R.L. “Pete” Turner March 11, 2010
WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT
CROP:
Walnut distribution continues to remain strong with February inshell equivalent shipments at 31,154 tons. My projection was 25,000 tons so my forecast loosing streak has now reach six straight months!
Inshell shipments to China/Hong Kong and Turkey continue at record levels, however, Shelled shipments to Korea, Japan, Germany and Spain are also at all time highs. In addition, domestic shipments are at record levels.
To date, total California Walnut shipments are 310,635 tons (inshell eqv.) compared to 203,982 tons last year; an increase of 52 percent. However, last years shipments are somewhat skewed because of the world financial meltdown, never the less, current shipments remains significant and will continue to drive and keep the market firm right up to new crop.
Many walnut packers have withdrew from the market and will remain off until they are assured their remaining inventories are significant to cover forward commitments. My guess is that some will come up short; however, others will most likely have extra material and will come back on the market as they get furtherer into their crack out.
Now, for what ever it is worth, my forward projections shows the industry will ship 456,405 tons (inshell eqv.) by September 1st. If so, this would give us a carry-over of 37,700 tons, 20,000 tons less than last year. Thus, even if we have another record crop, the industry should still be in a good inventory position going into the new crop year.
Although the qualities of the earlier walnuts were above average, the later material did not fair as well. Many packers are reporting that the Chandler quality really dropped off, especially on the material that was caught in the late October storm. Most of the other varieties seem to have missed most of the damage during this period.
California Walnut Shipment Recap
Month (February, 2010)
2008/09
Year to Date
2009/10
Year to Date
Difference (ytd)
Inshell Pounds (000)
9,663
122,459
8,017
189,540
67,081
55%
-
Shelled Pounds (000)
19,361
129,905
23,671
188,234
58,329
45%
-
Total (Inshell eqv. tons)
26,108
203,982
31,154
310,635
106,653
52%
Market:
Inshell Jumbo Harleys have been trading on both sides of $1.45 with Inshell Chandlers around $1.60. Inshell Howards and Tulare’s are about $0.05 less than the Chandlers.
Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces are solid at $3.95 with most packers asking (and some getting) $4.00. Regular Light Halves and Pieces are trading on both sides of $3.85 and Combination Light Halves and Pieces are firm at $3.50 and above. Medium and Small material are either at or slightly above the Halves and Pieces prices.
It is my projection that the market will most likely mature around the current levels and because of the short inventory situation; I do not see any downward movement until new crop harvest.
So far, the overall weather has been good for the orchards and most of the industry leaders believe we will see another record year from the 2010 crop. However, we will not get much crop feedback until the Handlers issue their “subjective” estimate in late July.
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Pete
WALNUT MARKET/CROP REPORT
CROP:
Walnut distribution continues to remain strong with February inshell equivalent shipments at 31,154 tons. My projection was 25,000 tons so my forecast loosing streak has now reach six straight months!
Inshell shipments to China/Hong Kong and Turkey continue at record levels, however, Shelled shipments to Korea, Japan, Germany and Spain are also at all time highs. In addition, domestic shipments are at record levels.
To date, total California Walnut shipments are 310,635 tons (inshell eqv.) compared to 203,982 tons last year; an increase of 52 percent. However, last years shipments are somewhat skewed because of the world financial meltdown, never the less, current shipments remains significant and will continue to drive and keep the market firm right up to new crop.
Many walnut packers have withdrew from the market and will remain off until they are assured their remaining inventories are significant to cover forward commitments. My guess is that some will come up short; however, others will most likely have extra material and will come back on the market as they get furtherer into their crack out.
Now, for what ever it is worth, my forward projections shows the industry will ship 456,405 tons (inshell eqv.) by September 1st. If so, this would give us a carry-over of 37,700 tons, 20,000 tons less than last year. Thus, even if we have another record crop, the industry should still be in a good inventory position going into the new crop year.
Although the qualities of the earlier walnuts were above average, the later material did not fair as well. Many packers are reporting that the Chandler quality really dropped off, especially on the material that was caught in the late October storm. Most of the other varieties seem to have missed most of the damage during this period.
California Walnut Shipment Recap
Month (February, 2010)
2008/09
Year to Date
2009/10
Year to Date
Difference (ytd)
Inshell Pounds (000)
9,663
122,459
8,017
189,540
67,081
55%
-
Shelled Pounds (000)
19,361
129,905
23,671
188,234
58,329
45%
-
Total (Inshell eqv. tons)
26,108
203,982
31,154
310,635
106,653
52%
Market:
Inshell Jumbo Harleys have been trading on both sides of $1.45 with Inshell Chandlers around $1.60. Inshell Howards and Tulare’s are about $0.05 less than the Chandlers.
Chandlers Light Halves and Pieces are solid at $3.95 with most packers asking (and some getting) $4.00. Regular Light Halves and Pieces are trading on both sides of $3.85 and Combination Light Halves and Pieces are firm at $3.50 and above. Medium and Small material are either at or slightly above the Halves and Pieces prices.
It is my projection that the market will most likely mature around the current levels and because of the short inventory situation; I do not see any downward movement until new crop harvest.
So far, the overall weather has been good for the orchards and most of the industry leaders believe we will see another record year from the 2010 crop. However, we will not get much crop feedback until the Handlers issue their “subjective” estimate in late July.
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
Pete
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