As we said last week the market has softened and levels are very low. We feel that this is the floor and won’t go any lower, the price of Tanzanian RCN, is trading for $1,400 per metric ton and there isn’t a lot of seed on the market so price could probably go higher. The other seed won’t be available till 1st QTR which means earliest around March. Most factories are not producing at all and those that are, are producing small quantities since they don’t want to sell at these low prices.
Traditionally when pricing hits this low level interest goes up and the price moves up along with that interest. We strongly advise to book both SPOT and 1st QTR needs now. Our pricing reflects these low levels and we have also come down on roasted products by $0.10. Please inquire for forward contracting pricing.
As per our extensive Almond report last week, we have seen some cheaper offers from small packers & traders, and have adjusted accordingly. Large packers haven’t budged on pricing and are still holding firm and the domestic market demand is very high. El Nino predictions have be upped and California got some rain last week but nothing significant at all. Although rain will affect the short term market it will only really make a proper impact 2 years down the line due to the tree damage.
Small snippet of info, we have in terms of the European market which comes from the trading desk at Barrow Lane and Ballard is that many traders have large contracts and went short, now that Spain is out they will have to start buying US product and that could impact pricing and push it higher, it’s something we will keep an eye on.
The pipeline has still not burst and that is why the pricing which we think should come down is still holding strong.
Market is somewhat sideways. The very large Iranian crop means very little buying from China and the strong harvest of 526 million means that price could fall. We will have a better idea when grading is done.
Please find enclosed pictures of our CEO’s recent trip to Vietnam.