Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Weekly Cashews Update

SEP 4, 2010

There was very little activity in the Cashew market in Week 35. Some business was done forW240 around 3.55 and W320 around 3.30 FOB (some buyers / markets paid few cents higher for good quality, guaranteed supplies). Splits were traded around 2.80 FOB. There was steady domestic demand in India for large wholes & brokens – prices were higher than international market.

From Vietnam also, activity was limited but some processors were selling few cents below India. Brazil continues to be quiet – apparently they do not have much to offer from old crop and do not seem to in hurry to sell from the new crop as arrivals are slow – clear picture of crop will be available by Nov.

Spot RCN market in India is firm – small processors (catering to seasonal domestic demand) are paying high prices for small lots of ready goods. Indonesia RCN is being offered around 1500 dollars but buying interest is limited as there is a big disparity with kernel prices. There is a feeling that prices may soften end Sep/early Oct when arrivals pick up (unless kernel prices move up in the meantime). In East Africa, everything looks okay on weather front but it is too early to talk about crop prospects, price levels, shipment commencement.

Kernel outlook for next few weeks seems to be firm. Limited replacement RCN availability + steady demand from one market or the other will mean prices will continue to be high. Processors will be content to sell small volumes at a time. Similarly, buyers will be inclined to buy “as needed” because at current levels (a) they will make losses if they are covering short positions (b) risk appetite for going long is limited in view of uncertainty about future demand.

Long term outlook continues to be cloudy. Inventories seem to be low across the chain due to short crops and hand-to-mouth buying. As discussed earlier, tightness will ease only if supplies increase substantially (this can happen only in mid 2011) or usage / demand falls dramatically (nobody knows when – and if – this will happen). Apart from price of cashews, other factors like prices of other nuts + consumer spending on snacks (and snack nuts in particular) + general economic situation will have a significant impact on usage/demand of cashews. High prices may not necessarily mean big drop in usage if other factors are positive.

This situation will make long term contracting difficult – for buyers because they do want to be caught with long positions at high levels which they cannot move if demand falls and for processors because they do not want to have large forward commitments even at current high levels because the next big RCN procurement possibility will only be in second quarter 2011.

So, although one can have a legitimate doubt about sustainability of the current price levels for the long term, there is very little reason to expect a change in the current range and firm trend in the medium term.

I would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on demand & market trend in coming weeks / months + any information & news

Regards,

Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, August 30, 2010

Weekly Cashews Update

AUG 28, 2010

Cashew market was very quiet in Week 34 but continued to be firm. Some business was done for W240 around 3.50 and W320 around 3.30 FOB. There was no activity with main markets – probably because most Indian processors were away for Onam holidays this week.

No fresh news expected in the RCN market in the near future – spot market likely to remain firm due to limited replacement possibilities. Tanzania shipments likely to be delayed due to increased procurement by local processors. Time gap between RCN buying by India / Vietnam processors is increasing.

There has been a fair amount of activity in the kernel market during Aug and more is expected in Sep/Oct. Generally, business in this period is for long spreads but this year it is uncertain what the trend will be. High prices might keep buyers away from making long term commitments. Also, processors will be reluctant to make big forward sales unless they get a “risk cushion” because there is nothing on the horizon to signal a change in the firm, upward trend.

To answer the question whether the high prices can be sustained (or when the trend will change), we can look at the medium term (past and future).

The price rise in June 2008 (when W320 crossed 3.50) was sudden (in couple of weeks) and the main reason was defaults of large volumes contracted at lower levels. The current price rise (to current level of 3.30 with some upside still left) has been gradual (over a period of more than 15 months) and supported by steady spot / nearby demand (and higher RCN costs).

The price drop in Oct 2008 was caused due to external factor – financial crisis leading to cash crunch, downsizing of inventories & operations in major importing countries. Although current economic situation is not “great”, it is nowhere near the depressing 2008 (although nobody can predict what surprises the financial markets can throw). Excluding this, the only reasons for a price decline (or change in trend) could be (a) big drop in usage or (b) big increase in availability.

A big increase in availability can happen only if Northern crops are good. (but this will be known only in second quarter of 2011). If the crops are good and RCN prices decline, we could see kernel easing to 3.00 level (maybe lower if the kernel prices decline from current levels before the crops start).

A big drop in usage is possible if retailers and large brands move away from cashews due to the high prices. If this move happens end 2010 or early 2011, prices will start drifting lower and could go below the 3.00 level (maybe lower if the reduced usage continues into mid 2011 when the large Northern crops are being collected). If usage does not reduce in FH 2011, prices will continue to be firm.

Since both possibilities are six months away, market can be expected to be firm in the short term with spot / nearby demand lending support at current level. Any large buying in Sep/Oct will lead to another jump in prices. Quiet period in Sep/Oct would mean prices drifting to lower end of the recent range. Overall, uncertain times ahead !!


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, August 23, 2010

Pistachios market update

Most grower/packers have not been doing much business as they feel the market will go up. Harvest is going to be delayed 2+ weeks so earliest shipment will be end of Oct.

I have seen some quotes at the $3.90/lb for R/S US X #1 Pistachios done two weeks ago.

I had another quote at $4.00/lb for R/S US X#1 last week.

It appears that some rumors find this crop to be the on year with estimated pounds around 400 million so bigger than last years, Iran is coming in also with a 400,000,000 pounds. Together you got 800,000,000 pounds usage is about
a billion
it's really does not look a like they have enough to finish a the year.
Paramount claims to be booking lots of business both domestic and export

Weekly cashews update

AUG 21, 2010


Cashew market was quiet in Week 33 but undertone continued to be firm – price range moved up a few cents i.e. W240 between 3.40 to 3.45, W320 between 3.25 to 3.30, W450 was 3.10, SW320 around 3.10 FOB. As we have seen in the last few weeks, some processors sold below this range and some were able to sell few cents higher - the difference between lowest and highest price continued to widen.

RCN market is steady – afloat parcels being traded between 950 to 1000 for IVC and around 1200 for Guinea Bissau. Indonesia new crop being quoted around 1500 C&F with reports of bad weather in some areas. No significant news from East Africa or Brazil.

In last few weeks, there is steady demand from “off markets” which buy spot / nearbys and pay few cents more to regular suppliers for quality and reliability. Traders in USA & EU have also been buying regularly – either to cover short positions or to have something on books to be able to offer when endusers come in to buy. Market seems to be comfortable with this trend – at least for the time being. Forward cover / sale position is limited and as prices continue to climb, the risks are becoming bigger (for everyone in the chain).

Processors expect good demand in the next six weeks and are prepared to wait - each round of buying (so far) has seen some increase in the price range. They are not in hurry to sell because there is no replacement RCN to be bought before Nov (except for limited quantity of high priced Indonesian in Sep/Oct). So, general feeling is that there is room for some price increase in this period.

With the prices being high, the question uppermost in all minds is whether these levels can be sustained next year. The feeling is that if prices are at / higher than current levels at the end of 2010, then the 2011 crop RCN prices will open high and there will be little chance of a significant price decline for quite some time, although there will be periodic dips. We can expect 2011 RCN prices to open at lower levels only if there is a significant decline in kernel prices by end 2010/early 2011.

Prices of many food commodities are higher than recent historical average. As far as nuts are concerned, good demand growth for most nuts and short supply in some nuts is likely to keep prices high (with some dips depending on growers/processors need to sell during periods of low buying interest). Unpredictable external factors can throw surprises but no changes are expected in the fundamental factors for cashews in the near future to change the trend. At some stage, the trend will change (either on fundamentals or sentiment) and we will see realignment of price range but it is difficult to judge when and at what level this will happen.

Comments on market situation + views / forecast of trend for coming weeks + any interesting info or news would be appreciated.



Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Walnut market update August 12, 2010

R.L. “Pete” Turner August 12, 2010

WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT

CROP:

On July 27th the California Walnut Handler Coalition set the “subjective” walnut crop estimate at 473,000 tons, up 8% from last years record crop of 436,000 tons. The official NASS “objective” crop estimated will be out on September 3rd.

The Handlers forecasted the Chandler’s at 186,000 tons, up 12% and Hartley’s at 60,000 tons, down 3%. Tulare’s are up 9% (55,000 tons) and Howards estimated at 53,000 tons, up 10%.

Because of the large crop (projected), many growers/packers feel undersize may be an issue. As an example, some Howard orchards appeared to have higher percentages of smaller walnuts from the second and third sets and it is questionable if they will reach size maturity by harvest.

The weather in the major growing regions continue to be favorable and most believe the quality of this years crop will be above average. In any event, it certainly should be much better than last year’s below quality crop.

Based on the fact that most of California’s other agriculture crops had a late harvest, we are projecting the walnut harvest to be 7-10 days later than normal. However, it usually catches up by the first week in October so should not have too much effect on the mid-varieties (Chandlers, Hartley’s, Tulare’s and Howards’s). However, logistically, it will put pressure on the harvest structure as most of the harvest will come off at the same time.

July shipments were 19,817 tons (inshell equivalent) 6,329 tons less that last July shipments. Total year to date shipments are 444,192 tons compared to 369,401 tons last year. If my August projections of 25,000 tons are correct, we will go into the new crop with a 26,000 ton carry-over. This will give the industry about the same total available tonnage we had last year.

California Walnut Shipments Recap (000)

Month (July) 2008/09 Year to Date 2009/10 Year to Date Percent

Inshell (lbs.) 1,366 172,906 692 205,073 18.6%

Shelled (lbs.) 23,171 257,482 16,978 297,923 15.7%

Total Tons
(Inshell eqv.) 26,146 369,401 19,817 444,192 20.2%



Market:

New crop Inshell business (Chandler) seems to be a little heavier than normal but expect it to taper off as we get closer to the official crop estimate.

The shelled market has firmed somewhat with Chandler Halves and Pieces trading at $3.85 and Regular Light Halves and Pieces at 3.65. Combinations Light Halves and Pieces seem to be firm at $3.40 with Medium and Small material at or slightly less than the Halves and Pieces market.

The walnut handlers will announce their opening prices on September 10th. and expect they will be higher than last years opening.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Kind regards,

Pete

Monday, August 09, 2010

Weekly cashews update

AUGUST 7, 2010

Cashew market was quiet in week 31 – some processors in India & Vietnam sold W320 few cents lower than last week. But in general, price levels were unchanged – W240 between 3.30 and 3.35, W320 around 3.15, W450 between 2.95 and 3.00, SW320 around 3.00, SW360 around 2.80, Splits/Butts between 2.65 and 2.70 FOB. Large processors in both origins were not willing to accept bids at lower levels – either nearbys or forwards.

RCN market was steady with afloat / spot parcels of IVC being traded around 950 and GB around 1150 C&F. It is too early for East Africa news (except that it is more or less certain that Tanzania will increase export duty). Prices for early shipments from Indonesia are very high.

Here are some figures for the main Asian suppliers :

FH 2010 FH 2009
Vietnam Production (est) 300,000 350,000
Vietnam Exports 79,730 69,250
India Production (est) 450,000 500,000
India Imports 347,100 334,700
India Exports 51,930 51,740

RCN imports into India in SH 2010 will be lower due to lower overall availability (estimates of shortage vary from 5 to 10%) and more imports by Vietnam due to a smaller crop there. Kernel exports in SH 2010 are also expected to be lower due to lower availability in both origins PLUS strong domestic demand in India.

Although usage in some markets in 2010 will be lower than 2009, overall usage is unlikely to be affected due to good Asian usage. So, these figures lead us to believe that end of 2010 will see lower than normal inventories – especially in the major importing countries which have been buying few months needs at a time. Supply tightness will ease in SH 2011 only if 2011 Northern crops are good (above normal). OR if there is a big drop in usage in FH 2011 !!

Looking at these fundamental factors + peak consumption in Asia in Aug-Nov + pattern of regular buying by USA & Europe for few months at a time, we can expect good activity in next 2-3 months. There does not seem to be much chance of a price decline in 2010 although there may be small dips when market is quiet. We might see a price decline in 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2011 but that will depend on the 2011 crops and FH 2011 usage. The only other reason for a reversal of current firm trend would be external factors (economic and financial situation) or a big drop in prices of other nuts.

Although we are not overly bullish about the long term (too many variables and change in market structure make it difficult to predict trend beyond a few months) we do feel that market will continue to move around the current levels with possibility of some price increase in the next 2-3 months – any dip in the meantime would be a opportunity to cover part of the needs (at least for next 2-3 quarters).

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand + market trend and any interesting news / information


Regards,
Pankaj N.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Weekly cashews update

JULY 17, 2010
Cashew market was quiet in week 28 but undertone is firm. There is some resistance to higher levels being quoted from India (W240 from 3.25 to 3.30, W320 around 3.10, W450 around 2.95 FOB) but processors do not seem to be willing to sell at lower levels (there is reasonable buying interest few cents below offered levels and stray business was done). Some processors in Vietnam are making occassional sales few cents below India. Brazil sold few cents higher than India – they may not have much to offer. Activity in Indian domestic market is picking up – prices for brokens and large wholes have moved up.
RCN prices moved up a bit with trades for IVC between 900 and 950 C&F and GB around 1150 C&F. There is some concern about the crops in Brazil and Indonesia but we feel that a realistic picture of prospects will be available only in Sep. There is talk of higher export duty on Tanzania RCN.
In last few weeks, there has been a fair amount of business with all markets for Jul-Oct shipments and some business has been done for forwards as well. This seems to indicate current levels are comfortable. BUT, neither the processors or buyers seem to be interested to go out on the limb and take large positions. Processors do not have any replacement RCN available – so, they are reluctant to sell large volume at one price and be left with little to sell if prices move up. Buyers do want to build large positions as there is uncertainty about demand & usage in the main markets. Prices for some other nuts have softened recently and this is adding to buyers reluctance.
For the next 2-3 months, market movement will depend on kernel buying interest as there is no fresh RCN to be purchased. There is nothing on the horizon to alter prospects for market trend – regular activity will keep the market steady and if there is any need for large buying, we will see a spike in prices. We might see a dip in prices if there are several quiet weeks but large or sustained decline seems to be unlikely in 2010. Peak for 2010 is still to be seen.
It is very difficult to judge trends for 2011 because there are so many uncertainties & variables (fragile financial & economic situation in developed economies is adding to the uncertainty). Overall, it certainly seems that a big decline in cashew price range is possible only if there is a sharp & large decline in usage in both USA & EU which seems unlikely or if there is a big increase in supply which could happen in SH of 2011 (at the earliest).
Would appreciate your comments on current situation, views and forecast of trend & prospects and any other news + information.
Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Tuesday, July 13, 2010


R.L. “Pete” Turner July 12, 2010

WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT

CROP:

The June shipments of 22,810 tons (inshell equivalent) finally hit my forecast and if my next two months forecast of 52,000 tons are close, the industry will carry in less than 20,000 tons into the 2010 crop. This means that even if the crop is 30,000 tons higher than last year, the total available inventory will be several tons less.

California Walnut Shipments Recap (000)

Month (June) 2008/09 Year to Date 2009/10 Year to Date Percent

Inshell (lbs.) 3,688 171,540 1,433 204,381 19.4%

Shelled (lbs.) 26,332 234,311 19,265 280,945 19.9%

Total Tons
(Inshell eqv.) 30,781 343,255 22,810 424,375 23.6%

As you can see, year to date shipments have reached 424,375 tons vs. 343,255 tons at this time last year, up 24%. The percentage will decrease as I expect forward shipments (July/August) to be less than last years.

At this date, the 2010 walnut crop looks very good, not only in tonnage and nut size, but in quality as well. During the past few weeks, I have toured (and interviewed growers) in five growing regions (Stanislaus, Linden, Sacramento, Yuba City and Chico) and the census is, a large crop, good nut sizes (except Howards) and excellent quality. Surveying of these areas has reinforced the outlook on the crop size, especially with the tonnage conditions observed in the Chico area. However, every grower cautioned that we still have two months to go and weather could have a negative impact on all of the above.

The Packers will come out with their “subjective” estimate on July 27th, and based on history, the “subjective” estimate usually comes close to the “objective” crop estimate issued by the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) the first week of September.

As reported earlier, most of California’s row and tree crop harvest have been later than normal; and most walnut growers believe the start of the harvest will be 7 to 10 days late.

Inshell shipments to the Middle East (Turkey, U.A.E, Egypt, and Israel etc.) have reached 60.7 million pounds 55 percent more than last year to date. The same can be said for China/Hong Kong with 43 million pounds this year vs. 27 million last year.

The big question is…will they be buyers this year? If they are, and my opinion they will be, we could see a heavy early demand not only for Hartley’s, Chandler and Howards, but for early varieties as well. Reports of some early sales activity helps support this position.


Market:

Inshell business has been very quite due to available inventories and to my knowledge, very few new sales have taken place in the past few months.

As expected, Shelled prices have weakened somewhat with Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces in the $3.85 range, with Regular Light Halves and Pieces trading at 3.65. Combinations Light Halves and Pieces seem to be firm at $3.40 with Medium and Small material slightly less than the Halves and Pieces prices. The market on Light Halves is being reported in the $4.60 range.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Pete

Photos taken June 29, 2010 Chico area.







Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Weekly Cashews Update

JULY 3, 2010
There has been a fair amount of activity in the Cashew Market in weeks 25 & 26. But hardly any movement in prices. Business was done for W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.80 FOB. Prices in domestic market moved up a bit (more for the brokens).
RCN market was also steady with business being done for afloat parcels of IVC around 900 and Guinea Bissau around 1125 C&F India. There are offers at lower prices from origin for limited quantities of lower yield RCN but processors are not showing interest since better quality afloat parcels are available at reasonable prices.
There is nothing new to say about the fundamentals. RCN supply for 2010 is more or less known within a 5 percent range (timely conversion to kernels is likely to be an issue). On the demand side, trend of regular buying for nearbys is likely to continue (due to uncertainty of demand trends + general economic situation, no large forward positions are being taken).
We do not have much information on actual offtake trends and demand forecasts for cashews (and nuts in general) in the main importing countries + would appreciate any information you can provide.
As discussed earlier, peak consumption period in most markets will start in a few weeks. If offtake is normal (or even little bit lower), prices will continue to move in current range (downside is limited as supply is lower than last year). If spot / nearby offtake is more than expected, we could see prices moving up in Aug-Oct which would mean upward pressure on RCN prices in the last quarter.
Normally, Southern crop RCN is traded higher than Northern crop because of better quality & much smaller quantity. This year there is some uncertainty about next year contracting which normally happens in Aug-Oct. If the contracting is for lower volume / period and if the spot / nearby demand in that period is also slow, processors will be in less of a hurry to buy Southern crops. This may reduce the premium for the Southern crop (although there are some processors – especially those who cater to Indian market – who rush to buy early arrivals).
Overall, most people expect market to move in the current range for next few months with some possibility of a price increase in Aug-Oct (depending on factors mentioned above). There is very little chance of a big decline in prices this year. The only bearish factor is the economic situation – if things worsen in next few months, it will adversely impact the demand forecast + market sentiment + ability / willingness to take large positions.
Please advise your comments on market situation, views on prospects for coming weeks / months and any other news / information.
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Pistachio growers keep close watch

Pistachio growers keep close watch
Jul 2, 2010 8:24 AM, By Cary Blake, Farm Press Editorial Staff
It is too early to predict the exact size of the 2010 California pistachio crop. California grower Brian Blackwell predicts an average crop; perhaps in the 350-million-plus pound range.
California grower Brian Blackwell believes the above-average rainfall and cool temperatures this spring are a double-edged sword for the 2010 Western pistachio crop.

JIM GRAHAM, Cochise Groves, LLC, predicts a 4,000-pound per acre 2010 pistachio crop on his 160-acre ranch in Cochise, Ariz. Graham hopes for good grower prices since pistachio stocks are low and worldwide demand remains strong.
�We don�t know how many (shell) blanks we�ll have due to the lousy weather during bloom time,� Blackwell said. �We had plenty of winter chill hours, but the problem was the unusual high rain and wind events. We don�t know yet if the crop was adversely affected by the weather. Kernel development should begin in early July.�
Blackwell grows pistachios in Kern and Tulare counties in the southern San Joaquin Valley. He owns and operates his own pistachio farm, Blackwell Farms. Blackwell also wears the hat of president of the Blackwell Farming Co., where he manages pistachio orchards for other landowners.
Blackwell is chairman of the Western Pistachio Association.
It is too early to predict the exact size of the 2010 California pistachio crop. Yet Blackwell predicts an average crop; perhaps in the 350-million-plus pound range.
The 2009 crop initially looked promising � in the 400-million pound range � until spring weather tempered yields.
Kern County received more rain this spring than the last five to six years, Blackwell says. About 7 inches fell in the Bakersfield area. The area has averaged 3.5 to 4 inches in the spring annually over the last five years.
�We received almost double the rain, but it was the timing of the rain which created problems,� Blackwell said. �The rain started in April and fell about every 10 days. In some fields up north I have already applied three fungicide sprays (as of mid-June); that is virtually unheard of in our area. The rains pounded us through the bloom period.�
Pistachios are pollinated by pollen carried in the wind, not by bees.
The extra moisture pushed Blackwell into pest control mode.
�There is a lot of feed out there for insects, gophers and squirrels,� Blackwell said. �We are spending a tremendous amount of time trying to control these in our orchard. We are getting ready to put on an insecticide for stink bugs,� Blackwell said. �We�ll apply some foliar nutrients at the same time.�
Despite the heavy rains, Blackwell purchased water for the pistachio crop on the open market.
�You do what you have to do to make sure you�re covered,� Blackwell said. �I am covered, but not because of the allocation through the California State Water Project. I had to buy expensive water to put on my crops.�
Bob Beede, University of California Cooperative Extension (UCCE) farm advisor, Kings County, says the overall southern San Joaquin Valley pistachio crop load varies tremendously by orchard.
�Mature orchards which bore heavily in 2009 are understandably light in 2010,� Beede said. �Young orchards unexpectedly low in crop load last year have an abundant crop this year in most cases.�
Pest control advisers and growers are reporting misshaped shells in young trees, Beede says, possibly caused by a temporary deficiency of calcium during the cool weather and its impact on the translocation of macronutrients.
Beede suggests the 2010 California pistachio crop could fall in the 350-375 million pound range. The 350-million pound threshold is considered average, but the number is a moving target due to increased pistachio plantings.
�The new average could easily become 375 million pounds once all the young trees begin to bear,� Beede said. �We anticipate young trees will make a significant contribution to the 2010 pistachio crop, even with the relatively light crop in many mature orchards due to alternate bearing.�
About 95 percent of all pistachios are the Kerman variety.
Beede suggests that growers keep a sharp eye out for late-season plant bugs. Conversations with crop consultants on pest management timing are critical. Measuring nitrogen and potassium level contents relative to the crop load is important.
Beede recommends combining fertilizer applications and irrigations to top off the trees to optimize them for kernel fill beginning late June.
Arizona pistachio grower Jim Graham is breathing easier following several late frost scares in early May. Early morning temperatures on the orchard exterior plunged to 26 F. The critical cold temperature for pistachios is 29 F on Graham�s farm located at 4,300 feet above sea level. Wind machines spared any crop loss.
Graham and wife Ruth own and operate Cochise Groves, LLC, a 160-acre pistachio ranch in Cochise located in the Sulphur Springs Valley in Cochise County.
Pistachios are an alternate-bearing crop. 2010 will be an off-year for most Western pistachio growers yet Graham�s trees are in the on-year cycle. Weather events can switch the internal production clock in trees; even on an orchard-by-orchard basis.
�I�m pretty happy with how my crop looks right now,� Graham said. �It is a good crop, but not my largest crop ever. I would be delighted to get a 4,000-pound per acre yield.�
His largest crop was 5,000-pounds-plus/acre in some orchards in 2002, the year following a hard freeze wiped out the entire crop.
Graham�s goal is to achieve a 4,000-pound crop in on-years and 2,000 pounds in the off-year. He is utilizing pruning and fertilization toward that goal.
The upbeat Graham is excited by potential grower crop prices. Worldwide pistachio stocks are down while demand is strong. �I�d like to see the price for premium split inshell No. 1 grade pistachios approach the $2/pound range,� Graham said.
U.S. pistachios are grown in California, Arizona and New Mexico. California growers produce about 98 percent of the total crop.
The Western Pistachio Association represents growers across the tri-state region. Executive Director Richard Matoian, Fresno, Calif., is hearing a mixed bag of crop projections from members ranging from a good crop to a little light.
Matoian said, �As positive as the rain was this spring, growers like rain, but not this time of the year (spring).�
The rain and cool spells could delay harvest this fall. Motoian said the crop was running seven to 10 days behind (mid-June).
�Growers would rather have an early maturing crop than a late maturing crop,� Matoian said. �A later crop has more potential for insect damage. Fall rains can reduce crop quality.�
Pistachio acreage in the three-state pistachio belt is about 210,000 acres, including about 125,000 bearing acres and about 85,000 non-bearing acres.
A big push in pistachio tree plantings from 2004-2008 included up to about 25,000 acres annually.
Plantings have slowed to the 5,000 acre/year range. Matoian believes lower plantings are tied to available water uncertainties in some areas plus some market uncertainty.
Pistachio exports five years ago totaled about 35 percent of total shipments. Exports today, Matoian says, account for about 65 percent of total shipments.
Craig Kallsen, UCCE farm advisor, Kern County, says the number of heat units this summer will ultimately determine whether the pistachio harvest will be on time or late this fall.
email: cblake@farmpress.com

Monday, June 28, 2010

Weekly Cashews Update

JUNE 26, 2010
Cashew market continued to be steady in week 25. Prices were unchanged i.e. W240 around 3.15, W320 around 2.95, W450 around 2.80 FOB and undertone was firm. There was reasonable buying interest and stray sales were made to some markets (below & above the levels mentioned).
RCN market was also steady with business being done for afloat parcels of IVC around 900 and Guinea Bissau around 1125 C&F India. Traders do not seem to be in hurry to sell as there is not much quantity left in origins now. Small processors – exporting and non exporting – are buying small lots when they need to, content to let traders hold inventory.
Supply shortage – although estimates vary from 100,000 to 200,000mt – is more or less factored into the current price range. In the next 2-3 months, price trend will be determined by demand signals and timing of any large buying. As we have seen for more than a year now, there will be periodic bursts of activity on buying side – mainly for prompt and nearby shipments. More so because the next few months are peak consumption period in almost all markets. This will probably support market in the middle of the current range.
Kernel inventories are low – in importing as well as processing countries. Although there may be adequate RCN for processing till the Southern crops start in Oct, all of it may not be converted to kernels at the usual speed. This will mean periodic tightness in supply in next few months, adding to the pressure on spot prices.
Even when crops are normal, Southern crops are traditionally traded at higher levels – this will mean reluctance amongst processors to sell kernels unless they get reasonable price based on replacement cost. Having seen a steady and regular demand for prompt & nearby deliveries, they will not be in a hurry to sell. Increases in processing & transport costs and lower kernel yield will also add to the increase in selling ideas / parity levels.
Except for Almond prices – which came down in June – prices for all other nuts continue to be firm despite lack of activity. We have to see what impact this will have on offtake in SH 2010 and forecast for FH 2011.
If the large importing regions – USA & Europe NEED to buy additional volume in third quarter for 2010 shipments, we could see the current price range being breached. But if the uncertain economic situation leads to retailers managing sales within what they have already contracted for 2010, we could see market continue in current range for rest of the year with periodic spikes and dips. Prices dropping below the current range seems unlikely unless something dramatic like Sep/Oct 2008 happens again.
Would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on prospects for coming months + any interesting news or information
Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Weekly cashew update

MAY 29, 2010

There was limited activity in Cashew Market in Week 20. Business was done for W240 around 3.20, W320 around 3.00, W450 around 2.80, WS/WB around 2.50 and LP around 1.70 FOB. Overall, there has been no change in prices (except for an increase in prices for broken grades) despite very quiet market during whole of May.

RCN market is very delicately poised. This week, it seems to be taking a breather after the rise of abt 150 dollars a ton (equivalent to approx 30-32 cents per lb of kernels) in the last four weeks. There is resistance at the higher levels because of quiet kernel market (also, kernel prices have not picked up to the extent of rise in RCN prices). There is not much unsold RCN in West Africa but traders (and processors who sell RCN when trading realizes more than processing) are holding stocks (afloat and in origin). Number of stock holders is larger than normal and so, holding capacity is increased. If they see increase in kernel demand / prices, they can afford to hold on but if the kernel market remains quiet in June, they may be forced to reduce prices to move stocks.

Due to the various uncertainties discussed earlier (recent currency volatility is adding to these uncertainties), stakeholders on both sides (processing countries and importing countries) are reluctant to take large positions, especially for forwards. They are content to sell/buy for prompt and nearby deliveries when needed. This trend is likely to continue as we move into the peak Asian consumption months from August, resulting in continued volatility.

In view of uncertainty of demand trend at higher levels, buyers do not want to cover forward requirements unless the price is at / lower than spot price. Since the RCN prices are high and there is limited replacement available, processors do not want to sell large volumes for longer spreads unless they have a reasonable cushion to absorb further increase in RCN price. All this is leading to reduced liquidity. Small changes in periodic supply push and demand pull will have significant impact on prices.

Considering all factors, we continue to feel that market will move in current range of 2.80 to 3.00 FOB for some time. There is a possibility of a breakout above the range if there is good demand in next 8 weeks. On the other hand, we may see lower prices at the end of the year if the pattern of limited buying continues through the next 3-4 months.

Would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on prospects & trends for coming weeks + any other info / news

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, May 10, 2010

Weekly Cashews Update

MAY 8, 2010

Cashew market was quiet in Week 18. Very limited volumes were traded compared to the activity in previous two weeks (following the pattern of past several months). No change in prices – W240 around 3.15, W320 between 2.90 and 2.95, W450 around 2.75 FOB. Undertone was steady to firm.

RCN market is also steady with a firm undertone. IVC is being traded in 800-830 range depending on the quality. Some early sales of GB have been made around 1025 C&F. The number of players in RCN market has increased this year resulting in a wider price range. At the higher levels, buying interest is limited. Arrivals of WA RCN into India & Vietnam has just started. The fact of a short Benin crop has been factored into the supply situation but there will continue to be some uncertainty about other WA origins until Jun/Jul. Although there may not be big change in overall availability, market will be influenced by rumours and perception of crop prospects. RCN pricing will depend on this and the trend / pattern of kernel activity in next 8 weeks. If kernel market is quiet, processors will be reluctant to buy at higher prices.

There is nothing on the horizon to change view on kernel market prospects for coming weeks & months. The pattern of periodic activity will keep the market swinging in a range. Lower processing & shipments in Apr/May might lead to supply tightness in USA & Europe for some time – hopefully this should ease in third quarter (unless the delays turn into defaults).

If there is no large buying NEED in the next 6-8 weeks, we might see some selling pressure (and lower prices) in the third quarter. But if any significant volume needs to be bought in this period, prices will continue to remain around the higher end of the current range (meaning no respite in RCN prices) and probably move up in third quarter when the Asian (esp. Indian) demand will also be high.

Regards
Pankaj N. Sampat

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

USDA to buy up to $18 million in cranberries to help reduce surplus in Wisconsin, other states

By Associated Press
5:02 AM CDT, May 5, 2010
WISCONSIN RAPIDS, Wis. (AP) — The federal government will buy up to $18 million worth of cranberries to help reduce the surplus in Wisconsin and other states.Growers of the tart fruit saw record harvests in the last few years. That led to supply that outstripped demand, resulting in lower prices and surplus inventories.So the U.S. Department of Agriculture will buy excess cranberries for use in food-assistance programs.The next step is for the USDA to determine which farmers' crops it will buy. Wisconsin growers should be well represented among the beneficiaries because the state produces about 60 percent of the nation's crop.Tom Lochner is with the Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association. He tells Wisconsin Public Radio the USDA supply will be used for cranberry sauce and juice.___On the Net:Wisconsin State Cranberry Growers Association: http://www.wiscran.org/___Information from: Wisconsin Public Radio, http://www.wpr.org

Monday, May 03, 2010

Weekly cashews update

MAY 1, 2010

Cashew prices moved up a few cents in Week 17. Business was done for W240 from 3.05 to 3.15, W320 around 2.90, W450 from 2.70 to 2.75 FOB. Most of the business was for May-Jul/Aug but some business was done for last quarter as well. Volumes traded were not very large but all markets have been buying some quantities in the last two weeks.

RCN shipments from IVC are slow due to various logistic problems. Prices there have gone up in the last two weeks. Opening prices for Guinea Bissau RCN are higher than expected. Supply does not seem to be a problem but the market is influenced by sentiments, increase in number of small buyers, disruptions in flow, fear of being left with inadequate rawmaterial, etc. Even if prices are unworkable, there is always someone in the market and this is providing support to the market. Unless kernel demand picks up during May, processors will find it difficult to buy big quantities at these higher prices.

On the kernel side, buyers seem to be content with buying when they need. They do not seem to have confidence to cover large volumes – they have been covering small quantities at all levels. Some buyers have started buying for forward positions but quantities have been limited. Asian markets are usually quiet during this period – activity will pick up in few weeks and will peak in third quarter. Asian markets traditionally buy spot / nearby and this leads to spikes in activity and prices.
Prices of almost all other nuts are higher than historical average – in some cases, the increase is much more than cashews. Overall nut usage in the two main cashew importing regions (USA & EU) may not be much different from last few years - there might be a shift in individual items depending on availability and extent of price changes. Change in buying pattern will keep the market volatile – decision making becomes difficult.

Our feeling is that unless RCN prices come down in May/Jun, downside for kernel market is limited. Upside will depend on when & how much buyers need to buy for second half deliveries.

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand and price trends and any other news or information


Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, April 26, 2010

Weekly cashews update

APR 24, 2010

After a quiet beginning, there was some activity in the market in the second half of week 16. Some quantities were traded to USA (and a little to Europe and other markets as well). Prices moved up a few cents with sales for W240 at 3.05-3.10, W320 at 2.80-2.85, W450 at 2.70-2.75 FOB. Splits / Butts moved up to about 2.35 FOB but offers were scarce. Indian domestic market continued to be quiet.

RCN market is steady. First shipments of WA RCN have started arriving in India. Most of the Benin crop has been sold. IVC is trading around US$ 800. In March, most of the sales were to Vietnam but now both India & Vietnam are buying. There have been some speculative sales by RCN traders for GB but real situation will not be known till mid May. There is a reasonable quantity of RCN still to be traded from IVC + GB (and its smaller neighbours) but it is difficult to judge the price trend.

On the demand side, first quarter offtake seems to have been good (although there are reports of declines in some markets). Outlook for coming months is not clear but there are no reasons to expect any decline. If prices for other nuts do not come down, retailers in USA & Europe might be inclined to put more cashews & mixed nuts/dried fruits on the shelves to meet the nut category demand. Inventories are low (and might be tighter in Jun/Jul due to lower shipments from origin in Apr/May). Some buyers have been buying portion of their forward requirements in the last few weeks, but many buyers continue to buy for nearbys only as they do not see anything on horizon for prices to increase too much.

On the supply side, despite crop concerns in some areas & delays in some others, overall availability for 2010 seems to be comfortable. But due to the uncertainty of RCN prices, processors are reluctant to make any large forward sales. Unless the RCN prices come down in May/Jun, they will not be inclined to take on any big commitments – they will continue to sell small volumes when they have to because the regular demand will keep things moving.

Periodic dips have been opportunities for buyers to cover some volume and periodic spikes have been inducing processors to make some sales. This trend is likely to continue and keep the market within current range until we reach a tipping point – either a big change in RCN prices or a big bunch of buying or selling interest in a short period.

Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, April 12, 2010

Weekly cashew update

APR 10, 2010

Despite people being back after long weekend, cashew market continued to be quiet in Week 14. Prices came down a few cents e.g. W240 around 3.05, W320 around 2.85, W450 around 2.65 FOB but there was not much selling interest at the lower levels. Indian domestic market was quiet due to tax changes in two major consuming states but prices were high (Splits equiv to 2.60 and LWP equiv to 2.25 FOB !!)

IVC RCN prices came down by 30-40 dollars a ton – current range is US$ 800-825 C&F. Vietnam buyers seem to have reduced their buying speed and large Indian buyers do not seem to be keen to buy until they see some activity in kernels. It is reported that quality of IVC RCN this year is better (at least what is coming in now).

In the kernel market also, the waiting game continues. Everybody seems to be content with making small purchases & sales when required. Nobody wants to take large positions. This trend is likely to continue for sometime and will result in the periodic bursts of activity (and spike or dip in prices) that we have seen every few weeks in last several months.

Fundamentally, there seems to be a good balance between demand and supply (although some regions may have shortages and kernel shipments in second quarter may be lower). We have always felt that cashew market is more pushed by supply rather than pulled by demand. Unless there is a big change on supply side, there will be no “breakout” from the price range. Due to change in market dynamics – discussed earlier – there is increasing emphasis on short term buying. Consequently, price range is becoming wider & volatility is becoming higher.

Based on available information, we feel that for the rest of the year market will move in a 2.60-2.90 range. In the lower half of the range, selling interest from origins will be limited to nearbys (unless RCN prices come down dramatically in May/June). If this does not happen, there is a reasonable chance of kernel prices being near the higher end of the range in the second half.

Would appreciate your comments on market situation + views on demand & market trend + any other info & news


Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

No macadamia bumper crop this year

Most affected orchards have shown some recovery from the significant tree and limb loss experienced in May 2009. However hot, dry and dusty conditions around flowering had a negative influence on the 2010 Australian macadamia crop.The industry forecasting model predicts a crop of 41,600 MT of nut in shell (NIS) or an equivalent of 12,220 MT of kernel according to the peak industry body for the Australian macadamia industry, the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS).The crop estimate comes from modelling developed over 7 years by the AMS and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development & Innovation. The model works on yield curves developed from historical records and incorporating tree number and age, varieties, climatic data for the growing season and pest and disease incidence.The model has 23 years data from which to estimate the crop and from 2001 to 2007 had an overall average error of 8.2%. With increasingly extreme weather conditions in 2008 and 2009 at the limits of the data set, the average error is now 12.4%The Australian Macadamia Handlers group who represent over 90% of NIS collected from growers in Australia, have stated that they believe the model prediction is at the very top end of expectations and the more likely crop size is 37,500t. This figure is based on surveys of their suppliers and on past delivery patterns and volumes.These figures are compiled by the AMS and the Handlers Group in the interests of providing the market with accurate, credible and timely production information.The AMS and the Handlers Group will update the crop estimates at the end of June and August once actual delivery figures become available in collaboration with participating processors. A final figure for the season will be released in December 2010.The unfavourable conditions at flowering affected the crop in the northern NSW and south east Queensland areas.“The most predominant variety in the industry had variable nut set between localities although some other varieties are not badly affected” said AMS CEO Jolyon Burnett. “The Bundaberg region was not affected by this problem”.Two seasons of short crop have had an impact on worldwide inventories according to Burnett and demand is strong despite a challenging exchange rate.

Weekly cashew update

APR 3, 2010


Week 13 was very quiet in the Cashew market due to short working week plus general reluctance of processors and buyers to take positions. Undertone was steady and stray trades reported without any change in prices i.e. W240 around 3.10, W320 around 2.90, W450 around 2.70 FOB. Indian domestic market – activity and prices – have picked up in the last two weeks.

RCN prices are steady / slightly soft at the end of the week. Arrivals are better in some areas but due to competition among larger number of players in each origin, prices have remained more or less steady. Current levels are around US$ 1000 for Benin and around US$ 850 for IVC.

Reasonable volumes have been sold to USA & Europe in the last few weeks and if there is no fresh buying by roasters, traders may be able to refrain from additional purchases for some time. This might lead to slow drifting of prices (especially if RCN arrivals pick up). Some processors have reduced their selling ideas a few cents this week and others may follow if there is no demand for couple of weeks. But sentiment could change if (a) any large buying interest comes in before the RCN arrivals improve or (b) the RCN prices do not decline despite lack of kernel activity.

On the supply side, there can be no finality about crop size till June. Reports about possible shortage are causing concern amongst processors who do not want to take risk of selling any big volumes. There is definitely a delay in arrivals and this will probably create a squeeze in supplies for few weeks due to reduced shipments in Apr/May. If crops are okay, there will be good volume to be sold for SH 2010 but the pricing will depend on buying time.

On the demand side also, the approach is cautious. Despite some positives – improvement in general economic situation in most countries, higher prices for all nuts, etc – there is some concern about demand & price trend. So, buyers are reluctant to commit large volumes or long spreads. But at some stage, they will have to buy to avoid being caught without adequate product when it is needed.

The cautious approach on both sides coupled with the change in market shares means more activity for spot & nearbys leading to increased volatility. Selling and buying strategies will have to adapt to this change – averaging seems to the best option in uncertain times.

Please let us know your comments on market situation, views on prospects for coming weeks / months and any other info / news



Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, March 22, 2010

Hazelnut prices reach a peak



ISTANBUL – Daily News with wiresSunday, March 21, 2010The scarcity of hazelnuts in the Turkish market reportedly raises prices. Weather conditions are expected to shape the price of hazelnuts for the upcoming period, say sector representatives. Also, the advent of high hazelnut prices brings forth new rival countries, according to the Hazelnut Promotion Group
Hazelnut prices in Turkey, which are determined by free market conditions according to the new strategy, have recently reached a record level for the year.
Giresun quality fat hazelnut, which was traded at 3.30 Turkish Liras per kilogram in September, is now going for 4.90 liras, Anatolia News Agency reported Friday. Levant quality hazelnuts, which have a lower level of fat than the Giresun quality hazelnuts but a higher level of fat than those grown in the other countries, rose from 3.20 liras to 4.70 liras. The Turkish Grain Board has not made purchases this year.
The prices have reportedly started to rise with the impact of the scarcity of hazelnuts in the market. The prices are expected to rise further with claims that the unexpected snow in March may result in a possible frost, reducing the yield.
The hazelnut yield is low this year, said Mehmet Cirav, president of the assembly at the Trabzon Commodity Exchange in the Black Sea region. Prices have reached the peak level of this season because producers have scarce product at hand these months, he said.
Noting that the producers with hazelnuts in stock do not want to give their products to the market while prices are rising, Cirav said: “In such a situation, the producers have greater expectations. And the prices increase.”
The snow in Trabzon this month has not affected the hazelnut supply at present, Cirav said. “But it may affect the prices in a speculative way. Hazelnuts may be damaged in case of agricultural frost during the night. The rise in current prices stems from the scarcity of the hazelnuts that producers have now.”
Weather impact
Özer AkbaÅŸlı, chairman of the agricultural chamber in the Black Sea city of Giresun, also expressed the scarcity of hazelnuts in the market, adding that the Turkish Grain Board has also not put its hazelnuts on the market. “Therefore, the prices have risen. Farmers still have hazelnuts.”
Merchants are raising prices to obtain hazelnuts, according to Cirav. “We already expected this rise. In the upcoming days, the prices may rise further due to the negative weather conditions experienced in the east and west of the Black Sea. I do not want to make a prediction but I expect the prices to increase further to a certain degree.”
A recent front in the region has damaged hazelnut fields at an altitude of 500 and 750 meters, AkbaÅŸlı said, also referring to snow. “The Meteorological Service has issued a warning about agricultural frost for Giresun, Ordu and Trabzon. A problem in these regions may significantly affect the yield for next year.”
Akbaşlı said it is not possible to predict at present how much a possible frost would affect hazelnut prices. However, he also expressed some other possible threats for hazelnut, such as wind and temperature till August.
“How frost will affect the Black Sea region and overall yield is important. According to last year’s hazelnut flower calculation, the expected amount was around 430,000. The expectation for this year is, on the other hand, around 630,000. If the yield falls below last year, prices may hit the ceiling. In this case, the hazelnuts of the Turkish Grain Board become very valuable. Through a worldwide demand, the board may compensate its losses of millions of dollars.”
Competition warms up globally
Meanwhile, the Hazelnut Promotion Group, or FTG, said on March 11 that the formation of high hazelnut prices despite the constant rise in hazelnut production lately brings forth new rival countries. The world’s hazelnut production, which was nearly 250,000 tons in 1960s, has surpassed 1 million tons today, as Turkey could not limit its plantation area, the group said.
“Hazelnut production began to decline in developed countries such as Italy and Spain between 1995 and 2007 period while it remained same in the United States. However, in Azerbaijan and Georgia, the production adopted an uptrend in that time,” read statement by FTG.
“Georgia’s hazelnut production, which stood at 800 tons in 1995, has reached 9,250 tons, a more than 11-fold increase within 12 years. In Azerbaijan, the situation is quite same as its hazelnut production increased to 17,500 tons from 1,500 tons between 1995 to 2007 period. Hazelnut production in Azerbaijan is expected to rise to 70,000 tons in a short while. Romania also continues planting hazelnuts as well as Armenia, Ukraine and Bulgaria. The increasing prices orient even some of the South American countries toward hazelnut plantation.”
According to the FTG, “The world’s hazelnut exports have increased nearly 2.8 percent over the last 10 years while Turkey’s production has grown by 3.6 percent on average. Turkey determines the world’s hazelnut prices with some little deviations.”
However, some of the countries that have begun hazelnut production recently increase their chances in foreign markets because their production costs are very low compared to Turkey, the group warned. “These countries have also high efficiency in their production. This situation will reduce Turkey’s competition potential in foreign markets as others become a strong competitor.”
© 2009 Hurriyet Daily News URL: www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=hazelnut-prices-reach-a-peak-2010-03-21

Weekly Cashews Update

MAR 20, 2010

The upward move in Cashew prices continued in Week 11 – in all grades now but significantly more in W320s. There was good demand from USA and some from Europe & other markets (two weeks it was Europe which was more active). This week, business has been done for W240 upto 3.05, W320 upto 2.80 and W450 upto 2.60 FOB. As we always see in a rising market, some processors sold at slightly higher levels to regular & off markets.

RCN prices in all origins have also moved up – India & Vietnam approx 1100, Benin around 950, IVC around 775 C&F. Shipments from Benin & IVC will start next week. In all origins, people have started talking of concerns – delays and possible shortages. Some of this may turn out to be true but it is too early in the season to say for sure. As we said earlier, for next few weeks, market will be driven by a lot of unconfirmed “news” but there is no alternative because reliable information is not available.

There is no change in fundamentals – supply seems comfortable (unless the worst rumours are true) & demand is steady (decline/low growth in some markets and steady to strong growth in others). Cashew usage is more supply led than other nuts – everything produced is consumed. Carryover is generally small (operational inventories at each stage) unless there is a big change in production from one year to the next (which we have not seen in a long time).

Geographical distribution of cashew usage has changed dramatically – over 50% of the world cashews are now consumed in Asia compared to less than 25% about 10 years ago. Problems of 2008 (world economy in general and cashew industry in particular) + inventory financing constraints + reduced risk appetite + uncertainty of demand trends (economic situation affecting mood of the consumer) have resulted in change in buying patterns of the roasters & retailers. All this has increased the proportion of spot & nearby buying and added to the volatility of market.

These developments will require all stakeholders to change their decision making process and selling / buying strategies. In uncertain (and consequently volatile) situations, the best form of defence seems to be participate at all levels to have a reasonable average rather than act when you have to (because that may not be the right time in the cycle to sell or buy).

Unless something dramatic happens with crops in more than one origin in the next few months when 1.50 million tons are to be traded, a wide trading range of 2.50-3.00 for W320 seems to have been established for 2010 (within this range, we will see more volatility for 6-8 weeks and then a narrower range in the third quarter).

Please tell me your views on market situation + comments / forecast of demand & market trend + any other info & news


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, March 15, 2010

Weekly cashews update

MAR 13, 2010


Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 10 – especially for W320. There was not much volume traded but undertone was firm. Most of the limited business was with USA but there were some sales to Europe & other markets too. W320 were traded from 2.60 to 2.70 FOB. Prices for other grades also moved up a bit e.g. W240 around 3.00 and W450 around 2.50 FOB. Large processors are still not offering.

RCN prices moved up by 50-75 dollars i.e. Benin from 875 to 930-940 C&F, IVC from 720-730 to 775-780 C&F. Reports of slow arrivals in Benin and delays in resolving tax & movement issues in IVC seems to have caused this spike. Except for some shipments from Nigeria, physical movements from other WA origins have not started yet. Indian RCN prices moved up about 100 dollars a ton (not much impact for exporting processors but can have sentimental effect if they continue to remain high). So far, there is no definite indication of crop size in any origin but overall, everything seems to point to normal crops.

Crop news & perceptions – and rumours - will keep the market volatile for next few months when over 1.50 million tons of RCN (nearly 75% of the world production) is to be traded. This is not the best time to take long or large positions but changed market dynamics may force processors & buyers to do so during this volatile period.

Kernel offtake news is confusing. After strong growth in SH 2009, Asia is quiet now (this is normal for this time of the year). Europe reports lower usage whereas USA seems to be slightly better (inventories in both markets seem to be low as spot prices are reported to be high). Other markets have more or less steady growth.

Recent rally in kernel market seems to be due to (1) natural correction after big drop from 2.95 to 2.50 (2) covering by traders who have made sales for FH 2010 in last quarter of 2009 when prices were higher (3) some fresh business by roasters (4) caution buying due to high RCN prices. It is to be seen whether this is a temporary spurt and prices will drift lower again when RCN arrivals pick up OR whether prices will stabilize around current levels.

Volume traded has been small when market moved from 2.95 to 2.50 and also when it moved back from 2.50 to 2.70 FOB. Just as buyers have less cover for second half, processors also do not have any big sales for forwards. Who has to move first – processors or buyers – will determine price range in medium term. Meanwhile, steady buying for nearbys will provide a floor to the market.

Would appreciate your comments on market situation, views & forecast of demand + price trend and any other news + info


Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Friday, March 12, 2010

WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT


R.L. “Pete” Turner March 11, 2010

WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT

CROP:

Walnut distribution continues to remain strong with February inshell equivalent shipments at 31,154 tons. My projection was 25,000 tons so my forecast loosing streak has now reach six straight months!

Inshell shipments to China/Hong Kong and Turkey continue at record levels, however, Shelled shipments to Korea, Japan, Germany and Spain are also at all time highs. In addition, domestic shipments are at record levels.

To date, total California Walnut shipments are 310,635 tons (inshell eqv.) compared to 203,982 tons last year; an increase of 52 percent. However, last years shipments are somewhat skewed because of the world financial meltdown, never the less, current shipments remains significant and will continue to drive and keep the market firm right up to new crop.

Many walnut packers have withdrew from the market and will remain off until they are assured their remaining inventories are significant to cover forward commitments. My guess is that some will come up short; however, others will most likely have extra material and will come back on the market as they get furtherer into their crack out.

Now, for what ever it is worth, my forward projections shows the industry will ship 456,405 tons (inshell eqv.) by September 1st. If so, this would give us a carry-over of 37,700 tons, 20,000 tons less than last year. Thus, even if we have another record crop, the industry should still be in a good inventory position going into the new crop year.

Although the qualities of the earlier walnuts were above average, the later material did not fair as well. Many packers are reporting that the Chandler quality really dropped off, especially on the material that was caught in the late October storm. Most of the other varieties seem to have missed most of the damage during this period.

California Walnut Shipment Recap


Month (February, 2010)
2008/09
Year to Date
2009/10
Year to Date
Difference (ytd)


Inshell Pounds (000)
9,663
122,459
8,017
189,540
67,081
55%

-

Shelled Pounds (000)
19,361
129,905
23,671
188,234
58,329
45%

-

Total (Inshell eqv. tons)
26,108
203,982
31,154
310,635
106,653
52%



Market:

Inshell Jumbo Harleys have been trading on both sides of $1.45 with Inshell Chandlers around $1.60. Inshell Howards and Tulare’s are about $0.05 less than the Chandlers.

Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces are solid at $3.95 with most packers asking (and some getting) $4.00. Regular Light Halves and Pieces are trading on both sides of $3.85 and Combination Light Halves and Pieces are firm at $3.50 and above. Medium and Small material are either at or slightly above the Halves and Pieces prices.

It is my projection that the market will most likely mature around the current levels and because of the short inventory situation; I do not see any downward movement until new crop harvest.

So far, the overall weather has been good for the orchards and most of the industry leaders believe we will see another record year from the 2010 crop. However, we will not get much crop feedback until the Handlers issue their “subjective” estimate in late July.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Pete








Monday, March 08, 2010

Pistachios Reduces cancer risk


Berlin, Germany - Eating pistachios daily may reduce the risk of lung and other cancers, according to a US study cited by the German Lung Foundation.
The nuts are a rich source of gamma-tocopherol, a form of vitamin E and, as such, an antioxidant. Antioxidants are substances thought to protect cells from damage that can be caused by molecules known as free radicals. This protection could help prevent cancer from developing, the foundation said.
It pointed out, however, that pistachios had a high fat content and eating large quantities of them could cause weight gain.
The foundation cited a recent study conducted at Texas Woman's University - Houston Centre. Half of the study's participants were given 68 grams of pistachios daily for four weeks in addition to their normal diet. Afterwards, the level of gamma-tocopherol in their bodies was found to be significantly higher than that of the control group.
There is no need to fear a vitamin E overdose, the foundation noted. It said that vitamin E, in contrast to other fat-soluble vitamins, was not stored in the body's fatty tissue, but was quickly excreted by the liver and kidneys.

Weekly Cashews Update


MAR 6, 2010

There was good activity in the Cashew market in week 9 – mainly for W320 for which prices moved up a few cents to 2.60-2.65 FOB. Reasonable volume was sold for Mar-Jun shipments to European traders (and some to USA as well). Prices for other grades were unchanged i.e. W240 between 2.85-2.90 and W450 between 2.40-2.45 FOB. Vietnam has been selling few cents lower than India. Large processors in both origins are not offering.

Offers for WA RCN were little higher than last couple of weeks but no new business is being done. So far, it seems that crops in all origins will be normal to good. Physical movements will start next week and after that we may see some new trades.

It is to be seen whether the demand for kernels continues to remain strong in the coming weeks – if so, the prices will remain steady. Otherwise they will drift down to the 2.50 level. If prices dip below 2.50, we will see some more covering by traders and probably some new buying by the roasters. We do not see any reason for big decline in kernel prices unless RCN prices come down substantially during Mar/Apr.

As we have been saying for some time, the timing of the next big buying by roasters in Europe & USA needs to be watched closely – if it happens in Mar/Apr, prices will move up a bit. If it gets delayed to May/Jun, prices may drift a little lower from current levels.

Given the present fundamentals, it would be reasonable to expect a floor of 2.40 and a top of 2.80 for W320 for most of 2010. This is a wide range - we do not expect prices to remain at either end for too long (unless something dramatic happens) and it would probably be a good idea for both sellers and buyers to cover portions of their positions at all levels, rather than waiting for the top or the bottom.

For the next few weeks, we expect market to be volatile with periodic bursts of activity when prices will rise or dip depending on kernel buying/selling interest and RCN news & rumours.

Please let me know your views on market situation, demand and price trends and any other information / news.

Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat

Monday, March 01, 2010

weekly Cashew Update

FEB 27, 2010

There was some activity in the Cashew market in week 8. Prices were almost the same i.e. W240 between 2.85 and 2.90, W320 between 2.55 and 2.60 and W450 between 2.40 and 2.45 FOB. Off markets and Indian domestic market were quiet – there has been some decline in prices for brokens in the Indian market.

No fresh news on RCN front – Quotes for WA are around 875 C&F for Benin, 725 C&F for IVC, 675-700 C&F for Nigeria for April shipment. As reported earlier, business for Mar / FH Apr shipment was done at higher levels few weeks ago. Until physical movements start, both sellers & buyers not keen to commit additional quantities. For the time being, everything points to normal supplies in all origins.

On the kernel side, there seems to be reasonable (not very big) interest at current levels for Mar-May shipments. It is quite possible that buyers may drop their buying ideas if volume of offers increases but large processors in both origins are not offering and this is providing a floor to the market for the time being.

Some traders are offering SH 2010 deliveries at lower levels - although no trades are reported, this could induce some more selling interest at current levels for nearbys. Buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover. This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation (actual or perceived).

We continue to feel that market is very delicately poised – it could move either way, depending on the timing of the next round of big buying (especially because very little business has been done so far for second half shipments). Reduced liquidity means more volatility – slight increase in selling or buying interest can tip the market.

If the processors decide to sell for SH before buying RCN, we could see prices come off from current levels (for kernels as well as RCN). On the other hand, if buyers need to buy for SH in the next 4-6 weeks, we will see market stabilising around current levels. This would keep RCN prices steady and could lead to higher kernel prices in the second half.

In the short term, market has a soft bias due to slow buying + impending new crops. In the medium term, there is potential for some increase in prices in the latter part of the year if demand grows with lower prices. External factors will continue to have increasing impact on demand and market trend.

Please let me know your comments on current situation, views & forecast of demand + market trend and any other news & info


Regards,Pankaj N. Sampat