Thursday, April 10, 2014

Turkish Apricots

The term "when it rains.... it pours" comes to mind.  Drought in CA, Flooding in Bolivia, and now...

Frost in Turkey
c/o Exporter in Turkey

The apricot market was very stable since the beginning of 2013/2014 season due to regular demand from the buyers, strong US$ currency against TL and stable raw material prices depending on the easy availability of apricots. The export prices of apricots were staying at the bottom levels where we have recommended all our buyers to cover up their needs at the subject attractive price levels.

Unfortunately, the situation of the apricot market changed completely few weekend ago due to very effective frost damage on new crop apricots. The night temperatures reported at Malatya were -5 C for Saturday night and -8 C for Sunday night. According to the first reports coming from the growing areas that more than 60%-70% of the new crop apricots are damaged over the weekend. We are expecting the damage to be even higher than 60%-70% levels...

The situation at the growing area should be investigated deeply after the fruit meets with sun during the day time. The damage level will be known better after checking every growing area individually. It is hard to estimate the new crop quantity under current conditions but having a crop with 50.000 m/tons of apricots should be considered an optimistic look to the market.

The carry over quantity from current crop to the new season will be known by May – June 2014. It is impossible to comment on the possible carry over quantity as it is going to be determined by the market’s situation in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, US$ currency decreased substantially against Turkish Lira on April 1, depending on the results of March elections in Turkey. The existing government increased it’s votes in comparison to the last elections therefore Turkish Lira gained value against all foreign currencies. Weaker US$ currency against TL is not a good news for the export prices of all dried fruits, therefore apricot market also effected in a negative way by the new currency levels...

We are not able to offer apricots to our customers under current conditions. We would like to watch the developments in the market during this week, investigate the real damage level on new crop apricots, check the raw material prices and currency to be able to calculate the best possible prices for our buyers. Obviously, the prices of dried apricots will increase dramatically in the coming days and the market will find a new base at higher levels for sure...

We will watch the market and keep you posted about the developments immediately. If you have any concrete inquiry for apricots, please share with us and we will do our best to prepare our special offers asap.

Basically, the only reliable information we currently have is "Uh Oh!!...".  The growers are trying to assess the damages, and until the dust settles, pricing/availability is up in the air.  We are awaiting for more reliable information before we can begin offering recommendations on contracting/purchasing

As always, please contact us if you have any questions.

-Thomas Kim

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