Thursday, May 01, 2014

2014 USDA Subjective Almond Crop Estimate

USDA has released 2014 almond crop estimate, subjective.

The subjective forecast for the 2014 California almond production is 1.95 billion pounds. This is 2.5 percent below last year's production of 2.00 billion pounds. Yield is expected to average 2,270 pounds per acre, down 4.6 percent from the 2013 yield of 2,380 pounds per acre.  Forecasted bearing acreage for 2014 is 860 thousand. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 15 to April 29 from a sample of almond growers. After the warmest winter on record for California, the
almond bloom began in early February. The 2014 bloom was one of the earliest almond blooms in memory.
Orchards required irrigation in the winter months due to the lack of precipitation, but rain early in the season offered some temporary relief. Pest and disease pressure has been lower than last year. Overall, the 2014 crop is developing faster than last year and harvest is expected to start early. Water is a concern for many growers this year.

The short version... it's just what we expected.  While the prices of almonds will not "shoot for the moon", we're also not going to see it crash(as buyers were hoping).  The market will remain stable and seller/buyer will be paying close attention as we get closer.  Look to the objective estimate from USDA(which is more accurate) on June 30,2014 12:00PM

-Thomas Kim

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