Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Pecan Market Update March 26, 2007

The cold storage holdings for the period ending February 28th show 201 million pounds. This is almost exactly the same as the period that ended January 31st. In reality, you might say the peak that normally comes in February really peaked in January. This has occurred before, but too long ago to remember exactly when – 15 or 20 years ago.

The reasons for this crop peaking earlier than normal are as follows:

The total supply picture, as we all realized, was short with this being the off-year.
The commerce numbers released for imports at the end of January shows that we will end up importing approximately 65 million pounds – if we are lucky (See below)

2004 Crop September – January 92,286,513
2005 Crop September – January 80,864,939
2006 Crop September – January 56,942,923

· The other contributing factor is that China obviously has created a market for inshell pecans that is substantially more than any of us realized. An interesting figure in the January commerce exports shows total export of inshell to China of 7,698,460 pounds by the end of January 2007.

Trust me, this has been one of the most confusing years we have seen in my years as a pecan sheller. It’s no wonder why the estimates and guesstimates by the USDA (and all the other organizations) were all over the board. As you can see, all it does is badly confuse the market.

At one time, total supply appeared as though it could have been nearly 433 million pounds. One thing we know for sure is that we all know we must not forget that 20 million pounds one way or the other on a short year can and will effect the market more than when there is an ample supply.

As always, proceed with caution.

Sam DiGregorio

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