Update

The last few weeks have been stop and start for us due to the Jewish Holidays but it’s all done now and back to normal.

Some good changes, some bad, please find attached our reviewed price list and a brief market overview.

Cashews.

The market has softened in price, especially with product out of India. This nice drop in price is due to the slowdown of Indian export, according to the Indian CEPCI last year this time exports numbers were at 61,866, while this year its 55,471, when you have a 10% drop you know you have to do something and that’s exactly what has happened, this will of course have a knock on effect to Vietnam pricing which will have to adjust.

The lack of consumption by China which India didn’t take advantage of has left them in a position where they have to move product even while complaining about the high price of seed. It’s a good time to book, saying that the PIECES market is still strong and that due to the demand still being high with a short supply.

Almonds.

We have seen a tiny adjustment and offers are trickling out. Asia has been serviced with their requirements and now the focus will be squarely on the domestic market and growers are starting to ship. Rain is still a HUGE factor and while most growers live in fear of a continued drought, they do need to move inventory and can’t just do nothing as much they want to sit and stockpile. While I wouldn’t call this a market softening its more “we have wiggle room”. We are strongly advising to cover your QTR needs because if no rain should fall its highly likely that they will take themselves of the market again, but with a contract they will have to supply product no matter what.

Pecans.

Very interesting market, we are seeing cheaper offers for product from growers and we have adjusted our price accordingly. Some growers are offering cheaper in-shell product much the same as last year. Pecans must be seen as “the likeable but not needed for the party cousin in the nuts family” and while the Almonds farmers have confidence the Pecans guys don’t, hence the movement of price is more erratic and it can be a risky commodity to take large positions. The product is not as saturated or imbedded and pricing is not as stable. Now is the time to keep trading and moving in and out as per your needs. It would be risky to forward book at a price to far out because of this inherent mentality which we have seen in the past.

Pistachio.
Still no real offers, and hearing even less. Rumors of a large amount of blanks are still just rumors but the growers coming in and out TWICE would lend credence that it could very well be the case. Iran’s Pistachio is not going to be a factor. We feel this product is going to go up in price over the course of the year. 

Update

Last week was a short week with the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah, Happy New Year and I apologize for the lack of report and pricing. Even with the lack of the report there has been plenty of action and the lead up to the season has seen a flurry of business.

Cashews

The upward price continues to climb and we believe it will do so till January. Demand is very high and it’s looking like a bumper season in terms of demand. India and Vietnam besides for all the bad decisions they have made over the course of this year know that this is the time to strike and are taking advantage of this demand by asking high prices and getting it. We don’t see much changing and with the return of heavy buying from China price could stay but most likely to continue to rise. It’s not going down, even Jan forward contract are high but will that hold remains to be seen. LP is a freak of nature, price is still very yet demand hasn’t abated.  

Almonds

It’s been a mess of indecision, first growers offered then they pulled of the market and made us wait, made me feel like being at a high school prom all over again. Well it seems the wait may finally be over and now that they have finished the crop and know the numbers (which looks to be more at the 1,75BL number) they will reopen the books next week and we should be business as usual. Offers we are seeing right now are from traders that booked heavily last crop or sprang into action in the short window of offers and are riding the wave and making good money, in this case the risk was worth the reward. Next week will give us clarity and we should be able to offer out forward booking. Saying that don’t expect any huge price change, the drought continues to be a huge issue and very worrying.

Pistachios

Crop news isn’t great isn’t terrible, it’s been a decent crop with some amount of blanks, we know as well that there has been a very low carry over from last year’s crop. We have been pushed of week after week but we are told that next week finally pricing will be offered. Saying that one large grower did dip his toe into the water and offered out for one day at decent pricing then closed shop the day after. We feel that they are going to want to go out where last year’s crop left off and we thing think its going to fly as the market has been robust at the $5.20 - $5.40 level, saying that and we should see some decent pricing very soon and have proper knowledge.

Pecans

New crop is irrelevant as its going to miss the season and the growers know this but they also know that we know it’s been an excellent crop year. So current spot pricing is high and they are holding firm because they want to protect old crop pricing before announcing new crop price. The also want to keep the price high using a futile attempt that all other nuts has gone up in pricing why can’t Pecans be like Almonds (because all nuts are not created equal) , it’s not going to happen. For now we advise to buy what is needed spot and cover needs. (same thing we have said last three months)

Walnuts

Another good crop but as per last report very little offers due the pipeline, since there is virtually no old crop on the market the growers have to get export crop out before they can service domestic properly but we hope we are going to see a nice price reduction.