Weekly Cashews Market Update
Nov 3, 2007
Cashew prices moved up again middle of this week – volume traded was limited due to reluctance of processors. Business was done W240 at 2.70/72, W320 at 2.35/37 and W450 at 2.20/22 FOB (there are rumours of some sales few cents higher as well). Most of the business was for nearbys but there were reports of some sales for forwards as well.
Vietnam is reported to have sold reasonable quantities in last two weeks, and they seem to be willing to sell few cents lower than India for 2008 shipments. Brazil is relatively quiet and this was probably the trigger for firming up of market at this time – buyers who were waiting & hoping to cover Nov-Mar shipments from Brazil are now buying from other origins due to lack of any big selling interest from Brazil. Unless Brazil is able to offer reasonable quantities in coming weeks, firmness will continue
Tanzania RCN has still not started moving. Until the stalemate is resolved, Indian processors will be reluctant to make any large sales for 2008 shipments as they do not know what price they will have to pay for seed for first quarter processing. And this will have impact on RCN pricing at the beginning of India, Vietnam, West Africa as well
Market is currently influenced by unusual tightness in supply of RCN (normally at this time Tanzania & Brazil crops should be in full swing). If buyers continue to buy aggressively in coming weeks, we might see a new higher range being established for 2008. But if they slow down after covering immediate needs, we will see prices stabilising around current levels for next few months. Next indicator for price trend for second half 2008 will be the Northern Hemisphere crops beginning in March
Market is very delicately poised and so, a time to be careful
Would appreciate your views on current market situation, forecast for demand and price trends in 2008 and any other news or info