Pecan Market Update September 25, 2006
The pecan cold storage report for the month of August has been released. You may note from the attached chart that the July figures were revised to reflect a 12.866 million pound less supply for July. Also, August shows a 28.163 million pound disappearance; therefore, 169 million pounds is reported for the end of August. The September disappearance will complete the pecan calendar year and that number will be our “so called” carry over.
Reportedly, at the NSPA meeting, the estimate for the upcoming crop was 204.5 million pounds. Other discussion at the meeting was that imports would be 67 million pounds. For many reasons, it is becoming more and more difficult to rely on some of these numbers given the vast differences – especially the import estimate.
One additional estimate for the US Crop will be made available by the USDA on October 10th. Let’s see what they report.
To date, we have been blessed with Mother Nature cooperating and there has been no significant harm to the upcoming crop aside from some hail damage reported in New Mexico. This type of damage normally is isolated.
At this time, we feel that without any adverse weather conditions, the crop could produce north of 200 million pounds. Add in the estimated carry over of 140 million pounds and more likely import estimation of 90 million pounds – leaves us with a total estimated supply picture of 430 million pounds. Hopefully this will allow for prices to come down this coming year.
As always, our goal is to report it to you the way it is and we promise to continually do so. We also usually close with proceed with caution and this is especially true today.
Please feel free to call if you have any questions.