AUG 18, 2012
Cashew market was steady in Week 33 – hardly any business reported although
there was a fair amount of buying interest from some traders in USA &
Europe at lower end of the range. Indian domestic market moved up a bit
but the activity was slow. China demand in Vietnam is also slow but
expected to pick up. Small shellers who were selling at lower levels in June/July have been quiet
for the last few weeks. Most of the other shellers who have RCN to
process till end of the year are waiting to see how kernel market behaves in
coming weeks. As they have paid high prices for the RCN and there is not
much replacement available, they are not keen to sell at lower levels.
Buyers in the main importing regions – USA & Europe – are picking up any
offers they see at the lower end of the current range (for nearbys) BUT
do not seem to be willing to pay the 10-15 cents premium that shellers
are asking for the forwards. This situation is likely to continue until there
is some contracting with retailers.
In normal times, some people – on both sides – would be willing to take forward
positions but the precarious global economic situation is making things
difficult. Buyers do not want to pay premium for securing volume as they
do not know what they will be able to sell. Shellers do not want to sell
forwards at lower end of the range because it is below cost and they do
not know see any prospect of decline in RCN prices since availability in next
few months is limited.
In the medium term, demand will be the factor that will determine market
movement. There is no big news expected on the supply side until the next
Northern crops in 2013. Of course, the Brazil & East Africa 2012 crops
which will start in Sep/Oct will have some impact but not too much as they only
produce 25% of the world crop.
In the next 6-8 weeks, we will know trend of Asian demand for the last quarter
and we will probably get some idea of USA/EU demand for the first half of next
year. If activity picks up in this period, we could see prices inch up a
bit to the levels seen at the end of last year. Otherwise, prices will
continue to move around the current level unless there is a big drop in demand
followed by a decline in RCN prices.
Would be grateful for your comments on market situation + views & forecast
on trend for coming months + any information, news AND interest.
Pankaj N. Sampat