Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Almonds Market update from Ned

Dear Friends:

Happy New Year! We are off to a quiet start as the almonds market prices remain steady to slightly lower from last month. Almond Board Position Report for December was released last Tuesday showing record shipments for December at 94.5 million (just ahead of last December‘s 94 mil) and record crop receipts of 1.314 billion. We expect total receipts to be in the range of 1.350 to 1.360 billion—a little more than the 1.330 billion estimate. As for the market, buyers are holding off covering more at this time in hopes of lower prices. Most handlers are holding firm at present prices, so we have a standoff. Commitments remain ahead of last year and most handlers are busy shipping this month, so we don’t expect much price decline in the near future. Buyers and sellers will be watching pollination outlook a month from now as we begin bloom. These observations will affect market prices up or down. We always recommend covering needs gradually over the crop year for an average price and minimum risk.

Here is how the supply looks for the remaining 7 months of the crop year—same as projected last month:
Carry in Aug 1, 2007 134 mil lbs
2007 crop marketable (97%) 1320
Supply 1454
Shipments expected 1200 (1066 last year + 13%)
Carry out July 31, 2008 254

Now that the supply is known, the only variable is demand. Year to date, we have shipped 14% more than last year. We need to ship 10 to 15% more, which would leave a carryout of 225 to 275 mil lbs, so need to keep up the present pace of shipments. As always, we have the potential for price decrease (slowing shipments &/or good pollination) and for price increase (stronger shipments &/or poor pollination). Following prices are at the asking or trading level. Many buyers are looking for .05 to .10/lb lower:

Following are market prices, unpasteurized.
2007 crop
Nonpareil Supreme 23/25 2.70
Nonpareil Supreme 27/30 2.35
Carmel SSR 23/25 AOL 2.30
Butte SSR 27/30 AOL 2.05
Cal Std unsized 5% 1.90
Blanched Sliced 2.75

Please send your comments and questions.

Best regards, Ned

Ned T Ryan

1 comment:

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