Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Pecans As promised, we are back with more information regarding the total supply picture for the 2006 pecan crop season.
We have just received the following:

Cold Storage Holdings for the end of June show 234.7 million pounds of inshell equivalent. This shows a disappearance of 12.9 million pounds.
Two estimates have now been released from the Texas Grower’s Association and are as follows:
Kyle Brookshire Estimated 2006 US Pecan Crop 165 million pounds
Kenneth Pape Estimated 2006 US Pecan Crop 196 million pounds

As anticipated, we just completed our 22nd annual pecan crop estimation. Year in and year out, we have studied the same farms and the same trees to obtain our own opinion of what the future holds with upcoming crops. In doing this, as of today, we have estimated the upcoming 2006 pecan crop to total approximately 200 million pounds. Of course we still have many months before harvest begins, so we will need to watch it closely until then and report any possible changes.

In summation, we now have five estimates and they are as follows:

Louisiana (1) 159 million pounds (See Attached)
Louisiana (2) 171 million pounds (See Attached)
Texas (1) 165 million pounds (See Attached)
Texas (2) 196 million pounds (See Attached)
SNC (1) 200 million pounds (See Attached)

Aside from the above estimates, we will also have estimates from the annual sheller’s meeting in September along with the USDA’s annual estimate on or about October 10th.

It is important for us to point out that in our last market update, we showed an average disappearance in cold storage holdings of 95.7 million pounds from the end of May through the end of September. Now, it seems that the disappearance from the end of May until the end of June is somewhat of a disappointment compared to some past years. Still, the average disappearance for the month of June is 15.6 million pounds and the numbers published only show a 12.9 million pound disappearance. If this trend continues, we are still looking at a 150 + million pound carry in for the 2006 pecan season.

We will be back to you soon with more news.

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