuts, including irrigated fields. Peg strength has been weak as a result of summer heat and drought. Yields and grades have been low. Lack of soil moisture has made digging difficult in some fields.

ALABAMA
Peanuts Dug
36%
21%
70%
78%

Peanuts Combined
25%
12%
47%
65%

Conditions
7% VP, 34% Pr
37% Fair
20% Good
2% Excellent

Soil Moisture
31% Very Short
47% Short
22% Adequate
0% Surplus

Peanut harvest continued at a rapid pace during the past week. Cool dry weather is not helping late peanuts finish maturing. Hard, dry ground is making digging difficult.

FLORIDA
Peanuts Harvested
42%
29%
65%
76%

Conditions
0%VP, 36% Poor
35% Fair
28% Good
1% Excellent

Soil Moisture
35% Very Short
45% Short
20% Adequate
0% Surplus

Another week of dry weather has not helped harvest. Peanut fields continue to suffer in the Panhandle and northern Peninsula areas. Without rain, late-planted peanut crop will not mature. Hardened soils make digging difficult with some peanuts losing pods in some Panhandle areas.

MISSISSIPPI
Peanuts Harvested
60%
42%
-
-

Conditions
0% VP, 2% P
28% Fair
59% Good
11% Excellent

Soil Moisture
26% Very Short
42% Short
32% Adequate
0% Surplus

No rain and good weather conditions allowed for harvesting all week.

N. CAROLINA
Conditions
1% VP, 1% Poor
21% Fair
71% Good
6% Excellent

Harvested
45%
23%
43%
51%

Soil Moisture
2% Very Short
18% Short
75% Adequate
5% Surplus

Below average temperatures for the week while peanut harvesting continued.

S. CAROLINA
Conditions
1% VP, 2% Poor
35% Fair
58% Good
4% Excellent

Harvested
44%
34%
49%
54%

Soil Moisture
4% Very Short
32% Short
61% Adequate
3% Surplus

No report available.

VIRGINIA
Conditions
0% VP, 13% Poor
34% Fair
43% Good
10% Excellent

Peanuts Combined
39%
35%
47%
46%

Soil Moisture
3% Very Short
9% Short
75% Adequate
13% Surplus

No report available.

OKLAHOMA
Conditions
3%VP, 9% Poor
36% Fair
45% Good
7% Excellent

Mature
83%
74%
90%
89%

Peanuts Dug/Combined
32% / 14%
12% / 3%
42% / 26%
43% / 27%

Top Soil Moisture
40% Very Short
32% Short
25% Adequate
3% Surplus

Recent rain was beneficial to producers but too late to make a difference for some crops. Peanuts dug and harvested jumped ahead this week although still behind normal.

TEXAS
Conditions
1%VP, 5% Poor
49% Fair
33% Good
12% Excellent

Harvested
27%
16%
20%
22%

Soil Moisture (WT)
17% Very Short
26% Short
48% Adequate
9% Surplus

Despite rainy conditions in the Southern High Plains, some producers dug and threshed peanuts. Growers also dug peanuts in South Texas. Peanut condition statewide was mostly good to fair.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

India: cashew exports decline during H1 this fiscal

Cashew exports have declined during the first half of this fiscal, though during September alone there were considerable increase. Given the trend which was expected to sustain, exports during the remaining months should help in making the goods decrease, according to Cashew Export Promotion Council chairman Walter D’Souza who has been re-elected for another term. At the annual general meeting (AGM) of Cashew Export Promotion Council here, he said that during April-September exports were 58,210 tonne

worth Rs 1,222.93 crore as against 59,112 tonne worth Rs 1,331.41 crore during the corresponding period last year. There was a 1.53% fall in quantity and 8.15% in value. Even the unit value realisation decreased by 6.72% to Rs 210.09 per kg as against Rs 225.23 last year. However, this decrease could be offset given the positive growth in exports during September alone.

A total 7,228 tonne valued at Rs 152.31 crore was exported when it was 6,373 tonne worth Rs 139.78 crore during September 2005, registering a 13.42% rise in quantity and 8,96% in value. He added with installed capacity of the cashew processing industry estimated to be around 12 lakh tonne annually, the industry was forced to import raw nuts.

During the last fiscal, 5.65 lakh tonne was imported when the total production in the country was 5.73 lakh tonne. It was important that domestic production had to be not only increased but productivity at 815 kg per hectare had to be raised on par with Vietnam where it was 2,000 kg per hectare.

273,000 families live off hazelnuts

Thursday, October 19, 2006


The real number is considerably higher than official figures, says the industry minister

ANKARA – TDN Parliament Bureau



Industry and Trade Minister Ali Coşkun said on Wednesday that 273,876 families worked in the hazelnut sector and were registered as farmers.

In a statement released in response to a parliamentary question filed by Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) deputy Hüseyin Güler, Coşkun said the registered number was considerably lower that the real figure, believed to be around 400,000. Coşkun also said that while thousands of families from the East and the Southeast went to the Black Sea region every summer to work the hazelnut harvest, no official figures existed on their number.

The summer was dominated by a hazelnut crisis, one of the most serious problems the current government has had to face in its four years in power.

Until 2003 the Hazelnut Growers Union (Fiskobirlik), which purchases the excess hazelnut harvest, was state run. The purchase of excess hazelnut production caused it to record an average annual loss of YTL 100 million. After 2003 the union became autonomous and state assistance stopped. Turkey's annual hazelnut consumption is around 70,000 tons. It exports between 400,000 and 450,000 tons, almost 80 percent of global consumption, making it the world leader in hazelnut production. In 2005, it exported hazelnuts to 50 nations, netting more than $1.5 billion (1.17 billion euros) for the state coffers. This year growers will produce around 650,000 tons of hazelnuts, a figure that considerably exceeds current demand. Efforts are under way to increase domestic consumption to 100,000 tons per annum. More than 2 million people in the Black Sea region make their living from hazelnuts, and the plunge in prices is having major social consequences, with smaller growers facing huge debts and even financial ruin. Industry-wide losses are estimated at $2.5 billion, experts say. The recent collapse in hazelnut prices provoked a fury against the government, blamed by many farmers for failing to sufficiently help them. The problem arose because Turkish production outstripped world demand, causing prices to drop over the past year from 6 to 2.5 YTL (3.2 to 1.3 euros) per kilogram.

In July, between 100,000 and 150,000 protesters took to the streets of Ordu on the Black Sea, in Turkey's hazelnut heartland, to protest government policy. Industry representatives warn there is more trouble in store unless the situation is remedied.

After months of wrangling, the government decided to help the producers by allowing the Agricultural Products Office (TMO) to purchase the surplus hazelnuts.

Later, Fiskobirlik and TMO announced an agreement under which TMO will purchase surplus hazelnut production in exchange for permission to use Fiskobirlik storage facilities and will also secure loans enabling Fiskobirlik to pay for its 2005 surplus hazelnut purchases.


© 2005 Dogan Daily News Inc. www.turkishdailynews.com.tr

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Walnut market update
CROP:

The Walnut Marketing Board announced the September shipments at 21,917 inshell equivalent tons, 6,000 tons less than last year. Inshell shipments were 5.9 million pounds, 3.5 million pounds less that last September. Shelled shipments were 16.8 million pounds, 3.9 million pounds than last year. Total inshell equivalent shipments were 39,533 tons; 11,666 tons less than last year.

Due to the crop being two weeks late, both inshell and shelled production was impacted, with very little shipments from new crop taking place in September. This helps explain why both the Inshell and Shelled shipments were off from last years numbers.

Surprising, the early varieties did not receive the sunburn damage the industry expected. In addition, the serious damage (insect, mold) appear to be average as was the overall quality.

Most of the industry leaders believe the crop will come up short of the official California estimate of 350,000 tons. This early analysis’s is based on packers receiving less tonnage from orchards that had higher production last year.

The State’s survey projected the Chandlers would be off 22 percent, Serr’s off 18 percent and Hartley’s up by 9 percent. I have a problem accepting some of the state’s objective measurement of the 2006 crop. First, I find it hard to believe the Chandlers will be down 22 percent and the Hartley’s up by 9 percent. I believe the Chandlers will be off from last year but not by much. In addition, I believe the Hartley tonnage will not be up, but down from last year. I will let you know how it turns out later.


MARKET:

The market has remained stable and has firmed slightly since opening prices. Packers are offering Chandler LHP at $2.70, regular LHP at $2.60 and CHP at $2.40. Most bookings have been taking place five cents below these levels; however, the Combo material has firmed with most recent bookings taking place at the $2.40 level.

Because of the late crop, the inshell market will have some challenges meeting required shipment dates. I do not believe production will be able to make up for the late crop and there will be a lot of pressure to make early vessels to Europe.


I expect the walnut market to remain firm with the possibility of some strengthen if the crop continues to come up short. However, I do not see a big fluctuation one way or the other.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Monday, October 16, 2006

UPDATE TO THE TRADE

October 13, 2006

The USDA has announced their first estimate of the 2006 pecan crop at 201.4 million inshell pounds. The National Pecan Shellers Association estimated the crop back in September at 204 million inshell pounds while the Louisiana and Texas average estimates ranged from 171 to 181 million inshell pounds. Cold storage holdings for July and August were slightly higher than normal and we expect to see a carryout between 120 and 130 million inshell pounds at October 31, 2006. We utilize the October 31st cold storage number as the official carryout number as October is a very large shipping month yet very little new crop inshell will move during this month.

The general consensus from growers and accumulators is that the USDA estimate is close to accurate with a good quality crop on the trees. Harvest should begin in the Southestern states in a few weeks. Holiday demand for first new crop availability will be strong as gift packers and other retail users specify only new crop material. The western states will begin their harvest in late November.

We will continue to keep you informed as the crop begins to harvest and the next USDA estimate will be released in early December.
California Prune Harvest Jumps
WASHINGTON - Oct 12/06 - SNS -- California's 2006 prune production is forecast at 170,000 dried tons, up 17% from the June 1 forecast and 89% above the heat damaged 2005 crop, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.

Bearing area, at 67,000 acres, is unchanged since last year. This year's prune crop experienced an unseasonable rainy period during bloom which hampered pollination and led to a small fruit set statewide.

As the season progressed, the crop prospects improved. This production forecast is based on a survey of prune growers conducted from August 21 through September 13.
US: pistachio farmers harvest a lighter crop

A later and lighter California pistachio harvest continues in the Central Valley. Farmers say they're finding fewer pistachios in their orchards, and that crop volume may be down as much as 20 percent compared to a year ago. Warm weather was a factor in making for a smaller harvest that at first expected.

“They don’t bloom uniformly without enough chilling hours. We figure we need about 1,000 hours of chilling,” says Tom Coleman, a Madera County pistachio farmer explaining the pistachio tree’s need for enough cool weather during the bloom. “We had erratic spring weather so they did not bloom uniformly,” Mr. Coleman says. “Consequently, we’ll have a lot of nuts that will be left on the tree because they were not pollinated so they will have nothing inside of the,”

Mr. Coleman says consumers should not see any impact because of a carryover of pistachios from last season's crop that should ensure steady supplies and prices. But Mr. Coleman says he sees demand for pistachios remaining strong for years to come. “People are looking toward healthy snack foods. Pistachios are right in there,” he says.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Pistachio farmers harvest a lighter crop

MADERA October 11, 2006 12:01am


• Weather is getting the blame
• Many shells without nuts inside A later and lighter California pistachio harvest continues in the Central Valley.

Farmers say they're finding fewer pistachios in their orchards, and that crop volume may be down as much as 20 percent compared to a year ago.
Warm weather was a factor in making for a smaller harvest that at first expected.
“They don’t bloom uniformly without enough chilling hours. We figure we need about 1,000 hours of chilling,” says Tom Coleman, a Madera County pistachio farmer explaining the pistachio tree’s need for enough cool weather during the bloom.
“We had erratic spring weather so they did not bloom uniformly,” Mr. Coleman says. “Consequently, we’ll have a lot of nuts that will be left on the tree because they were not pollinated so they will have nothing inside of the,”
Mr. Coleman says consumers should not see any impact because of a carryover of pistachios from last season's crop that should ensure steady supplies and prices.
But Mr. Coleman says he sees demand for pistachios remaining strong for years to come.
“People are looking toward healthy snack foods. Pistachios are right in there,” he says.

Friday, October 06, 2006

UPDATE ON PEANUTS October 5, 2006

Supply2005
Crop production 2,410,000 tons of farmer stock
2005 Crop production 1,601,000 tons of farmer stock (USDA est.) Down 34%
Industry estimates closer to 1.5 mil tons. (Down 38%)
Tonnage is down due to 25% reduction in acres and poor growing conditions
Carry-in from 2005 is estimated at 700,000 tons.

Demand
Demand on US crop 1.85 mil tons
Demand includes domestic usage 1.4, seed .12 mil, exports .33 mil tons.
Supply 2,300,000 = 1,600,000 Crop + 700,000 carry-in
Demand – 1,900,000 = 400,000 carry-out
This is a normal carry-out


Market
The only reason we do not have 60-cent peanuts is the giant carry-in from 2005
Today, Oct – Dec ’06 shipments, ’05 crop:
JR $.4350/lb, MR $.3850/lb, Splits $.38/lb and #1’s $.36/lb.
No offers on 2006 Crop shipping Jan – Sep ‘07
Shellers have bought half of the crop at $365 / ton and sold, at least, this amount
Any future sales will be from farmer stock yet to be purchased. The word on the street is that it will take at least $400 / ton to buy, it may take $425. For a sheller to make his margins with $400 farmer stock, prices would be:
JR $.45/lb, MR $.41/lb, Splits $.40/lb and #1’s $.38/lb.
In the next 3 weeks we should know pricing on farmer stock
Note: Jumbo’s will likely be short and the differential may increase

2007 Crop

* We need to increase acres at least 10% to make sure we meet demand.
* 2006 acres 1,213,000 x 2640 lbs/ac. = 1,601,000 tons
* 2007 acres 1,334,300 x 2900 lbs/ac (5 yr. average yield) = 1,935,000 tons
* This would be a comfortable carry-out and hedge, if the yields are lower
* Talk is, with fuel cost and petro-chemical cost high, it will take $415 to $425/ton to increase acres. If storage and handling is not included in the 2007 crop, add $40/ton. Storage and handling should be settled by the middle of Nov ‘06
* Peanut Prices if farmer stock is:
$415/ton – JR $.46, MR $.42, splits $.41 and #1’s $.39/lb.
$425/ton – add 1-cent/lb.
$465/ton – JR $..48, MR $.45, splits $.44 and #1’s $.42/lb.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Vietnam earns less from cashew export in first 9 months
Vietnam is estimated to reap cashew export earnings of 359 million U.S. dollars in the first nine months of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percent, despite its higher export volume, according to the Vietnam Cashew Association Friday. In the period, the country is set to export 90,000 tons of the product, mainly to China, the United States, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, England and Russia, up 17.4 percent over the same period last year.
Vietnam is estimated to earn some 400 million dollars from exporting cashew nuts this year, down from 486 million dollars last year, said the association. The country, which had 350,000 hectares of cashew trees in 2005, plans to increase the cashew acreage to 450,000 hectares and export revenue of 700 million dollars by 2010. It shipped abroad 103,000 tons of nuts valued at 486 million dollars in 2005, said the association.
Iran pistachio farmers worried
As the annual pistachio harvest begins, Ali Bajvand has more to worry about than backbreaking labour and changes in crop prices. There is growing unease that possible economic sanctions over the country's controversial nuclear programme could stifle the world's largest pistachio exporter. It was unclear what effect sanctions could have on the pistachio business, but the prospect of losing lucrative markets in the Middle East, Asia and Europe is unnerving for growers like Bajvand.
"I'm harvesting the fruit of my life. What you see here now is the outcome of all the work and care that I've devoted to these trees for the past couple of months," he said. "But I'm told our life will become hard if sanctions are imposed and pistachios are not exported." There is similar nervousness and uncertainly among many Iranians, who are unsure whether there will be sanctions, and unclear on the possible effects, but worried about their livelihoods nonetheless.
The pistachio industry brings in an average of US$500m a year and provides work for hundreds of thousands of people in a nation where at least 11 per cent of the population is unemployed. Last year, Iran earned US$824m from a bumper pistachio crop of 140,000 tons, mostly produced here in southeastern Iran. The United States is leading the charge for sanctions if Tehran refuses to stop enriching uranium, a key step toward either producing nuclear fuel or building nuclear weapons. The US and others fear oil-rich Iran's goal in developing enrichment technology is to produce material for atomic bomb. Iran says it needs enrichment to provide fuel for nuclear reactors that will generate electricity for the developing nation.
Iran ignored an Aug 31 UN Security Council deadline to halt enrichment or face the possibility of economic sanctions. Should sanctions be imposed, Iran's oil industry would most likely suffer the most. Iran heavily relies on oil exports as a major source of revenue and is the world's fourth-largest oil producer. Other major exports include iron, steel, carpets and saffron. Still, the US faces an uphill battle in the UN Security Council to persuade Russia, China and others to impose punitive measures.
And even if sanctions are imposed, they may not extend to agricultural exports. "It's not clear if there will be any sanctions at all," said Ali Asadi, manager of Aria Pistachio, a pistachio export company. "And even if the worst comes and sanctions are imposed, it will initially be for the government-run factories, oil et cetera, not pistachios exported by private firms." "However, it will be a very bad development if sanctions are imposed because in the long-run it will harm our business," he said.