MAY 8, 2010
Cashew market was quiet in Week 18. Very limited volumes were traded compared to the activity in previous two weeks (following the pattern of past several months). No change in prices – W240 around 3.15, W320 between 2.90 and 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB. Undertone was steady to firm.
RCN market is also steady with a firm undertone. IVC is being traded in 800-830 range depending on the quality. Some early sales of GB have been made around 1025 C&F. The number of players in RCN market has increased this year resulting in a wider price range. At the higher levels, buying interest is limited. Arrivals of WA RCN into India & Vietnam has just started. The fact of a short Benin crop has been factored into the supply situation but there will continue to be some uncertainty about other WA origins until Jun/Jul. Although there may not be big change in overall availability, market will be influenced by rumours and perception of crop prospects. RCN pricing will depend on this and the trend / pattern of kernel activity in next 8 weeks. If kernel market is quiet, processors will be reluctant to buy at higher prices.
There is nothing on the horizon to change view on kernel market prospects for coming weeks & months. The pattern of periodic activity will keep the market swinging in a range. Lower processing & shipments in Apr/May might lead to supply tightness in USA & Europe for some time – hopefully this should ease in third quarter (unless the delays turn into defaults).
If there is no large buying NEED in the next 6-8 weeks, we might see some selling pressure (and lower prices) in the third quarter. But if any significant volume needs to be bought in this period, prices will continue to remain around the higher end of the current range (meaning no respite in RCN prices) and probably move up in third quarter when the Asian (esp. Indian) demand will also be high.
Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, May 10, 2010
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
USDA to buy up to $18 million in cranberries to help reduce surplus in Wisconsin, other states
By Associated Press
5:02 AM CDT, May 5, 2010
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, Wis. (AP) — The federal government will buy up to $18 million worth of cranberries to help reduce the surplus in Wisconsin and other states.Growers of the tart fruit saw record harvests in the last few years. That led to supply that outstripped demand, resulting in lower prices and surplus inventories.So the U.S. Department of Agriculture will buy excess cranberries for use in food-assistance programs.The next step is for the USDA to determine which farmers' crops it will buy. Wisconsin growers should be well represented among the beneficiaries because the state produces about 60 percent of the nation's crop.Tom Lochner is with the Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association. He tells Wisconsin Public Radio the USDA supply will be used for cranberry sauce and juice.___On the Net:Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association: http://www.wiscran.org/___Information from: Wisconsin Public Radio, http://www.wpr.org
5:02 AM CDT, May 5, 2010
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, Wis. (AP) — The federal government will buy up to $18 million worth of cranberries to help reduce the surplus in Wisconsin and other states.Growers of the tart fruit saw record harvests in the last few years. That led to supply that outstripped demand, resulting in lower prices and surplus inventories.So the U.S. Department of Agriculture will buy excess cranberries for use in food-assistance programs.The next step is for the USDA to determine which farmers' crops it will buy. Wisconsin growers should be well represented among the beneficiaries because the state produces about 60 percent of the nation's crop.Tom Lochner is with the Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association. He tells Wisconsin Public Radio the USDA supply will be used for cranberry sauce and juice.___On the Net:Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association: http://www.wiscran.org/___Information from: Wisconsin Public Radio, http://www.wpr.org
Monday, May 03, 2010
Weekly cashews update
MAY 1, 2010
Cashew prices moved up a few cents in Week 17. Business was done for W240 from 3.05 to 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 from 2.70 to 2.75 FOB. Most of the business was for May-Jul/Aug but some business was done for last quarter as well. Volumes traded were not very large but all markets have been buying some quantities in the last two weeks.
RCN shipments from IVC are slow due to various logistic problems. Prices there have gone up in the last two weeks. Opening prices for Guinea Bissau RCN are higher than expected. Supply does not seem to be a problem but the market is influenced by sentiments, increase in number of small buyers, disruptions in flow, fear of being left with inadequate rawmaterial, etc. Even if prices are unworkable, there is always someone in the market and this is providing support to the market. Unless kernel demand picks up during May, processors will find it difficult to buy big quantities at these higher prices.
On the kernel side, buyers seem to be content with buying when they need. They do not seem to have confidence to cover large volumes – they have been covering small quantities at all levels. Some buyers have started buying for forward positions but quantities have been limited. Asian markets are usually quiet during this period – activity will pick up in few weeks and will peak in third quarter. Asian markets traditionally buy spot / nearby and this leads to spikes in activity and prices.
Prices of almost all other nuts are higher than historical average – in some cases, the increase is much more than cashews. Overall nut usage in the two main cashew importing regions (USA & EU) may not be much different from last few years - there might be a shift in individual items depending on availability and extent of price changes. Change in buying pattern will keep the market volatile – decision making becomes difficult.
Our feeling is that unless RCN prices come down in May/Jun, downside for kernel market is limited. Upside will depend on when & how much buyers need to buy for second half deliveries.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand and price trends and any other news or information
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew prices moved up a few cents in Week 17. Business was done for W240 from 3.05 to 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 from 2.70 to 2.75 FOB. Most of the business was for May-Jul/Aug but some business was done for last quarter as well. Volumes traded were not very large but all markets have been buying some quantities in the last two weeks.
RCN shipments from IVC are slow due to various logistic problems. Prices there have gone up in the last two weeks. Opening prices for Guinea Bissau RCN are higher than expected. Supply does not seem to be a problem but the market is influenced by sentiments, increase in number of small buyers, disruptions in flow, fear of being left with inadequate rawmaterial, etc. Even if prices are unworkable, there is always someone in the market and this is providing support to the market. Unless kernel demand picks up during May, processors will find it difficult to buy big quantities at these higher prices.
On the kernel side, buyers seem to be content with buying when they need. They do not seem to have confidence to cover large volumes – they have been covering small quantities at all levels. Some buyers have started buying for forward positions but quantities have been limited. Asian markets are usually quiet during this period – activity will pick up in few weeks and will peak in third quarter. Asian markets traditionally buy spot / nearby and this leads to spikes in activity and prices.
Prices of almost all other nuts are higher than historical average – in some cases, the increase is much more than cashews. Overall nut usage in the two main cashew importing regions (USA & EU) may not be much different from last few years - there might be a shift in individual items depending on availability and extent of price changes. Change in buying pattern will keep the market volatile – decision making becomes difficult.
Our feeling is that unless RCN prices come down in May/Jun, downside for kernel market is limited. Upside will depend on when & how much buyers need to buy for second half deliveries.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand and price trends and any other news or information
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, April 26, 2010
Weekly cashews update
APR 24, 2010
After a quiet beginning, there was some activity in the market in the second half of week 16. Some quantities were traded to USA (and a little to Europe and other markets as well). Prices moved up a few cents with sales for W240 at 3.05-3.10, W320 at 2.80-2.85, W450 at 2.70-2.75 FOB. Splits / Butts moved up to about 2.35 FOB but offers were scarce. Indian domestic market continued to be quiet.
RCN market is steady. First shipments of WA RCN have started arriving in India. Most of the Benin crop has been sold. IVC is trading around US$ 800. In March, most of the sales were to Vietnam but now both India & Vietnam are buying. There have been some speculative sales by RCN traders for GB but real situation will not be known till mid May. There is a reasonable quantity of RCN still to be traded from IVC + GB (and its smaller neighbours) but it is difficult to judge the price trend.
On the demand side, first quarter offtake seems to have been good (although there are reports of declines in some markets). Outlook for coming months is not clear but there are no reasons to expect any decline. If prices for other nuts do not come down, retailers in USA & Europe might be inclined to put more cashews & mixed nuts/dried fruits on the shelves to meet the nut category demand. Inventories are low (and might be tighter in Jun/Jul due to lower shipments from origin in Apr/May). Some buyers have been buying portion of their forward requirements in the last few weeks, but many buyers continue to buy for nearbys only as they do not see anything on horizon for prices to increase too much.
On the supply side, despite crop concerns in some areas & delays in some others, overall availability for 2010 seems to be comfortable. But due to the uncertainty of RCN prices, processors are reluctant to make any large forward sales. Unless the RCN prices come down in May/Jun, they will not be inclined to take on any big commitments – they will continue to sell small volumes when they have to because the regular demand will keep things moving.
Periodic dips have been opportunities for buyers to cover some volume and periodic spikes have been inducing processors to make some sales. This trend is likely to continue and keep the market within current range until we reach a tipping point – either a big change in RCN prices or a big bunch of buying or selling interest in a short period.
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
After a quiet beginning, there was some activity in the market in the second half of week 16. Some quantities were traded to USA (and a little to Europe and other markets as well). Prices moved up a few cents with sales for W240 at 3.05-3.10, W320 at 2.80-2.85, W450 at 2.70-2.75 FOB. Splits / Butts moved up to about 2.35 FOB but offers were scarce. Indian domestic market continued to be quiet.
RCN market is steady. First shipments of WA RCN have started arriving in India. Most of the Benin crop has been sold. IVC is trading around US$ 800. In March, most of the sales were to Vietnam but now both India & Vietnam are buying. There have been some speculative sales by RCN traders for GB but real situation will not be known till mid May. There is a reasonable quantity of RCN still to be traded from IVC + GB (and its smaller neighbours) but it is difficult to judge the price trend.
On the demand side, first quarter offtake seems to have been good (although there are reports of declines in some markets). Outlook for coming months is not clear but there are no reasons to expect any decline. If prices for other nuts do not come down, retailers in USA & Europe might be inclined to put more cashews & mixed nuts/dried fruits on the shelves to meet the nut category demand. Inventories are low (and might be tighter in Jun/Jul due to lower shipments from origin in Apr/May). Some buyers have been buying portion of their forward requirements in the last few weeks, but many buyers continue to buy for nearbys only as they do not see anything on horizon for prices to increase too much.
On the supply side, despite crop concerns in some areas & delays in some others, overall availability for 2010 seems to be comfortable. But due to the uncertainty of RCN prices, processors are reluctant to make any large forward sales. Unless the RCN prices come down in May/Jun, they will not be inclined to take on any big commitments – they will continue to sell small volumes when they have to because the regular demand will keep things moving.
Periodic dips have been opportunities for buyers to cover some volume and periodic spikes have been inducing processors to make some sales. This trend is likely to continue and keep the market within current range until we reach a tipping point – either a big change in RCN prices or a big bunch of buying or selling interest in a short period.
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, April 12, 2010
Weekly cashew update
APR 10, 2010
Despite people being back after long weekend, cashew market continued to be quiet in Week 14. Prices came down a few cents e.g. W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.85, W450 around 2.65 FOB but there was not much selling interest at the lower levels. Indian domestic market was quiet due to tax changes in two major consuming states but prices were high (Splits equiv to 2.60 and LWP equiv to 2.25 FOB !!)
IVC RCN prices came down by 30-40 dollars a ton – current range is US$ 800-825 C&F. Vietnam buyers seem to have reduced their buying speed and large Indian buyers do not seem to be keen to buy until they see some activity in kernels. It is reported that quality of IVC RCN this year is better (at least what is coming in now).
In the kernel market also, the waiting game continues. Everybody seems to be content with making small purchases & sales when required. Nobody wants to take large positions. This trend is likely to continue for sometime and will result in the periodic bursts of activity (and spike or dip in prices) that we have seen every few weeks in last several months.
Fundamentally, there seems to be a good balance between demand and supply (although some regions may have shortages and kernel shipments in second quarter may be lower). We have always felt that cashew market is more pushed by supply rather than pulled by demand. Unless there is a big change on supply side, there will be no “breakout” from the price range. Due to change in market dynamics – discussed earlier – there is increasing emphasis on short term buying. Consequently, price range is becoming wider & volatility is becoming higher.
Based on available information, we feel that for the rest of the year market will move in a 2.60-2.90 range. In the lower half of the range, selling interest from origins will be limited to nearbys (unless RCN prices come down dramatically in May/June). If this does not happen, there is a reasonable chance of kernel prices being near the higher end of the range in the second half.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on demand & market trend + any other info & news
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Despite people being back after long weekend, cashew market continued to be quiet in Week 14. Prices came down a few cents e.g. W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.85, W450 around 2.65 FOB but there was not much selling interest at the lower levels. Indian domestic market was quiet due to tax changes in two major consuming states but prices were high (Splits equiv to 2.60 and LWP equiv to 2.25 FOB !!)
IVC RCN prices came down by 30-40 dollars a ton – current range is US$ 800-825 C&F. Vietnam buyers seem to have reduced their buying speed and large Indian buyers do not seem to be keen to buy until they see some activity in kernels. It is reported that quality of IVC RCN this year is better (at least what is coming in now).
In the kernel market also, the waiting game continues. Everybody seems to be content with making small purchases & sales when required. Nobody wants to take large positions. This trend is likely to continue for sometime and will result in the periodic bursts of activity (and spike or dip in prices) that we have seen every few weeks in last several months.
Fundamentally, there seems to be a good balance between demand and supply (although some regions may have shortages and kernel shipments in second quarter may be lower). We have always felt that cashew market is more pushed by supply rather than pulled by demand. Unless there is a big change on supply side, there will be no “breakout” from the price range. Due to change in market dynamics – discussed earlier – there is increasing emphasis on short term buying. Consequently, price range is becoming wider & volatility is becoming higher.
Based on available information, we feel that for the rest of the year market will move in a 2.60-2.90 range. In the lower half of the range, selling interest from origins will be limited to nearbys (unless RCN prices come down dramatically in May/June). If this does not happen, there is a reasonable chance of kernel prices being near the higher end of the range in the second half.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on demand & market trend + any other info & news
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
No macadamia bumper crop this year
Most affected orchards have shown some recovery from the significant tree and limb loss experienced in May 2009. However hot, dry and dusty conditions around flowering had a negative influence on the 2010 Australian macadamia crop.The industry forecasting model predicts a crop of 41,600 MT of nut in shell (NIS) or an equivalent of 12,220 MT of kernel according to the peak industry body for the Australian macadamia industry, the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS).The crop estimate comes from modelling developed over 7 years by the AMS and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development & Innovation. The model works on yield curves developed from historical records and incorporating tree number and age, varieties, climatic data for the growing season and pest and disease incidence.The model has 23 years data from which to estimate the crop and from 2001 to 2007 had an overall average error of 8.2%. With increasingly extreme weather conditions in 2008 and 2009 at the limits of the data set, the average error is now 12.4%The Australian Macadamia Handlers group who represent over 90% of NIS collected from growers in Australia, have stated that they believe the model prediction is at the very top end of expectations and the more likely crop size is 37,500t. This figure is based on surveys of their suppliers and on past delivery patterns and volumes.These figures are compiled by the AMS and the Handlers Group in the interests of providing the market with accurate, credible and timely production information.The AMS and the Handlers Group will update the crop estimates at the end of June and August once actual delivery figures become available in collaboration with participating processors. A final figure for the season will be released in December 2010.The unfavourable conditions at flowering affected the crop in the northern NSW and south east Queensland areas.“The most predominant variety in the industry had variable nut set between localities although some other varieties are not badly affected” said AMS CEO Jolyon Burnett. “The Bundaberg region was not affected by this problem”.Two seasons of short crop have had an impact on worldwide inventories according to Burnett and demand is strong despite a challenging exchange rate.
Weekly cashew update
APR 3, 2010
Week 13 was very quiet in the Cashew market due to short working week plus general reluctance of processors and buyers to take positions. Undertone was steady and stray trades reported without any change in prices i.e. W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.70 FOB. Indian domestic market – activity and prices – have picked up in the last two weeks.
RCN prices are steady / slightly soft at the end of the week. Arrivals are better in some areas but due to competition among larger number of players in each origin, prices have remained more or less steady. Current levels are around US$ 1000 for Benin and around US$ 850 for IVC.
Reasonable volumes have been sold to USA & Europe in the last few weeks and if there is no fresh buying by roasters, traders may be able to refrain from additional purchases for some time. This might lead to slow drifting of prices (especially if RCN arrivals pick up). Some processors have reduced their selling ideas a few cents this week and others may follow if there is no demand for couple of weeks. But sentiment could change if (a) any large buying interest comes in before the RCN arrivals improve or (b) the RCN prices do not decline despite lack of kernel activity.
On the supply side, there can be no finality about crop size till June. Reports about possible shortage are causing concern amongst processors who do not want to take risk of selling any big volumes. There is definitely a delay in arrivals and this will probably create a squeeze in supplies for few weeks due to reduced shipments in Apr/May. If crops are okay, there will be good volume to be sold for SH 2010 but the pricing will depend on buying time.
On the demand side also, the approach is cautious. Despite some positives – improvement in general economic situation in most countries, higher prices for all nuts, etc – there is some concern about demand & price trend. So, buyers are reluctant to commit large volumes or long spreads. But at some stage, they will have to buy to avoid being caught without adequate product when it is needed.
The cautious approach on both sides coupled with the change in market shares means more activity for spot & nearbys leading to increased volatility. Selling and buying strategies will have to adapt to this change – averaging seems to the best option in uncertain times.
Please let us know your comments on market situation, views on prospects for coming weeks / months and any other info / news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Week 13 was very quiet in the Cashew market due to short working week plus general reluctance of processors and buyers to take positions. Undertone was steady and stray trades reported without any change in prices i.e. W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.70 FOB. Indian domestic market – activity and prices – have picked up in the last two weeks.
RCN prices are steady / slightly soft at the end of the week. Arrivals are better in some areas but due to competition among larger number of players in each origin, prices have remained more or less steady. Current levels are around US$ 1000 for Benin and around US$ 850 for IVC.
Reasonable volumes have been sold to USA & Europe in the last few weeks and if there is no fresh buying by roasters, traders may be able to refrain from additional purchases for some time. This might lead to slow drifting of prices (especially if RCN arrivals pick up). Some processors have reduced their selling ideas a few cents this week and others may follow if there is no demand for couple of weeks. But sentiment could change if (a) any large buying interest comes in before the RCN arrivals improve or (b) the RCN prices do not decline despite lack of kernel activity.
On the supply side, there can be no finality about crop size till June. Reports about possible shortage are causing concern amongst processors who do not want to take risk of selling any big volumes. There is definitely a delay in arrivals and this will probably create a squeeze in supplies for few weeks due to reduced shipments in Apr/May. If crops are okay, there will be good volume to be sold for SH 2010 but the pricing will depend on buying time.
On the demand side also, the approach is cautious. Despite some positives – improvement in general economic situation in most countries, higher prices for all nuts, etc – there is some concern about demand & price trend. So, buyers are reluctant to commit large volumes or long spreads. But at some stage, they will have to buy to avoid being caught without adequate product when it is needed.
The cautious approach on both sides coupled with the change in market shares means more activity for spot & nearbys leading to increased volatility. Selling and buying strategies will have to adapt to this change – averaging seems to the best option in uncertain times.
Please let us know your comments on market situation, views on prospects for coming weeks / months and any other info / news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Friday, March 26, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
Hazelnut prices reach a peak
ISTANBUL – Daily News with wiresSunday, March 21, 2010The scarcity of hazelnuts in the Turkish market reportedly raises prices. Weather conditions are expected to shape the price of hazelnuts for the upcoming period, say sector representatives. Also, the advent of high hazelnut prices brings forth new rival countries, according to the Hazelnut Promotion Group
Hazelnut prices in Turkey, which are determined by free market conditions according to the new strategy, have recently reached a record level for the year.
Giresun quality fat hazelnut, which was traded at 3.30 Turkish Liras per kilogram in September, is now going for 4.90 liras, Anatolia News Agency reported Friday. Levant quality hazelnuts, which have a lower level of fat than the Giresun quality hazelnuts but a higher level of fat than those grown in the other countries, rose from 3.20 liras to 4.70 liras. The Turkish Grain Board has not made purchases this year.
The prices have reportedly started to rise with the impact of the scarcity of hazelnuts in the market. The prices are expected to rise further with claims that the unexpected snow in March may result in a possible frost, reducing the yield.
The hazelnut yield is low this year, said Mehmet Cirav, president of the assembly at the Trabzon Commodity Exchange in the Black Sea region. Prices have reached the peak level of this season because producers have scarce product at hand these months, he said.
Noting that the producers with hazelnuts in stock do not want to give their products to the market while prices are rising, Cirav said: “In such a situation, the producers have greater expectations. And the prices increase.”
The snow in Trabzon this month has not affected the hazelnut supply at present, Cirav said. “But it may affect the prices in a speculative way. Hazelnuts may be damaged in case of agricultural frost during the night. The rise in current prices stems from the scarcity of the hazelnuts that producers have now.”
Weather impact
Özer Akbaşlı, chairman of the agricultural chamber in the Black Sea city of Giresun, also expressed the scarcity of hazelnuts in the market, adding that the Turkish Grain Board has also not put its hazelnuts on the market. “Therefore, the prices have risen. Farmers still have hazelnuts.”
Merchants are raising prices to obtain hazelnuts, according to Cirav. “We already expected this rise. In the upcoming days, the prices may rise further due to the negative weather conditions experienced in the east and west of the Black Sea. I do not want to make a prediction but I expect the prices to increase further to a certain degree.”
A recent front in the region has damaged hazelnut fields at an altitude of 500 and 750 meters, Akbaşlı said, also referring to snow. “The Meteorological Service has issued a warning about agricultural frost for Giresun, Ordu and Trabzon. A problem in these regions may significantly affect the yield for next year.”
Akbaşlı said it is not possible to predict at present how much a possible frost would affect hazelnut prices. However, he also expressed some other possible threats for hazelnut, such as wind and temperature till August.
“How frost will affect the Black Sea region and overall yield is important. According to last year’s hazelnut flower calculation, the expected amount was around 430,000. The expectation for this year is, on the other hand, around 630,000. If the yield falls below last year, prices may hit the ceiling. In this case, the hazelnuts of the Turkish Grain Board become very valuable. Through a worldwide demand, the board may compensate its losses of millions of dollars.”
Competition warms up globally
Meanwhile, the Hazelnut Promotion Group, or FTG, said on March 11 that the formation of high hazelnut prices despite the constant rise in hazelnut production lately brings forth new rival countries. The world’s hazelnut production, which was nearly 250,000 tons in 1960s, has surpassed 1 million tons today, as Turkey could not limit its plantation area, the group said.
“Hazelnut production began to decline in developed countries such as Italy and Spain between 1995 and 2007 period while it remained same in the United States. However, in Azerbaijan and Georgia, the production adopted an uptrend in that time,” read statement by FTG.
“Georgia’s hazelnut production, which stood at 800 tons in 1995, has reached 9,250 tons, a more than 11-fold increase within 12 years. In Azerbaijan, the situation is quite same as its hazelnut production increased to 17,500 tons from 1,500 tons between 1995 to 2007 period. Hazelnut production in Azerbaijan is expected to rise to 70,000 tons in a short while. Romania also continues planting hazelnuts as well as Armenia, Ukraine and Bulgaria. The increasing prices orient even some of the South American countries toward hazelnut plantation.”
According to the FTG, “The world’s hazelnut exports have increased nearly 2.8 percent over the last 10 years while Turkey’s production has grown by 3.6 percent on average. Turkey determines the world’s hazelnut prices with some little deviations.”
However, some of the countries that have begun hazelnut production recently increase their chances in foreign markets because their production costs are very low compared to Turkey, the group warned. “These countries have also high efficiency in their production. This situation will reduce Turkey’s competition potential in foreign markets as others become a strong competitor.”
© 2009 Hurriyet Daily News URL: www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=hazelnut-prices-reach-a-peak-2010-03-21
Weekly Cashews Update
MAR 20, 2010
The upward move in Cashew prices continued in Week 11 – in all grades now but significantly more in W320s. There was good demand from USA and some from Europe & other markets (two weeks it was Europe which was more active). This week, business has been done for W240 upto 3.05, W320 upto 2.80 and W450 upto 2.60 FOB. As we always see in a rising market, some processors sold at slightly higher levels to regular & off markets.
RCN prices in all origins have also moved up – India & Vietnam approx 1100, Benin around 950, IVC around 775 C&F. Shipments from Benin & IVC will start next week. In all origins, people have started talking of concerns – delays and possible shortages. Some of this may turn out to be true but it is too early in the season to say for sure. As we said earlier, for next few weeks, market will be driven by a lot of unconfirmed “news” but there is no alternative because reliable information is not available.
There is no change in fundamentals – supply seems comfortable (unless the worst rumours are true) & demand is steady (decline/low growth in some markets and steady to strong growth in others). Cashew usage is more supply led than other nuts – everything produced is consumed. Carryover is generally small (operational inventories at each stage) unless there is a big change in production from one year to the next (which we have not seen in a long time).
Geographical distribution of cashew usage has changed dramatically – over 50% of the world cashews are now consumed in Asia compared to less than 25% about 10 years ago. Problems of 2008 (world economy in general and cashew industry in particular) + inventory financing constraints + reduced risk appetite + uncertainty of demand trends (economic situation affecting mood of the consumer) have resulted in change in buying patterns of the roasters & retailers. All this has increased the proportion of spot & nearby buying and added to the volatility of market.
These developments will require all stakeholders to change their decision making process and selling / buying strategies. In uncertain (and consequently volatile) situations, the best form of defence seems to be participate at all levels to have a reasonable average rather than act when you have to (because that may not be the right time in the cycle to sell or buy).
Unless something dramatic happens with crops in more than one origin in the next few months when 1.50 million tons are to be traded, a wide trading range of 2.50-3.00 for W320 seems to have been established for 2010 (within this range, we will see more volatility for 6-8 weeks and then a narrower range in the third quarter).
Please tell me your views on market situation + comments / forecast of demand & market trend + any other info & news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
The upward move in Cashew prices continued in Week 11 – in all grades now but significantly more in W320s. There was good demand from USA and some from Europe & other markets (two weeks it was Europe which was more active). This week, business has been done for W240 upto 3.05, W320 upto 2.80 and W450 upto 2.60 FOB. As we always see in a rising market, some processors sold at slightly higher levels to regular & off markets.
RCN prices in all origins have also moved up – India & Vietnam approx 1100, Benin around 950, IVC around 775 C&F. Shipments from Benin & IVC will start next week. In all origins, people have started talking of concerns – delays and possible shortages. Some of this may turn out to be true but it is too early in the season to say for sure. As we said earlier, for next few weeks, market will be driven by a lot of unconfirmed “news” but there is no alternative because reliable information is not available.
There is no change in fundamentals – supply seems comfortable (unless the worst rumours are true) & demand is steady (decline/low growth in some markets and steady to strong growth in others). Cashew usage is more supply led than other nuts – everything produced is consumed. Carryover is generally small (operational inventories at each stage) unless there is a big change in production from one year to the next (which we have not seen in a long time).
Geographical distribution of cashew usage has changed dramatically – over 50% of the world cashews are now consumed in Asia compared to less than 25% about 10 years ago. Problems of 2008 (world economy in general and cashew industry in particular) + inventory financing constraints + reduced risk appetite + uncertainty of demand trends (economic situation affecting mood of the consumer) have resulted in change in buying patterns of the roasters & retailers. All this has increased the proportion of spot & nearby buying and added to the volatility of market.
These developments will require all stakeholders to change their decision making process and selling / buying strategies. In uncertain (and consequently volatile) situations, the best form of defence seems to be participate at all levels to have a reasonable average rather than act when you have to (because that may not be the right time in the cycle to sell or buy).
Unless something dramatic happens with crops in more than one origin in the next few months when 1.50 million tons are to be traded, a wide trading range of 2.50-3.00 for W320 seems to have been established for 2010 (within this range, we will see more volatility for 6-8 weeks and then a narrower range in the third quarter).
Please tell me your views on market situation + comments / forecast of demand & market trend + any other info & news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, March 15, 2010
Weekly cashews update
MAR 13, 2010
Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 10 – especially for W320. There was not much volume traded but undertone was firm. Most of the limited business was with USA but there were some sales to Europe & other markets too. W320 were traded from 2.60 to 2.70 FOB. Prices for other grades also moved up a bit e.g. W240 around 3.00 and W450 around 2.50 FOB. Large processors are still not offering.
RCN prices moved up by 50-75 dollars i.e. Benin from 875 to 930-940 C&F, IVC from 720-730 to 775-780 C&F. Reports of slow arrivals in Benin and delays in resolving tax & movement issues in IVC seems to have caused this spike. Except for some shipments from Nigeria, physical movements from other WA origins have not started yet. Indian RCN prices moved up about 100 dollars a ton (not much impact for exporting processors but can have sentimental effect if they continue to remain high). So far, there is no definite indication of crop size in any origin but overall, everything seems to point to normal crops.
Crop news & perceptions – and rumours - will keep the market volatile for next few months when over 1.50 million tons of RCN (nearly 75% of the world production) is to be traded. This is not the best time to take long or large positions but changed market dynamics may force processors & buyers to do so during this volatile period.
Kernel offtake news is confusing. After strong growth in SH 2009, Asia is quiet now (this is normal for this time of the year). Europe reports lower usage whereas USA seems to be slightly better (inventories in both markets seem to be low as spot prices are reported to be high). Other markets have more or less steady growth.
Recent rally in kernel market seems to be due to (1) natural correction after big drop from 2.95 to 2.50 (2) covering by traders who have made sales for FH 2010 in last quarter of 2009 when prices were higher (3) some fresh business by roasters (4) caution buying due to high RCN prices. It is to be seen whether this is a temporary spurt and prices will drift lower again when RCN arrivals pick up OR whether prices will stabilize around current levels.
Volume traded has been small when market moved from 2.95 to 2.50 and also when it moved back from 2.50 to 2.70 FOB. Just as buyers have less cover for second half, processors also do not have any big sales for forwards. Who has to move first – processors or buyers – will determine price range in medium term. Meanwhile, steady buying for nearbys will provide a floor to the market.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand + price trend and any other news + info
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 10 – especially for W320. There was not much volume traded but undertone was firm. Most of the limited business was with USA but there were some sales to Europe & other markets too. W320 were traded from 2.60 to 2.70 FOB. Prices for other grades also moved up a bit e.g. W240 around 3.00 and W450 around 2.50 FOB. Large processors are still not offering.
RCN prices moved up by 50-75 dollars i.e. Benin from 875 to 930-940 C&F, IVC from 720-730 to 775-780 C&F. Reports of slow arrivals in Benin and delays in resolving tax & movement issues in IVC seems to have caused this spike. Except for some shipments from Nigeria, physical movements from other WA origins have not started yet. Indian RCN prices moved up about 100 dollars a ton (not much impact for exporting processors but can have sentimental effect if they continue to remain high). So far, there is no definite indication of crop size in any origin but overall, everything seems to point to normal crops.
Crop news & perceptions – and rumours - will keep the market volatile for next few months when over 1.50 million tons of RCN (nearly 75% of the world production) is to be traded. This is not the best time to take long or large positions but changed market dynamics may force processors & buyers to do so during this volatile period.
Kernel offtake news is confusing. After strong growth in SH 2009, Asia is quiet now (this is normal for this time of the year). Europe reports lower usage whereas USA seems to be slightly better (inventories in both markets seem to be low as spot prices are reported to be high). Other markets have more or less steady growth.
Recent rally in kernel market seems to be due to (1) natural correction after big drop from 2.95 to 2.50 (2) covering by traders who have made sales for FH 2010 in last quarter of 2009 when prices were higher (3) some fresh business by roasters (4) caution buying due to high RCN prices. It is to be seen whether this is a temporary spurt and prices will drift lower again when RCN arrivals pick up OR whether prices will stabilize around current levels.
Volume traded has been small when market moved from 2.95 to 2.50 and also when it moved back from 2.50 to 2.70 FOB. Just as buyers have less cover for second half, processors also do not have any big sales for forwards. Who has to move first – processors or buyers – will determine price range in medium term. Meanwhile, steady buying for nearbys will provide a floor to the market.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand + price trend and any other news + info
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Friday, March 12, 2010
WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT
R.L. “Pete” Turner March 11, 2010
WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT
CROP:
Walnut distribution continues to remain strong with February inshell equivalent shipments at 31,154 tons. My projection was 25,000 tons so my forecast loosing streak has now reach six straight months!
Inshell shipments to China/Hong Kong and Turkey continue at record levels, however, Shelled shipments to Korea, Japan, Germany and Spain are also at all time highs. In addition, domestic shipments are at record levels.
To date, total California Walnut shipments are 310,635 tons (inshell eqv.) compared to 203,982 tons last year; an increase of 52 percent. However, last years shipments are somewhat skewed because of the world financial meltdown, never the less, current shipments remains significant and will continue to drive and keep the market firm right up to new crop.
Many walnut packers have withdrew from the market and will remain off until they are assured their remaining inventories are significant to cover forward commitments. My guess is that some will come up short; however, others will most likely have extra material and will come back on the market as they get furtherer into their crack out.
Now, for what ever it is worth, my forward projections shows the industry will ship 456,405 tons (inshell eqv.) by September 1st. If so, this would give us a carry-over of 37,700 tons, 20,000 tons less than last year. Thus, even if we have another record crop, the industry should still be in a good inventory position going into the new crop year.
Although the qualities of the earlier walnuts were above average, the later material did not fair as well. Many packers are reporting that the Chandler quality really dropped off, especially on the material that was caught in the late October storm. Most of the other varieties seem to have missed most of the damage during this period.
California Walnut Shipment Recap
Month (February, 2010)
2008/09
Year to Date
2009/10
Year to Date
Difference (ytd)
Inshell Pounds (000)
9,663
122,459
8,017
189,540
67,081
55%
-
Shelled Pounds (000)
19,361
129,905
23,671
188,234
58,329
45%
-
Total (Inshell eqv. tons)
26,108
203,982
31,154
310,635
106,653
52%
Market:
Inshell Jumbo Harleys have been trading on both sides of $1.45 with Inshell Chandlers around $1.60. Inshell Howards and Tulare’s are about $0.05 less than the Chandlers.
Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces are solid at $3.95 with most packers asking (and some getting) $4.00. Regular Light Halves and Pieces are trading on both sides of $3.85 and Combination Light Halves and Pieces are firm at $3.50 and above. Medium and Small material are either at or slightly above the Halves and Pieces prices.
It is my projection that the market will most likely mature around the current levels and because of the short inventory situation; I do not see any downward movement until new crop harvest.
So far, the overall weather has been good for the orchards and most of the industry leaders believe we will see another record year from the 2010 crop. However, we will not get much crop feedback until the Handlers issue their “subjective” estimate in late July.
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Pete
WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT
CROP:
Walnut distribution continues to remain strong with February inshell equivalent shipments at 31,154 tons. My projection was 25,000 tons so my forecast loosing streak has now reach six straight months!
Inshell shipments to China/Hong Kong and Turkey continue at record levels, however, Shelled shipments to Korea, Japan, Germany and Spain are also at all time highs. In addition, domestic shipments are at record levels.
To date, total California Walnut shipments are 310,635 tons (inshell eqv.) compared to 203,982 tons last year; an increase of 52 percent. However, last years shipments are somewhat skewed because of the world financial meltdown, never the less, current shipments remains significant and will continue to drive and keep the market firm right up to new crop.
Many walnut packers have withdrew from the market and will remain off until they are assured their remaining inventories are significant to cover forward commitments. My guess is that some will come up short; however, others will most likely have extra material and will come back on the market as they get furtherer into their crack out.
Now, for what ever it is worth, my forward projections shows the industry will ship 456,405 tons (inshell eqv.) by September 1st. If so, this would give us a carry-over of 37,700 tons, 20,000 tons less than last year. Thus, even if we have another record crop, the industry should still be in a good inventory position going into the new crop year.
Although the qualities of the earlier walnuts were above average, the later material did not fair as well. Many packers are reporting that the Chandler quality really dropped off, especially on the material that was caught in the late October storm. Most of the other varieties seem to have missed most of the damage during this period.
California Walnut Shipment Recap
Month (February, 2010)
2008/09
Year to Date
2009/10
Year to Date
Difference (ytd)
Inshell Pounds (000)
9,663
122,459
8,017
189,540
67,081
55%
-
Shelled Pounds (000)
19,361
129,905
23,671
188,234
58,329
45%
-
Total (Inshell eqv. tons)
26,108
203,982
31,154
310,635
106,653
52%
Market:
Inshell Jumbo Harleys have been trading on both sides of $1.45 with Inshell Chandlers around $1.60. Inshell Howards and Tulare’s are about $0.05 less than the Chandlers.
Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces are solid at $3.95 with most packers asking (and some getting) $4.00. Regular Light Halves and Pieces are trading on both sides of $3.85 and Combination Light Halves and Pieces are firm at $3.50 and above. Medium and Small material are either at or slightly above the Halves and Pieces prices.
It is my projection that the market will most likely mature around the current levels and because of the short inventory situation; I do not see any downward movement until new crop harvest.
So far, the overall weather has been good for the orchards and most of the industry leaders believe we will see another record year from the 2010 crop. However, we will not get much crop feedback until the Handlers issue their “subjective” estimate in late July.
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Pete
Monday, March 08, 2010
Pistachios Reduces cancer risk
Berlin, Germany - Eating pistachios daily may reduce the risk of lung and other cancers, according to a US study cited by the German Lung Foundation.
The nuts are a rich source of gamma-tocopherol, a form of vitamin E and, as such, an antioxidant. Antioxidants are substances thought to protect cells from damage that can be caused by molecules known as free radicals. This protection could help prevent cancer from developing, the foundation said.
It pointed out, however, that pistachios had a high fat content and eating large quantities of them could cause weight gain.
The foundation cited a recent study conducted at Texas Woman's University - Houston Centre. Half of the study's participants were given 68 grams of pistachios daily for four weeks in addition to their normal diet. Afterwards, the level of gamma-tocopherol in their bodies was found to be significantly higher than that of the control group.
There is no need to fear a vitamin E overdose, the foundation noted. It said that vitamin E, in contrast to other fat-soluble vitamins, was not stored in the body's fatty tissue, but was quickly excreted by the liver and kidneys.
The nuts are a rich source of gamma-tocopherol, a form of vitamin E and, as such, an antioxidant. Antioxidants are substances thought to protect cells from damage that can be caused by molecules known as free radicals. This protection could help prevent cancer from developing, the foundation said.
It pointed out, however, that pistachios had a high fat content and eating large quantities of them could cause weight gain.
The foundation cited a recent study conducted at Texas Woman's University - Houston Centre. Half of the study's participants were given 68 grams of pistachios daily for four weeks in addition to their normal diet. Afterwards, the level of gamma-tocopherol in their bodies was found to be significantly higher than that of the control group.
There is no need to fear a vitamin E overdose, the foundation noted. It said that vitamin E, in contrast to other fat-soluble vitamins, was not stored in the body's fatty tissue, but was quickly excreted by the liver and kidneys.
Weekly Cashews Update
MAR 6, 2010
There was good activity in the Cashew market in week 9 – mainly for W320 for which prices moved up a few cents to 2.60-2.65 FOB. Reasonable volume was sold for Mar-Jun shipments to European traders (and some to USA as well). Prices for other grades were unchanged i.e. W240 between 2.85-2.90 and W450 between 2.40-2.45 FOB. Vietnam has been selling few cents lower than India. Large processors in both origins are not offering.
Offers for WA RCN were little higher than last couple of weeks but no new business is being done. So far, it seems that crops in all origins will be normal to good. Physical movements will start next week and after that we may see some new trades.
It is to be seen whether the demand for kernels continues to remain strong in the coming weeks – if so, the prices will remain steady. Otherwise they will drift down to the 2.50 level. If prices dip below 2.50, we will see some more covering by traders and probably some new buying by the roasters. We do not see any reason for big decline in kernel prices unless RCN prices come down substantially during Mar/Apr.
As we have been saying for some time, the timing of the next big buying by roasters in Europe & USA needs to be watched closely – if it happens in Mar/Apr, prices will move up a bit. If it gets delayed to May/Jun, prices may drift a little lower from current levels.
Given the present fundamentals, it would be reasonable to expect a floor of 2.40 and a top of 2.80 for W320 for most of 2010. This is a wide range - we do not expect prices to remain at either end for too long (unless something dramatic happens) and it would probably be a good idea for both sellers and buyers to cover portions of their positions at all levels, rather than waiting for the top or the bottom.
For the next few weeks, we expect market to be volatile with periodic bursts of activity when prices will rise or dip depending on kernel buying/selling interest and RCN news & rumours.
Please let me know your views on market situation, demand and price trends and any other information / news.
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
There was good activity in the Cashew market in week 9 – mainly for W320 for which prices moved up a few cents to 2.60-2.65 FOB. Reasonable volume was sold for Mar-Jun shipments to European traders (and some to USA as well). Prices for other grades were unchanged i.e. W240 between 2.85-2.90 and W450 between 2.40-2.45 FOB. Vietnam has been selling few cents lower than India. Large processors in both origins are not offering.
Offers for WA RCN were little higher than last couple of weeks but no new business is being done. So far, it seems that crops in all origins will be normal to good. Physical movements will start next week and after that we may see some new trades.
It is to be seen whether the demand for kernels continues to remain strong in the coming weeks – if so, the prices will remain steady. Otherwise they will drift down to the 2.50 level. If prices dip below 2.50, we will see some more covering by traders and probably some new buying by the roasters. We do not see any reason for big decline in kernel prices unless RCN prices come down substantially during Mar/Apr.
As we have been saying for some time, the timing of the next big buying by roasters in Europe & USA needs to be watched closely – if it happens in Mar/Apr, prices will move up a bit. If it gets delayed to May/Jun, prices may drift a little lower from current levels.
Given the present fundamentals, it would be reasonable to expect a floor of 2.40 and a top of 2.80 for W320 for most of 2010. This is a wide range - we do not expect prices to remain at either end for too long (unless something dramatic happens) and it would probably be a good idea for both sellers and buyers to cover portions of their positions at all levels, rather than waiting for the top or the bottom.
For the next few weeks, we expect market to be volatile with periodic bursts of activity when prices will rise or dip depending on kernel buying/selling interest and RCN news & rumours.
Please let me know your views on market situation, demand and price trends and any other information / news.
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, March 01, 2010
weekly Cashew Update
FEB 27, 2010
There was some activity in the Cashew market in week 8. Prices were almost the same i.e. W240 between 2.85 and 2.90, W320 between 2.55 and 2.60 and W450 between 2.40 and 2.45 FOB. Off markets and Indian domestic market were quiet – there has been some decline in prices for brokens in the Indian market.
No fresh news on RCN front – Quotes for WA are around 875 C&F for Benin, 725 C&F for IVC, 675-700 C&F for Nigeria for April shipment. As reported earlier, business for Mar / FH Apr shipment was done at higher levels few weeks ago. Until physical movements start, both sellers & buyers not keen to commit additional quantities. For the time being, everything points to normal supplies in all origins.
On the kernel side, there seems to be reasonable (not very big) interest at current levels for Mar-May shipments. It is quite possible that buyers may drop their buying ideas if volume of offers increases but large processors in both origins are not offering and this is providing a floor to the market for the time being.
Some traders are offering SH 2010 deliveries at lower levels - although no trades are reported, this could induce some more selling interest at current levels for nearbys. Buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover. This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation (actual or perceived).
We continue to feel that market is very delicately poised – it could move either way, depending on the timing of the next round of big buying (especially because very little business has been done so far for second half shipments). Reduced liquidity means more volatility – slight increase in selling or buying interest can tip the market.
If the processors decide to sell for SH before buying RCN, we could see prices come off from current levels (for kernels as well as RCN). On the other hand, if buyers need to buy for SH in the next 4-6 weeks, we will see market stabilising around current levels. This would keep RCN prices steady and could lead to higher kernel prices in the second half.
In the short term, market has a soft bias due to slow buying + impending new crops. In the medium term, there is potential for some increase in prices in the latter part of the year if demand grows with lower prices. External factors will continue to have increasing impact on demand and market trend.
Please let me know your comments on current situation, views & forecast of demand + market trend and any other news & info
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
There was some activity in the Cashew market in week 8. Prices were almost the same i.e. W240 between 2.85 and 2.90, W320 between 2.55 and 2.60 and W450 between 2.40 and 2.45 FOB. Off markets and Indian domestic market were quiet – there has been some decline in prices for brokens in the Indian market.
No fresh news on RCN front – Quotes for WA are around 875 C&F for Benin, 725 C&F for IVC, 675-700 C&F for Nigeria for April shipment. As reported earlier, business for Mar / FH Apr shipment was done at higher levels few weeks ago. Until physical movements start, both sellers & buyers not keen to commit additional quantities. For the time being, everything points to normal supplies in all origins.
On the kernel side, there seems to be reasonable (not very big) interest at current levels for Mar-May shipments. It is quite possible that buyers may drop their buying ideas if volume of offers increases but large processors in both origins are not offering and this is providing a floor to the market for the time being.
Some traders are offering SH 2010 deliveries at lower levels - although no trades are reported, this could induce some more selling interest at current levels for nearbys. Buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover. This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation (actual or perceived).
We continue to feel that market is very delicately poised – it could move either way, depending on the timing of the next round of big buying (especially because very little business has been done so far for second half shipments). Reduced liquidity means more volatility – slight increase in selling or buying interest can tip the market.
If the processors decide to sell for SH before buying RCN, we could see prices come off from current levels (for kernels as well as RCN). On the other hand, if buyers need to buy for SH in the next 4-6 weeks, we will see market stabilising around current levels. This would keep RCN prices steady and could lead to higher kernel prices in the second half.
In the short term, market has a soft bias due to slow buying + impending new crops. In the medium term, there is potential for some increase in prices in the latter part of the year if demand grows with lower prices. External factors will continue to have increasing impact on demand and market trend.
Please let me know your comments on current situation, views & forecast of demand + market trend and any other news & info
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, February 22, 2010
weekly Cashew Update
FEB 20, 2010
Cashew market continued to be quiet in week 7 – small volume traded to USA & European traders. Prices drifted few cents lower – W240 between 2.85 and 2.90, W320 between 2.60 and 2.65 and W450 around 2.45 FOB. Off markets and Indian domestic market were also quiet – no significant change in prices.
No fresh news on RCN front – conditions in all origins appear to be normal, except for a small delay in arrivals in India. Physical movements from WA wil start SH MARCH and then, we will have an idea of actual pricing. At the moment, prices seem to have stabilised around 850 C&F for Benin and 725 C&F for IVC.
In the coming weeks, many processors will need to make sales to be able to buy RCN whereas some may decide to wait until they have RCN in hand before making sales. Kernel buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover. This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation (actual or perceived).
For the time being, it certainly appears that we are likely to see a market with a soft bias as we go into the main RCN procurement season. But the market is so delicately poised and thin (in terms of liquidity) that it would take very little to tip the scale (in either direction).
Potential for volatility is increased due to changes in cashew market structure and trading pattern i.e. (1) increased importance of unorganized spot market (2) reduced forward positions with the major importing countries (3) risk aversion & reduced risk appetite. Added to this is the increasing impact of external factors like (1) currency movements and (2) financial & economic developments which affect inventory management & demand forecasts.
Overall,, it is becoming more & more difficult to judge the trend and predict (or even guesstimate) how things will move.. For this reason, in our last few reports, we have been advocating caution to avoid being caught on the wrong foot by any sharp moves in either direction.
Would appreciate your views on market situation, forecast of demand + activity + price trend for coming weeks and any other news or information
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew market continued to be quiet in week 7 – small volume traded to USA & European traders. Prices drifted few cents lower – W240 between 2.85 and 2.90, W320 between 2.60 and 2.65 and W450 around 2.45 FOB. Off markets and Indian domestic market were also quiet – no significant change in prices.
No fresh news on RCN front – conditions in all origins appear to be normal, except for a small delay in arrivals in India. Physical movements from WA wil start SH MARCH and then, we will have an idea of actual pricing. At the moment, prices seem to have stabilised around 850 C&F for Benin and 725 C&F for IVC.
In the coming weeks, many processors will need to make sales to be able to buy RCN whereas some may decide to wait until they have RCN in hand before making sales. Kernel buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover. This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation (actual or perceived).
For the time being, it certainly appears that we are likely to see a market with a soft bias as we go into the main RCN procurement season. But the market is so delicately poised and thin (in terms of liquidity) that it would take very little to tip the scale (in either direction).
Potential for volatility is increased due to changes in cashew market structure and trading pattern i.e. (1) increased importance of unorganized spot market (2) reduced forward positions with the major importing countries (3) risk aversion & reduced risk appetite. Added to this is the increasing impact of external factors like (1) currency movements and (2) financial & economic developments which affect inventory management & demand forecasts.
Overall,, it is becoming more & more difficult to judge the trend and predict (or even guesstimate) how things will move.. For this reason, in our last few reports, we have been advocating caution to avoid being caught on the wrong foot by any sharp moves in either direction.
Would appreciate your views on market situation, forecast of demand + activity + price trend for coming weeks and any other news or information
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, February 15, 2010
Weekly Cashews update
FEB 13, 2010
Cashew market was VERY QUIET in week 6. Some business done for W320 around 2.70 FOB by a few processors. No trades reported in other grades. No change in general price level i.e. W240 around 2.95, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55 FOB. With Vietnam on holiday, next week is also expected to be quiet.
Although physical movement of new crop WA RCN will start after a few weeks, offers have come down from a high of US$ 1000 to US$ 900 for Benin, from US$ 850 to US$ 800 C&F for IVC and from US$ 750 to US$ 700 for Nigeria. Some trades reported for all three origins at several levels in this decline but we have to see what prices are actually paid when shipments start. If all crops – India, Vietnam, West Africa – are normal, we can expect some further decline in RCN prices.
For the time being, the kernel market seems to have stabilised. With 70% of the world cashew crop to be traded in next four months, nobody seems to be in a hurry to take any large position. Processors want to see how RCN prices develop in coming weeks before making sales. Buyers are prepared to wait for fresh contracting with roasters and retailers before making new purchases.
If the quiet period continues and if RCN prices decline in next six weeks, kernel prices will drift lower (which would be a good thing as it would induce some buyers to enter the market). But if for some reason, the need to buy kernels emerges before the RCN shipments start, prices might harden a bit.
The change in the buying pattern of the two big markets (USA & EU) and the increased consumption in India & China plus the larger volumes being shipped to other markets are all leading to emphasis on buying & pricing for the short term. This makes it difficult to predict market trend for more than a few weeks and adds to reluctance of processors to make large forward sales unless there is a reasonable cushion to absorb any sudden shocks Uncertainties in the economic situation (leading to changes in cash & inventory management) and currency fluctuations are increasing the potential for volatility.
Overall, it seems that current range is a reasonable level for cashews. Any major move – in either direction – would not be good for the long term health of the cashew business.
Please advise your views on market situation, views & forecast of demand and price trend and any other info / news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Cashew market was VERY QUIET in week 6. Some business done for W320 around 2.70 FOB by a few processors. No trades reported in other grades. No change in general price level i.e. W240 around 2.95, W320 around 2.75, W450 around 2.55 FOB. With Vietnam on holiday, next week is also expected to be quiet.
Although physical movement of new crop WA RCN will start after a few weeks, offers have come down from a high of US$ 1000 to US$ 900 for Benin, from US$ 850 to US$ 800 C&F for IVC and from US$ 750 to US$ 700 for Nigeria. Some trades reported for all three origins at several levels in this decline but we have to see what prices are actually paid when shipments start. If all crops – India, Vietnam, West Africa – are normal, we can expect some further decline in RCN prices.
For the time being, the kernel market seems to have stabilised. With 70% of the world cashew crop to be traded in next four months, nobody seems to be in a hurry to take any large position. Processors want to see how RCN prices develop in coming weeks before making sales. Buyers are prepared to wait for fresh contracting with roasters and retailers before making new purchases.
If the quiet period continues and if RCN prices decline in next six weeks, kernel prices will drift lower (which would be a good thing as it would induce some buyers to enter the market). But if for some reason, the need to buy kernels emerges before the RCN shipments start, prices might harden a bit.
The change in the buying pattern of the two big markets (USA & EU) and the increased consumption in India & China plus the larger volumes being shipped to other markets are all leading to emphasis on buying & pricing for the short term. This makes it difficult to predict market trend for more than a few weeks and adds to reluctance of processors to make large forward sales unless there is a reasonable cushion to absorb any sudden shocks Uncertainties in the economic situation (leading to changes in cash & inventory management) and currency fluctuations are increasing the potential for volatility.
Overall, it seems that current range is a reasonable level for cashews. Any major move – in either direction – would not be good for the long term health of the cashew business.
Please advise your views on market situation, views & forecast of demand and price trend and any other info / news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Monday, February 01, 2010
Weekly Cashews Update
JAN 30, 2010
Week 4 saw the cashew market stabilising – there seems to be a fair amount of interest for W320 for Feb-Apr shipments around 2.70 FOB. Trades during the week have been in a wide range – W240 from 2.90 to 3.00, W320 from 2.70 to 2.80, W450 from 2.50 to 2.55 FOB. Vietnam has been selling at lower levels than India & Brazil (not clear whether it is to have some sales on books before holidays & new crop or in expectation of a good crop & lower RCN prices after the holidays – or both !)
In the last six weeks, W320 came down by 25-30 cents, W240 came down by 10-15 cents and W450 came down by 10-15 cents.. In the last three months, W320 moved up from 2.70-75 to 3.00 and came down to 2.70-2.80 FOB. This volatility has given reasonable trading opportunities but it has not been much of much use to processors or endusers. There has been no apparent reason for this see-saw except the jump in RCN prices in November
SO FAR, all indications are that upcoming crops will be normal. Some trades have been reported for Benin RCN from 1000 to 925 C&F and for Nigeria around 750 C&F. We feel these are speculative trades and do not reflect prices that will actually be paid. There will be a lot of “information” and speculation about crop prospects in Feb-Apr and this will influence kernel price movements.
Offtake in the importing countries in the last quarter seems to have been normal – no big increases or declines. In the next few weeks, we will see whether roasters need to buy more for first half or not. Also, whether they will start buying for second half now or be able to wait till Apr/May when clearer picture of upcoming crops & RCN prices is available.
Overall, everything points to a steady market in a narrow range (except for volatility due to crop “news” + lower volumes of forward positions). No big moves are expected BUT markets tend to move in a way that nobody expects.
Caution is recommended when markets are as quiet as they are now (and there are so many uncertainties – raw material pricing, timing of finished product sales, currency movements)
Please advise your views on market situation, forecast of trend / prospects / activity in coming weeks and any other information + news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Week 4 saw the cashew market stabilising – there seems to be a fair amount of interest for W320 for Feb-Apr shipments around 2.70 FOB. Trades during the week have been in a wide range – W240 from 2.90 to 3.00, W320 from 2.70 to 2.80, W450 from 2.50 to 2.55 FOB. Vietnam has been selling at lower levels than India & Brazil (not clear whether it is to have some sales on books before holidays & new crop or in expectation of a good crop & lower RCN prices after the holidays – or both !)
In the last six weeks, W320 came down by 25-30 cents, W240 came down by 10-15 cents and W450 came down by 10-15 cents.. In the last three months, W320 moved up from 2.70-75 to 3.00 and came down to 2.70-2.80 FOB. This volatility has given reasonable trading opportunities but it has not been much of much use to processors or endusers. There has been no apparent reason for this see-saw except the jump in RCN prices in November
SO FAR, all indications are that upcoming crops will be normal. Some trades have been reported for Benin RCN from 1000 to 925 C&F and for Nigeria around 750 C&F. We feel these are speculative trades and do not reflect prices that will actually be paid. There will be a lot of “information” and speculation about crop prospects in Feb-Apr and this will influence kernel price movements.
Offtake in the importing countries in the last quarter seems to have been normal – no big increases or declines. In the next few weeks, we will see whether roasters need to buy more for first half or not. Also, whether they will start buying for second half now or be able to wait till Apr/May when clearer picture of upcoming crops & RCN prices is available.
Overall, everything points to a steady market in a narrow range (except for volatility due to crop “news” + lower volumes of forward positions). No big moves are expected BUT markets tend to move in a way that nobody expects.
Caution is recommended when markets are as quiet as they are now (and there are so many uncertainties – raw material pricing, timing of finished product sales, currency movements)
Please advise your views on market situation, forecast of trend / prospects / activity in coming weeks and any other information + news
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
US: Walnut sales roar back after tough 2008
California's walnut industry dove off a bridge last year, only to stage a bungee-cord rebound as it now sets sales records month after month, growers and processors report.Growers harvested a record-shattering 2008 crop of 436,000 tons, only to have the market collapse in the face of last year's global credit crisis. Demand came roaring back in the spring, however, and has remained strong since."We had 70,000 tons shipping in the month of November. The highest we ever had before was 48,000 tons," said Pete Turner, chairman of the California Independent Handlers Coalition.This year's recently completed walnut harvest is expected to top 415,000 tons, although industry insiders say the final tally might be closer to 425,000 tons. Either way, it would be California's second-largest crop ever.That, too, is having little effect on prices or demand."The world financial crisis just killed us," Turner said. "But it came back, and we moved the crop."We've almost shipped half the crop already," he added.Increases in demand are coming primarily from Turkey, China and Korea; however, other countries, such as Italy and Germany, also are purchasing record tonnage.Source: recordnet.com
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Pecan crop down but not out
By William Pack - Express-News Between the drought, an untimely freeze and heavy rain in early fall, pecan growers in Texas faced challenges this year that will keep the holidays from being as cheerful as they might have been.
“We were going to have a real good crop and everything went wrong with it,” said Kenneth Pape with Pape Pecan House in Seguin.
His own orchards produced about 30 percent of an average crop.
“First not enough rain, then too much rain,” he said.
But Texas is a big state with a lot of growing areas that make it the third-largest pecan producer in the nation, trailing Georgia and more recently New Mexico, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports.
Growers in South Texas around San Antonio and southwest toward Eagle Pass may have experienced the worst problems because they harvested earliest when rains were the heaviest.
Central and West Texas growers weren't spared rain problems, either, and many also dealt with a spring freeze that weakened early-maturing varieties.
Still, officials said irrigation practices and quality control efforts have kept the pecan count in Texas decent.
The USDA says Texas will produce 60 million pounds of the nut this year, about 14 percent less than two years ago, the last “on year” in the alternating production cycle of pecans.
Cindy Wise, executive vice president of the Texas Pecan Growers Association, said weather issues should not cause severe problems.
“It's actually going pretty good considering all the rain we've had,” said Larry Stein, a Texas A&M University horticulturalist at its extension research center in Uvalde. “It did hinder quality a little, but it didn't ruin it.”
Consumers across Texas may not notice much difference.
H-E-B spokeswoman Dya Campos said that early in the holiday season, pecans were slightly smaller than normal. The grocery chain only gets pecans from Texas growers, Campos said, but H-E-B has gotten about the same amount of pecans as normal from its growers, and the price is about the same as last year.
Pape, who buys and sells pecans throughout Texas, said demand initially was weak but recently, “everyone wants them.”
Even China has started buying pecans in a big way, which has strengthened prices for growers in the past weeks, Pape said.
Prospects for growers will vary depending on when their crop matures and the effects of freezing temperatures and rain.
Some nuts may have received rains at the right time for them mature. But others that already had matured or could not be harvested because of flooded fields may have sprouted or developed other problems that affected their quality.
Tera Macmanus, who with her husband owns Pleasant Valley Pecans near Pleasanton, said she only harvested about a third of her crop because of sprouting problems caused by rains.
“There's not much you can do about it,” Macmanus said. “That's just farming.”
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